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Influence of solar activity and large-scale climate phenomena on extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

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Abstract

The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is an important strategic area in China. However, frequent extreme precipitation events have caused great economic losses and human casualties in this region. In this article, we explore the spatial and temporal links between extreme precipitation events and Sunspot Number (SSN), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in this important economic belt. According to the research findings, all of the extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) except for consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) showed an upward trend in the YREB over the 59 years. The spatial distributions of very wet days (R95p), extremely wet days (R99p), max 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) and max 5-day precipitation amount (Rx5day) had similar distribution patterns, showing decreasing trends from east to west. The EPIs generally had a 2–4-year band, suggesting stronger and more elusive changes. The wavelet coherence (WTC) spectra suggested that SSN, ENSO, AO, and PDO have different effects on extreme precipitation events during different time periods. Before 1985, the SSN, ENSO, AO, PDO and extreme precipitation events shared similar oscillation periods, but after 1985, their oscillation periods were no longer consistent with each other. In addition, solar activity and the AO mainly had negative correlations with extreme precipitation events, while the ENSO and PDO had predominantly positive correlations with the EPIs. This paper provides a reference for national economic strategic planning and natural resource management in the YREB.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the Key Laboratory of Groundwater Remediation of Hebei Province and China Geological Survey (SK202303), the Open Fund of Hubei Key Laboratory of Yangtze Catchment Environmental Aquatic Science (No. YEAS2021-3-03) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) (Nos. CUGDCJJ202212 and 1910491T05). We would like to acknowledge the contribution of Dr. Bin Ma for providing insightful advice, and also acknowledge Mrs. Jie Yuan and Mrs. Yue Ma of China University of Geosciences for helping with the meteorological data collection. Thank two reviewers and Editor for the insightful comments and suggestions on our manuscript.

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  1. Yi Wu and Lin Zhang have contributed equally to this work and should be considered as co-first authors.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, China

    Yi Wu, Lin Zhang, Zhixin Zhang, Jingyun Ling & Wenling Chen

  2. School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, China

    Shiqi Yang

  3. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, China

    Jingjing Si

  4. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-3115, USA

    Hongbin Zhan

  5. Key Laboratory of Groundwater Remediation of Hebei Province and China Geological Survey, Shijiazhuang, 050061, China

    Wenling Chen

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Contributions

YW: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Investigation, Data Curation, Writing–Original Draft, Writing - Review & Editing; LZ: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data Curation, Writing–Original Draft, Writing - Review & Editing, Project administration; ZZ: Investigation, Data Curation, Supervision; JL: Investigation, Data Curation, Supervision; SY: Validation, Investigation, Data Curation, Supervision; JS: Investigation, Data Curation, Supervision; HZ: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Resources, Writing–Review & Editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration, Funding acquisition; WC: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Resources, Writing–Review & Editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration, Funding acquisition.

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Correspondence to Hongbin Zhan or Wenling Chen.

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Wu, Y., Zhang, L., Zhang, Z. et al. Influence of solar activity and large-scale climate phenomena on extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 38, 211–231 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02573-3

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