Abstract
In this paper, the response of global monsoon to changes in orbital forcing is investigated using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model with an emphasis on relative roles of precession and obliquity changes. When precession decreases, there are inter-hemispheric asymmetric responses in monsoonal precipitation, featuring a significant increase over most parts of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon regions and a decrease over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoon regions. In contrast, when obliquity increases, global monsoon is enhanced except for the American monsoon. Dynamic effects (caused by changes in winds with humidity unchanged) dominate the monsoonal precipitation response to both precession and obliquity forcing, while thermodynamic effects (caused by changes in humidity with winds unchanged) is related to the northward extension of the North African summer monsoon. During minimum precession, the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation is advanced with respect to the maximum precession. The rainfall increase in the transitional season (April-June in the NH and October-December in the SH) is dominated by the dynamic component. From an energetics perspective, the southward (northward) cross-equatorial energy transport during April-June (October-December) corresponds to a northward (southward) shift of tropical precipitation, which results in a seasonal advance in the migration of tropical precipitation. Nonetheless, there is no significant change in the seasonal cycle in response to obliquity forcing.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ashkenazy Y, Eisenman I, Gildor H, Tziperman E (2010) The effect of Milankovitch variations in insolation on equatorial seasonality. J Clim 23:6133–6142. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3700.1
Berger AL (1978) Long-term variations of daily insolation and Quaternary climatic changes. J Atmos Sci 35:2362–2367. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035%3c2362:Ltvodi%3e2.0.Co;2
Biasutti M, Sobel AH (2009) Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate. Geophys Res Lett 36:L23707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl041303
Bosmans JHC, Drijfhout SS, Tuenter E, Hilgen FJ, Lourens LJ (2015a) Response of the North African summer monsoon to precession and obliquity forcings in the EC-Earth GCM. Clim Dyn 44:279–297. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2260-z
Bosmans JHC, Hilgen FJ, Tuenter E, Lourens LJ (2015b) Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate. Clim Past 11:1335–1346. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1335-2015
Bosmans JHC et al (2018) Response of the Asian summer monsoons to idealized precession and obliquity forcing in a set of GCMs. Quatern Sci Rev 188:121–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.025
Caley T et al (2011) Orbital timing of the Indian, East Asian and African boreal monsoons and the concept of a ‘global monsoon.’ Quatern Sci Rev 30:3705–3715. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.09.015
Caley T, Roche DM, Renssen H (2014) Orbital Asian summer monsoon dynamics revealed using an isotope-enabled global climate model. Nat Commun 5:5371. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6371
Chen G-S, Liu Z, Clemens SC, Prell WL, Liu X (2011) Modeling the time-dependent response of the Asian summer monsoon to obliquity forcing in a coupled GCM: a PHASEMAP sensitivity experiment. Clim Dyn 36:695–710. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0740-3
Cheng H, Sinha A, Wang X, Cruz FW, Edwards RL (2012a) The Global Paleomonsoon as seen through speleothem records from Asia and the Americas. Clim Dyn 39:1045–1062. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1363-7
Cheng H et al (2012b) The climatic cyclicity in semiarid-arid central Asia over the past 500,000 years. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl050202
Chou C, Neelin JD, Chen C-A, Tu J-Y (2009) Evaluating the “rich-get-richer’’’ mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming.” J Clim 22:1982–2005. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2471.1
Clemens SC, Prell WL, Sun Y (2010) Orbital-scale timing and mechanisms driving Late Pleistocene Indo-Asian summer monsoons: Reinterpreting cave speleothemδ18O. Paleoceanography 25:PA4207. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010pa001926
Clement AC, Hall A, Broccoli AJ (2004) The importance of precessional signals in the tropical climate. Clim Dyn 22:327–341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0375-8
deMenocal P, Ortiz J, Guilderson T, Adkins J, Sarnthein M, Baker L, Yarusinsky M (2000) Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period: rapid climate responses to gradual insolation forcing. Quatern Sci Rev 19:347–361. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0277-3791(99)00081-5
Ding Z, Huang G, Wang P, Qu X (2017) Last millennium climate simulated by the ICM climate model (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res 22(6):717–732. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9558.2017.16208
Dwyer JG, Biasutti M, Sobel AH (2014) The effect of greenhouse gas–induced changes in SST on the annual cycle of zonal mean tropical precipitation. J Clim 27(12):4544–4565
