Abstract
The detection and the functioning of the mid-summer drought (MSD) represent valuable information due to its socio-economic implications for the Caribbean. Current methods using local-scale rainfall to define the MSD have some limitations. This paper presents a novel approach to detect MSD from regional-scale weather types (WT). Long sequences of a typical summertime anticyclonic WT allow the detection of the onset and demise dates of the MSD for most years in 1950–2021. The MSD defined with WT (MSD-WT) begins rather abruptly on June 13th and concludes on August 21st, on average. While the interannual variations of the MSD-WT onset are relatively weak, long-term trends since 1950 indicate progressive earlier onsets, longer durations, and weakening intensities of the MSD-WT. Our results do not show the anticipated westward shift of the North Atlantic subtropical high pressure typically related to MSD. Instead, they indicate a halt of its eastward shift close to the MSD-WT onset. The absence of significant correlations between MSD-WT onset and either the Tropical North Atlantic or the Eastern Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in May–June also suggests a mostly intrinsic atmospheric mechanism locked to the annual cycle, thus limiting the seasonal predictability of the MSD-WT onset. Furthermore, our results indicate a lag between the timing of increased subsidence, acceleration of the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ), and intensification of the deep convection over Central America and Mexico. This leads us to develop a novel hypothesis putting forward the monsoon circulation over Meso-America as a potential precursor of the increased subsidence over the Caribbean basin and the synchronous acceleration of CLLJ. The MSD-WT demise is more gradual and corresponds to a decrease in regional-scale mean sea level pressure and a weakening of the CLLJ. MSD-WT demise dates exhibit also relatively larger interannual variations but, unlike its onset, do not show any significant long-term trend. Anomalously warm (cold) Tropical North Atlantic and cold (warm) East Pacific SST from early June are correlated with an earlier (later) MSD-WT demise than usual. MSD-WT demise seems to involve regional-scale air-sea couplings and exhibits thus more seasonal predictability. Finally, despite a consistent response to the CLLJ, distinct processes seem to produce the relatively dry conditions observed over the Pacific coast of Central America and the Caribbean basin during the MSD.
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Data availibility
All data used in this study is publicly available. ERA5 reanalysis are available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu). Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) from UCSB are available from International Research Institute for CLimate and Society (https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.UCSB/.CHIRPS/), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks- Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) from NOAA (https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NASA/.GPCP/.V2p3/.CDR/index.html?Set-Language=en). Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Daily Precipitation Analysis Climate Data Record (CDR) from NOAA are freely available from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/global-precipitation-climatology-project-gpcp-daily/access/.
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IG and VM designed the study. All authors contributed to the material preparation, data collection and analysis. IG wrote the first draft of the manuscript and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript.
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Gouirand, I., Moron, V. & Sing, B. Defining a Caribbean regional-scale mid-summer drought based on weather types from 1950 to 2021. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07111-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07111-7