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The distinct impacts of the two types of ENSO on rainfall variability over Southeast Asia

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Abstract

This study investigates the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki on rainfall variability over Southeast Asia (SEA) with a focus on its twenty sub-regions. For the period 1979–2019, seven El Niño (EN), six La Niña (LN), five El Niño Modoki (EM), and five La Niña Modoki (LM) events were identified. In the boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) of EN events, rainfall reduction occurred over the Maritime Continent and the Philippines except for West Philippines in JJA and West Kalimantan in DJF. Similar patterns but with enhanced drier/wetter conditions were detected during EM. During LN, rainfall increased in most sub-regions except for West Philippines and parts of mainland Indochina in JJA, and in DJF in some southern areas such as South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, and Papua. Compared to LN, LM generally exhibited less wet/drier conditions in JJA over most sub-regions and wetter conditions in DJF over a major part of the Maritime Continent. The decrease (increase) in rainfall over SEA during Modoki events compared to the canonical ENSO events was explained by a reduced (enhanced) moisture transport into the region and a weakening (strengthening) of the ascending branch of the Walker circulation.

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the LOTUS international joint laboratory (lotus.usth.edu.vn) funded by IRD, and the Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) under Grant 105.06-2021.14. Hue Nguyen-Thanh’s Ph.D. thesis is supported by the French Embassy in Vietnam via the scholarship of Excellence.

Funding

This study was supported by the LOTUS international joint laboratory (lotus.usth.edu.vn) funded by IRD and the Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) under Grant 105.06-2021.14. Hue Nguyen-Thanh’s Ph.D. thesis is supported by the French Embassy in Vietnam via the scholarship of Excellence.

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All authors contributed to the writing of the manuscript. HN-T produced figures, processed data, and prepared an initial draft. TN-D and MH supervised the overall work. The study was conceptualized by TN-D.

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Correspondence to Thanh Ngo-Duc.

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Nguyen-Thanh, H., Ngo-Duc, T. & Herrmann, M. The distinct impacts of the two types of ENSO on rainfall variability over Southeast Asia. Clim Dyn 61, 2155–2172 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06673-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06673-2

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