Seamless Prediction in China: A Review

Abstract

Seamless prediction is a weather–climate integrated prediction covering multiple time scales that include days, weeks, months, seasons, years, and decades. Seamless prediction can provide different industries with information such as weather conditions and climate variations from the next few days to years, which have important impacts on economic and social development and important reference value for short-, medium- and long-term decision-making and planning of the country. Therefore, seamless prediction has received widespread attention from the international scientific community recently. As Chinese scientists have also carried out relevant research, this paper reviews the research in China on developments and applications of seamless prediction methods and prediction systems in recent years. Among them, the main progress of seamless prediction methods studies is reviewed from four aspects: short- and medium-range weather forecasting, subseasonal-to-seasonal, seasonal-to-interannual, and decadal climate prediction. In terms of development and application of seamless prediction systems, the main achievements made by meteorological operational departments, scientific institutes, and universities in China in recent years are reviewed. Finally, some of the issues in seamless prediction that need further study are discussed.

摘要

天气气候无缝隙一体化预报可以为不同行业提供未来数日至数年的天气状况和气候异常等信息, 对经济和社会发展具有重要影响, 对国家的中短期决策和长期规划具有重要参考价值. 因此, 无缝隙预报近年来受到国际科学界的广泛关注, 中国学者也广泛参与其中并做出了许多重要贡献. 文中回顾了近年来中国学者在无缝隙预报方法与预报系统发展及应用方面的研究进展. 其中, 在无缝隙预报方法方面, 系统回顾了近年来在中短期天气预报、 次季节-季节、 季节-年际、 年代际气候预测四个维度所取得的主要研究进展. 在无缝隙预报系统发展及应用方面, 回顾了近年来中国气象业务部门、 科研院所和高校所发展的一系列天气和气候预测系统以及天气气候一体化预报系统. 最后, 本文还提供了中国无缝隙预报的一些未来的可能研究方向并进行了相关讨论.