Abstract
In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023, the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and continents. The consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal winter. In this report, as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2–3 months, which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection, thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North America. Despite some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability, the global mean surface temperature (GMST) in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming trend. Specifically, the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter, and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since 1991. Moreover, the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated medium-term numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.
摘要
在2023年的北半球夏秋季, 全球遭遇了一次极端的高温时期, 北半球的海洋和陆地普遍出现了异常持续升温. 连续打破历史纪录的全球平均地表温度(GMST)引发了人们对即将来临的2023/24年冬季全球气温趋势的广泛关注. 中科院大气物理研究所短期气候预测团队, 利用多套自主研发的气候预测系统, 对2023/24年冬季气候异常进行了多模式集合预测研究. 研究结果显示, 在接下来的2–3个月内, 一个中等到强的东太平洋型厄尔尼诺现象即将进入成熟阶段. 这一事件将在西北太平洋地区引发异常的反气旋活动, 并激发“太平洋-北美型”大气遥相关波列, 进而影响东亚和北美的冬季气候. 虽然不可预测的大气内部噪音对预测结果带来了一定的不确定性, 但由于厄尔尼诺事件与全球温度长期变暖趋势的共同作用, 2023/24年冬季GMST有极大可能创下历史新高. 具体来说, 欧亚大陆中低纬度地区有望迎来一个异常温暖的冬季, 而中国的地表气温异常可能将超过气候平均态2.4个标准差以上, 有望创下自1991年以来的最高冬季温度纪录.
Article PDF
References
Bao, Q., and J. Li, 2020: Progress in climate modeling of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. National Science Review, 7, 486–487, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa006.
Borchert, L. F., V. Koul, M. B. Menary, D. J. Befort, D. Swingedouw, G. Sgubin, and J. Mignot, 2021: Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 104017. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5.
Chen, W., 2002: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the cycle of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 26, 595–610, https://doi.org/10.3878/jissn.1006-9895.2002.05.02.
Chen, W., H.-F. Graf, and R. H. Huang, 2000: The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 17, 48–60, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-000-0042-5.
Cheng, L. J., K. E. Trenberth, J. T. Fasullo, M. Mayer, M. Balmaseda, and J. Zhu., 2019: Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO. J. Climate, 32, 3529–3556, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0607.1.
Dai, H. X., K. Fan, and J. P. Liu, 2019: Month-to-Month variability of winter temperature over Northeast China linked to sea ice over the Davis Strait-Baffin bay and the Barents-Kara sea. J. Climate, 32, 6365–6384, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0804.1.
Ding, Y. H., 1994: The winter monsoon in East Asia. Monsoons Over China, Y. H. Ding, Ed., Springer, 91–173, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8302-2_2.
Doi, T., S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata, 2020: Wintertime impacts of the 2019 super IOD on East Asia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089456 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl089456.
Eade, R., D. Smith, A. Scaife, E. Wallace, N. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, and N. Robinson, 2014: Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5620–5628, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061146.
Geng, X., W. J. Zhang, M. F. Stuecker, and F.-F. Jin, 2017: Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and northern Europe associated with super El Niño events. Scientific Reports, 7, 3770. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03977-2.
Horel, J. D., and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 813–829, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0813:Psapaw>2.0.Co;2.
Hsu, C.-W., and J. J. Yin, 2019: How likely is an El Niño to break the global mean surface temperature record during the 21st century. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 094017. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3b82.
Hu, S., T. J. Zhou, and B. Wu, 2020: Improved ENSO prediction skill resulting from reduced climate drift in IAP-DecPreS: A comparison of full-field and anomaly initializations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12, e2019MS001759. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001759.
Hu, S., T. J. Zhou, B. Wu, and X. L. Chen, 2023: Seasonal prediction of the record-breaking Northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in July 2021. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 40, 410–427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2151-x.
Jia, X. J., S. Wang, H. Lin, and Q. Bao, 2015: A connection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the winter climate in the Asian-Pacific region. J. Geophys. Res., 120, 430–448, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022324.
Kim, J.-W., S.-I. An, S.-Y. Jun, H.-J. Park, and S.-W. Yeh, 2017: ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone. Climate Dyn., 49, 1157–1179, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3371-5.
Li, J. X., and Coauthors, 2021: Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 36, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0189.1.
Li, K.-X., F. Zheng, D.-Y. Luo, C. Sun, and J. Zhu, 2022: Key regions in the modulation of seasonal GMST variability by analyzing the two hottest years: 2016 vs. 2020. Environmental Research Letters, 17, 094034. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC8DAB.
Li, K. X., F. Zheng, L. J. Cheng, T. Y. Zhang, and J. Zhu, 2023: Record-breaking global temperature and crises with strong El Niño in 2023–2024. The Innovation Geoscience, 1, 100030. https://doi.org/10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2023.100030.
Luo, D. H., X. D. Chen, J. Overland, I. Simmonds, Y. T. Wu, and P. F. Zhang, 2019: Weakened potential vorticity barrier linked to recent winter Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude cold extremes. J. Climate, 32, 4235–4261, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-18-0449.1.
