Abstract
Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication. Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms, a good and applicable method is still lacking. This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms. In this study, phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October, 2010. The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations, and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap. In July, the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u., arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to −3.99 a.u. in September. A significant correlation (R =0.998, P <0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model, we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms. Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature, dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline. Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition, the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure. This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abrams P A. 1980. Some comments on measuring niche overlap. Ecology, 61: 44–49.
Chen Y, Qin B, Gao X. 2001. Prediction of blue-green algae bloom using stepwise multiple regression between algae and related environmental factors in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu. J. Lake Sci., 13: 63–71.
Chen Y, Yin F, Lu G. 2007. A Catastrophe model for water bloom prediction: a case study of China’s Chaohu Lake. Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess., 13(4): 914–921.
Colwell R K, Futuyma D J. 1971. On the measurement of niche breadth and overlap. Ecology, 52: 567–576.
Dolédec S, Chessel D, Gimaret-Carpentier C. 2000. Niche separation in community analysis: a new method. Ecology, 81: 2 914–2 927.
Goleski J A, Koch F, Marcoval M A, Wall C C, Jochem F J, Peterson B J, Gobler C J. 2010. The role of zooplankton grazing and nutrient loading in the occurrence of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in Florida Bay, USA. Estuar. Coast., 33: 1 202–1 215.
Jiang Y, Ji B, Wong R N S, Wong M H. 2008. Statistical study on the effects of environmental factors on the growth and microcystins production of bloom-forming cyanobacterium — Microcystis aeruginosa. Harmful Algae, 7: 127–136.
Jin X C, Wang S R, Pang Y, Wu F C. 2006. Phosphorus fractions and the effect of pH on the phosphorus release of the sediments from different trophic areas in Taihu Lake, China. Environ. Pollut., 139: 288–295.
Lane J Q, Raimondi P T, Kudela R M. 2009. Development of a logistic regression model for the prediction of toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in Monterey Bay, California. Mar. Eco. Prog. Ser., 383: 37–51.
Leibold M A. 1995. The niche concept revisited: mechanistic models and community context. Ecology, 76: 1 371–1 382.
Levins R. 1968. Evolution in Changing Environments: Some Theoretical Explorations. Princeton University Press, USA. p.132.
Li H, Hou G, Song L, Liu Y. 2007. Modelling algal blooms in lake Dianchi, China using neural networks. Fresen. Environ. Bullet., 16: 798–803.
Ludwig J A, Reynolds J F. 1988. Statistical Ecology: A Primer on Methods And Computing. John Wiley & Sons, New York. p.341.
Paerl H W, Fulton R S 3rd, Moisander P H, Dyble J. 2001. Harmful freshwater algal blooms, with an emphasis on cyanobacteria. Sci. World, 1: 76–113.
Parsons T R, Strickland J D H. 1963. Discussion of spectrophotometric determination of marine plant pigment, with revised equations for ascertaining chlorophylls and carotenoids. J. Mar. Res., 21: 155–163.
Petraitis P S. 1979. Likelihood measures of niche breadth and overlap. Ecology, 60: 703–710.
Pianka E R. 1976. Competition and niche theory. In: May R M ed. Theoretical Ecology: Principles And Applications. Blackwell Scientific Publications. p.114–141.
Shi H W, Jiang M X, Hu L L. 2007. Niche characteristics of Berchemiella wilsoni var. pubipetiolata, an endangered species in China. J. Wuhan Bot. Res., 25: 163–168.
Thomas R H, Walsby A E. 1985. Buoyancy regulation in a strain of Microcystis. J. Gen. Microbiol., 131: 799–809.
Thompson K, Gaston K J, Band S R. 1999. Range size, dispersal and niche breadth in the herbaceous flora of central England. J. Ecol., 87: 150–155.
Van Valen L. 1965. Morphological variation and the width of the ecological niche. Am. Nat., 100: 377–389.
Wang M, Xu Q, Che Y, Yang K. 2011a. Research on the meteorological and hydrological factors of cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Dianshan. J. East China Norm. Univ. ( Nat. Sci.), (1): 21–31.
Wang Z, Huang K, Zhou P, Guo H C. 2010a. A hybrid neural network model for cyanobacteria bloom in Dianchi Lake. Procedia Environ. Sci., 2: 67–75.
Wang Y, Wang Z, Wu W, Hu M, Wang Z, Xu A, Li G, Liu Y. 2010b. Seasonal regime shift of an alternative-state Lake Xingyun, China. Fresen. Environ. Bullet., 19: 1 474–1 485.
Wang Z C, Li D H, Li G W, Liu Y D. 2010c. Mechanism of photosynthetic response in Microcystis aeruginosa PCC7806 to low inorganic phosphorus. Harmful Algae, 9: 613–619.
Wang Z C, Zuo M, Wang Y C, Liu Y D, Li D H. 2011b. Dynamics of chlorophyll fluorescence and ecomorphological properties of Microcystis bloom in Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu, China. Frese n. Environ. Bullet., 20: 2 295–2 305.
Wang Z C, Li G W, Li G B, Li D H. 2012. The decline process and major pathways of Microcystis bloom in Lake Taihu, China. Chin. J. Oceanol. Limnol., 30(1): 37–46.
Xing W, Huang W M, Liu Y D, Li D H, Shen Y W, Li G B. 2007. Environmental mechanism of change in cyanobacterial species composition in the northeastern part of Lake Dianchi (China). Fresen. Environ. Bullet., 17: 82–90.
Xu J, Zhang M, Xie P. 2007. Stable carbon isotope variations in surface bloom scum and subsurface seston among shallow eutrophic lakes. Harmful Algae, 6: 679–685.
Yang D T, Pan D L, Zhang X Y, Zhang X F, He X Q, Li SJ. 2006. Retrieval of chlorophyll a and suspended solid concentration by hyperspectral remote sensing in Taihu Lake, China. Chin. J. Oceanol. Limnol., 24: 428–434.
Zhang J T. 2004. Quantitative Eclogy. Science Press, Beijing. p.120–240.
Zhang M, Xu J, Xie P. 2008. Nitrogen dynamics in large shallow eutrophic Chaohu Lake, China. Environ. Geol., 55: 1–8.
Zevenboom W, Mur L R. 1984. Growth and photosynthetic response of the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa in relation to photoperiodicity and irradiance. Arch. Microbiol., 139: 232–239.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2008CB418002), the National Major Programs of Water Body Pollution Control and Remediation (Nos. 2009ZX07106-001, 2009ZX07104-005), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 30830025)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, Z., Li, Z. & Li, D. A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China. Chin. J. Ocean. Limnol. 30, 587–594 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-012-1254-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-012-1254-0