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Evaluation of COWCLIP2.0 Ocean wave extreme indices over the Indian Ocean

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Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of 39 CMIP5 models participating in the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project phase 2 (COWCLIP2.0) for simulating extreme significant wave height (SWH) indices in the Indian Ocean (IO) for the 26-year period from 1979 to 2005, using the ERA5 wave reanalysis as observation proxy. The multiple skill metrics of bias, root mean square error (RMSE), relative error (RE), interannual variability skill-score (IVS), comprehensive rating index (CRI), and total ranking (TR) are utilized to evaluate the CMIP5 models consisting of four clusters (ECCC(s), CSIRO, ECCC(d), and JRC) over the Northern IO (NIO), SouthernTropical IO (STIO), and Southern IO (SIO) sub-domains. The three extreme SWH indices are considered: rough wave days (HsRo), high wave days (HsHi), and top decile wave spell duration indicator (HHsDI). Climatology evaluation results indicate that the ECCC(s) cluster models and MME exhibit better agreements with the ERA5 reanalysis data (with smaller biases, RMSEs, and REs) than the other clusters over all sub-domains for HsRo and HsHi indices. Whereas most models display reasonable skills at simulating interannual variability of HsRo, HsHi is poorly captured by all clusters over the NIO and STIO, with a large inter-model spread in IVS values. HHsDI is found to be simulated well by all clusters regarding the climatology pattern and interannual variability, reflecting the characteristics of percentile-based indices. Integrated assessment based on CRI and TR analysis confirms the overall superiority of ECCC(s) cluster models in simulating mean and interannual variability of extreme SWH indices over all IO subdomains.

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Data Availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Abbreviations

COWCLIP2.0:

Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project phase 2

SWH:

Significant wave height

IO:

Indian Ocean

RMSE:

Root mean square error

RE:

Relative error

IVS:

Interannual variability skill-score

CRI:

Comprehensive rating index

TR:

Total ranking

NIO:

Northern Indian Ocean

STIO:

Southern Tropical Indian Ocean

SIO:

Southern Indian Ocean

HsRo:

Rough wave days

HsHi:

High wave days

HHsDI:

Top decile wave spell duration indicator

CMIP:

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

SLP:

Sea level pressure

SLPG:

Sea level pressure gradient

ETCCDI:

Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices

GEV:

Generalized Extreme Value

ECMWF:

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast

MME:

Multi-model ensemble

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Acknowledgements

The present study is supported by Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India under core research grant project file no. (CRG/2021/003654). We would like to thanks the reviewer’s for their sincere suggestions to improve our manuscript.

Funding

The present study is supported by Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India under core research grant project file no. (CRG/2021/003654).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Applied Sciences, National Institute of Technology, Delhi, India

    Sukhwinder Kaur & Prashant Kumar

  2. Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, Korea

    Seung-Ki Min & Athira Krishnan

  3. Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, 04-2023, Canada

    Xiolan L. Wang

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  1. Sukhwinder Kaur
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Contributions

Sukhwinder Kaur: Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Validation; Prashant Kumar: Conceptualization, Visualization Methodology, Supervision, Reviewing and Editing; Seung-ki Min: Conceptualization, Methodology, Visualization, Investigation, Supervision Writing- Reviewing and Editing; Athira Krishnan: 4Visualization, Writing- Reviewing and Editing; Xiolan L Wang: Visualization, Writing- Reviewing and Editing;

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Correspondence to Prashant Kumar or Seung-Ki Min.

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Kaur, S., Kumar, P., Min, SK. et al. Evaluation of COWCLIP2.0 Ocean wave extreme indices over the Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 61, 5747–5765 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06882-9

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