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Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical–dynamical climate model

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Abstract

In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO2 concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming.

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Acknowledgments

Thanks are due to the reviewers for their useful suggestions. Thanks are also due to Mr. Felipe Sena for his computational help.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São Jose dos Campos, CP 515, Sãu Paulo, SP, 12245-970, Brazil

    Sergio H. Franchito & V. Brahmananda Rao

  2. Divisão de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São Jose dos Campos, CP 515, Sãu Paulo, SP, 12245-970, Brazil

    E. C. Moraes

Authors
  1. Sergio H. Franchito
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  2. V. Brahmananda Rao
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  3. E. C. Moraes
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Correspondence to Sergio H. Franchito.

Appendix

Appendix

Meaning of the symbols of the surface and atmospheric diabatic fluxes parameterization used in the SDM.

a4 :

Constant equal to 0.1 × 10−5 m Pa−1 (HN) and 0.17 × 10−5 m Pa−1 (HS)

a44 :

Constant equal to 0.2 × l0−8 m s−1 (HS) and 0 (HN)

b, c, e, f:

Empirical constant independent of the latitude

g:

The acceleration of gravity

hb :

The cloud base height

ht :

The height of the top of the height cover

H:

The height of the atmosphere

k:

Factor proportional to the conductive capacity of surface medium

L:

Latent heat of vaporization

N:

Cloudiness amount at a latitude belt

Nm :

Hemispheric average of the cloudiness amount

ra :

Reflexivity of the atmosphere

rs :

Surface albedo

R o :

Solar radiation incident at the top of the atmosphere

Tb :

The radiation temperature at the cloud cover base

TD :

Subsurface temperature

Ts :

Air surface temperature

Tt :

The radiation temperature at the top of cloud cover

T2 :

Temperature at 500 hPa

ℱ(z1,z2):

The spectrally averaged transmission function between the levels z1 and z2

ℒ(z)↓:

The downward longwave flux of the clear atmosphere at the height z

ℒ(z)↑:

The upward longwave flux of the clear atmosphere at the level z

σB :

Stefan–Boltzman constant

τ:

Transmissivity of the atmosphere

w:

Water availability at the surface

ω:

Vertical velocity at 500 hPa

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Franchito, S.H., Brahmananda Rao, V. & Moraes, E.C. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical–dynamical climate model. Clim Dyn 37, 2021–2034 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0952-6

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