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Changes in extreme integrated water vapor transport on the U.S. west coast in NA-CORDEX, and relationship to mountain and inland precipitation

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Abstract

Western U.S. (WUS) rainfall and snowpack vary greatly on interannual and decadal timescales. This combined with their importance to water resources makes future projections of these variables highly societally relevant. Previous studies have shown that precipitation events in the WUS are influenced by the timing, positioning, and duration of extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (e.g., atmospheric rivers) along the coast. We investigate end-of-21st-century projections of WUS precipitation and IVT in a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) from the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). Several of the NA-CORDEX RCMs project a decrease in cool season precipitation at high elevation (e.g., across the Sierra Nevada) with a corresponding increase in the Great Basin of the U.S. We explore the larger-scale controls on this terrain-related precipitation change in a subset of the NA-CORDEX RCMs through an examination of IVT-events. Projected changes in frequency and duration of IVT-events depend on the event’s extremity: by the end of the century extreme IVT-events increase in frequency whereas moderate IVT-events decrease in frequency. Furthermore, in the future, total precipitation across the WUS generally increases during extreme IVT-events, whereas total precipitation from moderate IVT-events decreases across higher elevations. Thus, we argue that the mean cool season precipitation decreases at high elevations and increases in the Great Basin are largely determined by changes in moderate IVT-events which are projected to be less frequent and bring less high-elevation precipitation.

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Data and code availability

Precipitation for both NA-CORDEX and CMIP5 are publicly available. CMIP5 precipitation and temperature data are available to download from the World Climate Research Program at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/ or to visually explore on https://psl.noaa.gov/ipcc/cmip5/. NA-CORDEX precipitation and temperature data can be downloaded from NCAR’s Climate Data Gateway at https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search/cordexsearch.html. The IVT dataset generated and analyzed during this study, as well as analysis software, are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This work was supported by grants from the following: (1) the US Bureau of Reclamation Science & Technology office (PI: Mike Wright, Mid-Pacific Region), (2) the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) and Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) through grant RC-201666, and (3) the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research program under Award Numbers DE-SC0016605 and DE-SC0016438. Additionally, NCAR is sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. We would like to thank the other members of NCAR’s NA-CORDEX team, in particular L. Mearns and S. McGinnis, for their mentoring of the NA-CORDEX dataset and project. We would also like to thank W. Ryan Currier and three anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.Regarding NA-CORDEX: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We also thank the climate modelling groups (listed in http://na-cordex.org/simulations-modeling-group.html) for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the U.S. Department of Defense ESTCP for its support of the NA-CORDEX data archive. Regarding CMIP5: we acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA

    Mimi Hughes, Dustin Swales, James D. Scott, Michael Alexander, Kelly Mahoney & Robert Cifelli

  2. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

    Dustin Swales & James D. Scott

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Rachel R. McCrary & Melissa Bukovsky

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  1. Mimi Hughes
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Hughes, M., Swales, D., Scott, J.D. et al. Changes in extreme integrated water vapor transport on the U.S. west coast in NA-CORDEX, and relationship to mountain and inland precipitation. Clim Dyn 59, 973–995 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06168-6

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