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Mechanisms behind large-scale inconsistencies between regional and global climate model-based projections over Europe

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Abstract

Important discrepancies in the large-scale summer climate change projections were recently detected between the global and regional climate models (RCM/GCM) in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble for several variables including surface temperature, total precipitation, and surface solar radiation. In this study, we use a new experimental framework inspired by the Big-Brother–Little-Brother protocol to explore the mechanisms responsible for generating large-scale discrepancies in future projections between GCM/RCM pairs over Europe in summer. Starting from past and future simulations with a perfect GCM/RCM pair (same resolution, same physics, same forcings), we then disentangle the role of potential sources of GCM/RCM inconsistency by carrying out targeted sensitivity studies. We show that by following such a perfect approach, it is possible to obtain a GCM/RCM pair without statistically significant inconsistencies in projected climate change. Such discrepancies are mainly generated by differences in aerosols representation and atmospheric physics. The role of plant physiology is limited and unlikely to be the dominant factor in the detected discrepancies. Finally, it is unlikely that the discrepancies in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble projections are a result of the upscaled added value, as we show that the effect of increased resolution is not strong enough and mostly limited to areas with complex topography. These findings raise important questions about the current practices in regional climate modelling. In the short term, implementing RCM external forcings consistent with the driving GCM can significantly improve the situation at low cost. In the long term, adopting a seamless strategy in developing the GCM/RCM models should be questioned.

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Data Availability Statement

The datasets and the codes generated for the current study are available under request from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Prof. Dr. Bertrand Denis and Prof. Dr. René Laprise for their feedback on the implementation of 2D-DCT (Discrete Cosine Transform) technique, as well as the development of Big-Brother/Little-Brother experiment which served as inspiration in our work. We would like to thank Dr. Erasmo Buonomo for the fruitful discussion on the assessment of large-scale dynamical consistency of a GCM/RCM pair. We would like to also thank many of our colleagues at the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques with whom we had numerous exchanges about this research project, and particularly Dr. Bertrand Decharme, Dr. Roland Séférian, Dr. Aurélien Ribes and Dr. Jean-François Guérémy. Finally, we are thankful to the EURO-CORDEX modellers for making the runs available.

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The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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  1. Ioan Sabin Taranu

    Present address: Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

    Ioan Sabin Taranu, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias & Christine Delire

  2. CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France

    Julien Boé

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Contributions

IST wrote the main manuscript text, participated in the process of conceptualization and methodology design, did an important part of the formal analysis and visualization. SS designed and supervised the project. Antoinette Alias participated in the process of design, running and validation of the experiments. JB did the analysis of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble data. Christine Delire contributed to the design and validation of the experiment on the plant physiology effect. All authors actively followed the project with regular exchanges, reviewed the manuscript and provided critical feedback.

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Correspondence to Ioan Sabin Taranu.

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Taranu, I.S., Somot, S., Alias, A. et al. Mechanisms behind large-scale inconsistencies between regional and global climate model-based projections over Europe. Clim Dyn 60, 3813–3838 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06540-6

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