Erb MP, Broccoli AJ, Clement AC (2013) The contribution of radiative feedbacks to orbitally driven climate change. J Clim 26:5897–5914. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00419.1
Gupta AK, Anderson DM, Pandey DN, Singhvi AK (2006) Adaptation and human migration, and evidence of agriculture coincident with changes in the Indian summer monsoon during the Holocene. Curr Sci 90(8):1082–1090
Hsu Y-H, Chou C, Wei K-Y (2010) Land-ocean asymmetry of tropical precipitation changes in the mid-Holocene. J Clim 23:4133–4151. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3392.1
Huang P, Wang P, Hu K, Huang G, Zhang Z, Liu Y, Yan B (2014) An introduction to the integrated climate model of the center for monsoon system research and its simulated influence of El Nino on East Asian-Western North Pacific climate. Adv Atmos Sci 31:1136–1146. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3233-1
Joussaume S, Braconnot P (1997) Sensitivity of paleoclimate simulation results to the season definitions. J Geophys Res 102:1943–1956
Joussaume S et al (1999) Monsoon changes for 6000 years ago: results of 18 simulations from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Geophys Res Lett 26:859–862. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999gl900126
Kang SM, Held IM, Frierson DMW, Zhao M (2008) The response of the ITCZ to extratropical thermal forcing: Idealized slab-ocean experiments with a GCM. J Clim 21:3521–3532. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli2146.1
Kershaw AP, van der Kaars S, Moss PT (2003) Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia. Mar Geol 201:81–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0025-3227(03)00210-x
Khon VC, Park W, Latif M, Mokhov II, Schneider B (2010) Response of the hydrological cycle to orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl044377
Kohfeld KE, Harrison SP (2000) How well can we simulate past climates? Evaluating the models using global palaeoenvironmental datasets. Quatern Sci Rev 19:321–346. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0277-3791(99)00068-2
Kutzbach JE, Liu X, Liu Z, Chen G (2008) Simulation of the evolutionary response of global summer monsoons to orbital forcing over the past 280,000 years. Clim Dyn 30:567–579. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0308-z
Lee J-E, Fox-Kemper B, Horvat C, Ming Y (2019) The response of East Asian monsoon to the precessional cycle: a new study using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory model. Geophys Res Lett 46:11388–11396. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082661
Liu TS, Ding ZL, Rutter N (1999) Comparison of Milankovitch periods between continental loess and deep sea records over the last 2.5 Ma. Quatern Sci Rev 18:1205–1212. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0277-3791(98)00110-3
Liu Z, Otto-Bliesner B, Kutzbach J, Li L, Shields C (2003) Coupled climate simulation of the evolution of global monsoons in the Holocene. J Clim 16:2472–2490. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3c2472:Ccsote%3e2.0.Co;2
Liu X, Liu Z, Kutzbach JE, Clemens SC, Prell WL (2006) Hemispheric insolation forcing of the Indian Ocean and Asian monsoon: local versus remote impacts. J Clim 19:6195–6208. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3965.1
Liu B, Zhao G, Huang G, Wang P, Yan B (2017) The dependence on atmospheric resolution of ENSO and related East Asian-western North Pacific summer climate variability in a coupled model. Theoret Appl Climatol 133:1207–1217. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2254-y
Lourens LJ, Wehausen R, Brumsack HJ (2001) Geological constraints on tidal dissipation and dynamical ellipticity of the Earth over the past three million years. Nature 409:1029–1033. https://doi.org/10.1038/35059062
Madec G (2008) NEMO ocean engine. Note du Pole de modélisation. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France, pp 1288–1619
Mantsis DF, Clement AC, Kirtman B, Broccoli AJ, Erb MP (2013) Precessional cycles and their influence on the North Pacific and North Atlantic summer anticyclones. J Clim 26:4596–4611. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00343.1
Mantsis DF, Lintner BR, Broccoli AJ, Erb MP, Clement AC, Park H-S (2014) The response of large-scale circulation to obliquity-induced changes in meridional heating gradients. J Clim 27:5504–5516. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00526.1
Merlis TM, Schneider T, Bordoni S, Eisenman I (2013a) Hadley circulation response to orbital precession Part I: Aquaplanets. J Clim 26:740–753. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00716.1
Merlis TM, Schneider T, Bordoni S, Eisenman I (2013b) Hadley circulation response to orbital precession. Part II: Subtropical continent. J Clim 26:754–771. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00149.1
Mohtadi M, Prange M, Steinke S (2016) Palaeoclimatic insights into forcing and response of monsoon rainfall. Nature 533:191–199. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17450
Morley JJ, Heusser LE (1997) Role of orbital forcing in east Asian monsoon climates during the last 350 kyr: evidence from terrestrial and marine climate proxies from core RC14-99. Paleoceanography 12:483–493. https://doi.org/10.1029/97pa00213
