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A methodology for the comparison of blocking climatologies across indices, models and climate scenarios

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Abstract

There is urgent need for a consistent blocking identification method that can be used and compared across reanalyses, models and climate scenarios. We present such a method and diagnose daily blocking frequency in 43 years (1958–2000) of ERA-40 Reanalysis for indices defined on both the commonly used geopotential height and potential temperature fields as well as a zonal wind index. Applications of various blocking indices to the same data highlights the importance of a consistent methodology for comparison and a method that identifies blocks along a path that varies with the latitude of the storm track. Since the method accommodates blocking detection using 500 mb zonal-wind which is readily available in climate model output, we diagnose blocking in 14 CMIP3 models under two different greenhouse gas scenarios. Blocking duration remains nearly constant among the scenarios, but a robust reduction in blocking frequency with global warming is demonstrated.

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Acknowledgments

We are indebted to ECMWF for providing the ERA-40. This work was supported by the STC program of the National Science Foundation via the National Center for Earth-surface Dynamics under the agreement EAR- 0120914 and by the STC International Research Experience Program of the NSF through the Nanobiotechnology Center under Agreement ECS-9876771. This work was also supported by the Climate Dynamics Program of the National Science Foundation under grant ATM 0409075. We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Box 351640, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

    Elizabeth A. Barnes

  2. Met Office, Exeter, UK

    Julia Slingo

  3. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK

    Tim Woollings

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  1. Elizabeth A. Barnes
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  2. Julia Slingo
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  3. Tim Woollings
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Correspondence to Elizabeth A. Barnes.

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Barnes, E.A., Slingo, J. & Woollings, T. A methodology for the comparison of blocking climatologies across indices, models and climate scenarios. Clim Dyn 38, 2467–2481 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1243-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1243-6

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