Lüthi, S., and Coauthors, 2023: Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality. Nature Communications, 14, 4894. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x.
Ma, J. H., and H. J. Wang, 2014: Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model. Science China Earth Sciences, 57, 2417–2427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-014-4875-7.
Morice, C. P., and Coauthors, 2021: An updated assessment of near-surface temperature change from 1850: The HadCRUT5 data set. J. Geophys. Res., 126, e2019JD032361. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361.
Mu, M. Q., and C. Y. Li, 1999: ENSO signals in the interannual variability of East-Asian winter monsoon. Part I: Observed data analyses. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 23, 276–285, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1999.03.03.
Rohde, R. A., and Z. Hausfather, 2020: The berkeley earth land/ocean temperature record. Earth System Science Data, 12, 3469–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020.
Ruffault, J., and Coauthors, 2020: Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin. Scientific Reports, 10, 13790. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70069-z.
Scaife, A. A., and D. Smith, 2018: A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1, 28. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4.
Singh, B. K., M. Delgado-Baquerizo, E. Egidi, E. Guirado, J. E. Leach, H. W. Liu, and P. Trivedi, 2023: Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward. Nature Reviews Microbiology, 21, 640–656, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-023-00900-7.
Su, J. Z., R. H. Zhang, and H. J. Wang, 2017: Consecutive record-breaking high temperatures marked the handover from hiatus to accelerated warming. Scientific Reports, 7, 43735. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep43735.
Tao, S. Y., and Q. Y. Zhang, 1998: Response of the Asian winter and summer monsoon to ENSO events. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 22, 399–407, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1998.04.02.
Vose, R. S., and Coauthors, 2021: Implementing full spatial coverage in NOAA’s global temperature analysis. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090873. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090873.
Walther, G.-R., 2010: Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2019–2024, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0021.
Wang, B., R. G. Wu, and X. Fu, 2000: Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate. J. Climate, 13, 1517–1536, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:peathd>2.0.co;2.
Wang, L., and M.-M. Lu, 2017: The East Asian winter monsoon. The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast. 3rd ed., C.-P. Chang et al., Eds., World Scientific, 51–61, https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813200913_0005.
Wang, L., W. Chen, W. Zhou, and R. H. Huang, 2009: Interannual variations of East Asian Trough axis at 500 hPa and its association with the East Asian Winter Monsoon pathway. J. Climate, 22, 600–614, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2295.1.
Wang, L., A. Y. Deng, and R. H. Huang, 2019: Wintertime internal climate variability over Eurasia in the CESM large ensemble. Climate Dyn., 52, 6735–6748, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4542-3.
Wu, B., T. J. Zhou, and F. Zheng, 2018: EnOI-IAU initialization scheme designed for decadal climate prediction system IAP-DecPreS. J. Geophys. Res., 10, 342–356, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ms001132.
Wu, R. G., 2016: Coupled intraseasonal variations in the East Asian winter monsoon and the South China Sea-Western North Pacific SST in boreal winter. Climate Dyn., 47, 2039–2057, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2949-7.
Yao, Y., and Coauthors, 2023: Extreme cold events in North America and Eurasia in November-December 2022: A potential vorticity gradient perspective. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 40, 953–962, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2384-3.
Yin, J. J., J. Overpeck, C. Peyser, and R. Stouffer, 2018: Big jump of record warm global mean surface temperature in 2014–2016 related to unusually large oceanic heat releases. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1069–1078, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076500.
Yu, S., and J. Q. Sun, 2018: Revisiting the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 4846–4859, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5702.
Zhang, R. H., A. Sumi, and M. Kimoto, 1996: Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon: A diagnostic study of the ‘86/87 and ‘91/92 events. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 74, 49–62, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.74.1_49.
Zhang, X. J., F. Zheng, J. Zhu, and X. R. Chen, 2022: Observed frequent occurrences of marine heatwaves in most ocean regions during the last two decades. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1579–1587, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1291-3.
Zheng, F., and Coauthors, 2022a: The predictability of ocean environments that contributed to the 2020/21 extreme cold events in China: 2020/21 La Niña and 2020 Arctic sea ice loss. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 658–672, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1130-y.
Zheng, F., and Coauthors, 2022b: The 2020/21 extremely cold winter in China influenced by the synergistic effect of La Niña and warm arctic. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 546–552, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1033-y.
Zheng, F., H. L. Ren, R. P. Lin, and J. Zhu, 2023a: Realistic ocean initial condition for stimulating the successful prediction of extreme cold events in the 2020/2021 winter. Climate Dyn., 61, 33–46, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06557-x.
Zheng, F., and Coauthors, 2023b: Can Eurasia experience a cold winter under a third-year La Niña in 2022/23. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 40, 541–548, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2331-8.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS (Grant No. ZDBS-LY-DQC010), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42175045).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zheng, F., Hu, S., Ma, J. et al. Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 581–586 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3330-0
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3330-0