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Economic growth and pollutant emissions in China: a spatial econometric analysis

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Abstract

This paper studies the emissions of SO2 and COD in China using fine-scale, countylevel data. Using a widely used spatial autocorrelation index, Moran’s I statistics, we first estimate the spatial autocorrelations of SO2 and COD emissions. Distinct patterns of spatial concentration are identified. To investigate the driving forces of emissions, we then use spatial econometric models, including a spatial error model (SEM) and a spatial lag model (SLM), to evaluate the effects of variables that reflect level of economic development, population density, and industrial structure. Our results show that these explanatory variables are highly correlated with the level of SO2 and COD emissions, though their impacts on SO2 and COD vary. Compared to ordinary least square regression, the advantages of SLM and SEM are demonstrated as they effectively reveal the existence and significance of spatial dependence. The SEM, in particular, is chosen over the SLM as the role of spatial correlation is stronger in the error model than in the lag model. Based on the research results, we present some preliminary policy recommendations, especially for those high–high cluster regions that face significant environmental degradation and challenge.

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Notes

  1. China had been implementing 5-year plans that outline social and economic development initiatives. From 2006, the name of the 11th 5-year program was changed to “guideline” in order to more accurately reflect China’s transition from a planned economy to a socialist market economy, or “socialism with Chinese characteristics”.

  2. In this paper, “counties” refer to county-level administrative units, which are mostly counties, but also include autonomous counties and county-level cities.

  3. “Hu Huanyong Line”, also known as “Aihui-Tenchong Line”, is an imaginary line proposed by Chinese population geographer Hu Huanyong in 1935 by connecting two places—Aihui, Heilongjiang Province in the northeast and Tengchong, Yunnan Province in the southwest. West of the line, land and population respectively accounted for 57 and 4 % of the national total in 1935 (about 57 and 6 % in today), while east of the line, land and population respectively accounted for 43 and 96 % of the national total in 1935 (about 43 and 94 % in today). For more description of the concept, see Naughton (2007).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND, USA

    Enru Wang

  2. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Qian Li & Jinping Song

  3. China National Environmental Monitoring Center, Beijing, 100012, China

    Qian Li, Jianhui Zhang & Yeyao Wang

  4. Environmental Information Center, Beijing, 100029, China

    Hao Hu

Authors
  1. Qian Li
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  2. Jinping Song
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  3. Enru Wang
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  4. Hao Hu
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  5. Jianhui Zhang
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  6. Yeyao Wang
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Correspondence to Enru Wang.

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Li, Q., Song, J., Wang, E. et al. Economic growth and pollutant emissions in China: a spatial econometric analysis. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28, 429–442 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0762-6

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