Neelin JD, Held IM (1987) Modeling tropical convergence based on the moist static energy budget. Mon Weather Rev 115:3–12. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115%3c0003:Mtcbot%3e2.0.Co;2
Pokras EM, Mix AC (1987) Earth’s precessional cycle and Quaternary climatic change in tropical Africa. Nature 326:486–487
Pollard D, Reusch DB (2002) A calendar conversion method for monthly mean paleoclimate model output with orbital forcing. J Geophys Res 107:4615. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002126
Prell WL, Kutzbach JE (1987) Monsoon variability over the past 150000 years. J Geophys Res 92:8411–8425. https://doi.org/10.1029/JD092iD07p08411
Roeckner E et al (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. PART1: Model description. Report 349. Max Planck Institude for Meteorology, Hamburg, p 140
Rossignol-Strick M (1983) African monsoons, an immediate climate response to orbital insolation. Nature 304:46–49. https://doi.org/10.1038/304046a0
Schneider T, Bischoff T, Haug GH (2014) Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone. Nature 513:45–53. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13636
Seth A, Rauscher SA, Biasutti M, Giannini A, Camargo SJ, Rojas M (2013) CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions. J Clim 26:7328–7351. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00726.1
Shi Z (2016) Response of Asian summer monsoon duration to orbital forcing under glacial and interglacial conditions: Implication for precipitation variability in geological records. Quatern Sci Rev 139:30–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.03.008
Shi Z, Liu X, Sun Y, An Z, Liu Z, Kutzbach J (2011) Distinct responses of East Asian summer and winter monsoons to astronomical forcing. Clim Past 7:1363–1370. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1363-2011
Shi Z, Liu X, Cheng X (2012) Anti-phased response of northern and southern East Asian summer precipitation to ENSO modulation of orbital forcing. Quatern Sci Rev 40:30–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.02.019
Song F, Leung LR, Lu J, Dong L (2018a) Seasonally dependent responses of subtropical highs and tropical rainfall to anthropogenic warming. Nat Clim Change 8:787–792. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0244-4
Song F, Leung LR, Lu J, Dong L (2018b) Future changes in seasonality of the North Pacific and North Atlantic subtropical highs. Geophys Res Lett 45(21):11959–11968
Song F, Lu J, Leung LR, Liu F (2020) Contrasting phase changes of precipitation annual cycle between land and ocean under global warming. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090327
Sun YB, Clemens SC, An ZS, Yu ZW (2006) Astronomical timescale and palaeoclimatic implication of stacked 3.6-Myr monsoon records from the Chinese Loess Plateau. Quatern Sci Rev 25:33–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.07.005
Tuenter E, Weber SL, Hilgen FJ, Lourens LJ (2003) The response of the African summer monsoon to remote and local forcing due to precession and obliquity. Global Planet Change 36:219–235
Valcke S (2006) OASIS3 user guide. PRISM Tech Rep 3:64
Wang B, Ding Q (2008) Global monsoon: dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics. Dyn Atmos Oceans 44:165–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.05.002
Wang Y et al (2008) Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years. Nature 451:1090–1093. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06692
Wang B, Liu J, Kim H-J, Webster PJ, Yim S-Y (2012) Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979–2008). Clim Dyn 39:1123–1135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1266-z
Wang PX, Wang B, Cheng H, Fasullo J, Guo ZT, Kiefer T, Liu ZY (2014) The global monsoon across timescales: coherent variability of regional monsoons. Clim Past 10:2007–2052. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2007-2014
Weber SL, Tuenter E (2011) The impact of varying ice sheets and greenhouse gases on the intensity and timing of boreal summer monsoons. Quatern Sci Rev 30:469–479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.12.009
Wu C-H, Lee S-Y, Chiang JCH, Hsu H-H (2016) The influence of obliquity in the early Holocene Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 43:4524–4530. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068481
Wyrwoll K-H, Liu Z, Chen G, Kutzbach JE, Liu X (2007) Sensitivity of the Australian summer monsoon to tilt and precession forcing. Quatern Sci Rev 26:3043–3057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.06.026
Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558
Acknowledgements
We appreciate the comments of two anonymous reviewers that help the improvement of this study. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41831175, 91937302 and 41721004), STEP(2019QZKK0102), Key Deployment Project of Centre for Ocean Mega-Research of Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (COMS2019Q03), the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20060501), and the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0605904).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ding, Z., Huang, G., Liu, F. et al. Responses of global monsoon and seasonal cycle of precipitation to precession and obliquity forcing. Clim Dyn 56, 3733–3747 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05663-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05663-6