Abstract
In this paper, the full information about the existence and nonexistence of a time-periodic traveling wave solution of a reaction–diffusion Zika epidemic model with seasonality, which is non-monotonic, is investigated. More precisely, if the basic reproduction number, denoted by \(R_{0}\), is larger than one, there exists a minimal wave speed \(c^* > 0\) satisfying for each \(c > c^*\), the system admits a nontrivial time-periodic traveling wave solution with wave speed c, and for \(c<c^*\), there exist no nontrivial time-periodic traveling waves such that if \(R_0 \leqslant 1\), the system admits no nontrivial time-periodic traveling waves.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
The authors declare that the data are available on request from the authors.
References
Ambrosio, B., Ducrot, A., Ruan, S.: Generalized traveling waves for time-dependent reaction–diffusion systems. Math. Ann. 381, 1–27 (2021)
Bacaëra, N., Gomes, M.: On the final size of epidemics with seasonality. J. Math. Biol. 71, 1954–1966 (2009)
Barnett, N.S., Dragomir, S.S.: Some Landau type inequalities for functions whose derivatives are of locally bounded variation. Tamkang J. Math. 37, 301–308 (2006)
Buonomo, B., Chitnis, N., d’Onofrio, A.: Seasonality in epidemic models: a literature review. Ricerche mat. 67, 7–25 (2018)
CDC. Ceters for Disease Control and Prevention: Zika virus. Accessed, July 24 (2019)
Chen, J., Beier, J., Cantrell, R., Robert, S., Cosner, C., Fuller, D., Guan, Y., Zhang, G., Ruan, S.: Modeling the importation and local transmission of vector-borne diseases in Florida: the case of Zika outbreak in 2016. J. Theor. Biol. 455, 342–356 (2018)
Deng, D., Wang, J., Zhang, L.: Critical periodic traveling waves for a Kermack–McKendrick epidemic model with diffusion and seasonality. J. Differ. Equ. 322, 365–395 (2022)
Ding, C., Tao, N., Zhu, Y.: A mathematical model of Zika virus and its optimal control. In: 35th Chinese, pp. 2642–2645. IEEE (2016)
Ducrot, A., Magal, P., Ruan, S.: Travelling wave solutions in multigroup age-structured epidemic models. Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal. 195, 311–331 (2010)
Ducrot, A., Magal, P.: Travelling wave solutions for an infection-age structured model with external supplies. Nonlinearity 24, 2891–2911 (2011)
Eikenberry, S.E., Gumel, A.B.: Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review. J. Math. Biol. 77, 857–933 (2018)
Fang, J., Yu, X., Zhao, X.-Q.: Traveling waves and spreading speeds for time-space periodic monotone systems. J. Funct. Anal. 272, 4222–4262 (2017)
Foy, B., Kobylinski, K., Chilson Foy, J., Blitvich, B., da Rosa, A.T., Haddow, A., Lanciotti, R., Tesh, R.: Probable non-vector-borne transmission of Zika virus. Emerging Infec. Dis. 17, 1–7 (2011)
Grassly, N.C., Fraser, C.: Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. Proc. R. Soc. B 273, 2541–2550 (2006)
Gao, Daozhou, Lou, Yijun, He, Daihai, Porco, Travis C., Kuang, Yang, Chowell, Gerardo, Ruan, Shigui: Prevention and control of Zika as a mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted disease: a mathematical modeling analysis. Sci. Rep. 6, 1–10 (2016)
Hethcote, H.: The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Rev. 42, 599–653 (2000)
Hethcote, H., Levin, S.: Periodicity in Epidemiological Models. In: Levin, S.A., Hallam, T.G., Gross, L. (eds.) Applied Mathematical Ecology, Biomathematics, vol. 18. Springer, Berlin (1989)
Huang, M., Wu, S.-L., Zhao, X.-Q.: The principal eigenvalue for partially degenerate and periodic reaction–diffusion systems with time delay. J. Differ. Equ. 371, 396–449 (2023)
Khan, M.A., Shan, S.W., Ullah, S., G\(\acute{o}\)mez-Aguilar, J.F.: A dynamical model of asymptomatic carrier Zika virus with optimal control strategies. Nonlinear Anal. Real World Appl. 50, 140–177 (2019)
Landau, E.: Einige Ungleichungen fr zweimal differentzierban funktionen. Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. 13, 43–49 (1913)
Li, J., Zou, X.: Modeling spatial spread of infections diseases with a fixed latent period in a spatially continous domain. Bull. Math. Biol. 71, 2048–2079 (2009)
Liang, X., Yi, Y., Zhao, X.-Q.: Spreading speeds and traveling waves for periodic evolution systems. J. Differ. Equ. 231, 57–77 (2006)
Liang, X., Zhao, X.-Q.: Asymptotic speeds of spread and traveling waves for monotone semiflows with applications. Commun. Pure Appl. Math. 60, 1–40 (2007)
Lunardi, A.: Analytic Semigroups and Optimal Regularity in Parabolic Problem. Birkhäuser, Boston (1995)
Macnamara, F.: Zika virus: a report on three cases of human infection during an epidemic of jaundice in Nigeria. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 48, 139–145 (1954)
Miyaoka, T., Lenhart, S., Meyer, J.: Optimal control of vaccination in a vector-borne reaction–diffusion model applied to Zika virus. J. Math. Biol. 79, 1077–1104 (2019)
Murray, J.D.: Mathematical Biology. Springer, Berlin (1989)
Nishiura, H., Kinoshita, R., Mizumoto, K., Yasuda, Y., Nah, K.: Transmission potential of Zika virus infection in the south pacific. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 45, 95–97 (2016)
Rass, L., Radcliffe, J.: Spatial Deterministic Epidemics, Mathematical Surveys and Monographs 102. American Mathematical Society, Providence (2003)
Ruan, S.: Spatial-Temporal Dynamics in Nonlocal Epidemiological Models, pp. 99–122. Springer, Berlin (2007)
Ruan, S., Wu, J.: Modeling spatial spread of communicable diseases involving animal hosts. In: Spatial Ecology, pp. 293–316. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (2009)
Simpson, D.: Zika virus infection in man. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hygiene 58, 335–337 (1964)
Soper, H.E.: The interpretation of periodicity in disease prevalence. J. R. Stat. Soc. 92, 34–73 (1929)
Suparit, P., Wiratsudakul, A., Modchang, C.: A mathematical model for Zika virus transmission dynamics with a time-dependent mosquito biting rate. Theor. Biol. Med. Model. 15, 1–11 (2018)
Wang, L., Wu, P.: Threshold dynamics of a Zika model with environmental and sexual transmissions and spatial heterogeneity. Z. Angew. Math. Phys. 73, 171 (2022)
Wang, S.-M., Feng, Z., Wang, Z.-C., Zhang, L.: Periodic traveling wave of a time periodic and diffusive epidemic model with nonlocal delayed transmission. Nonlinear Anal. Real World Appl. 55, 103117 (2020)
Wang, W., Zhao, X.-Q.: Threshold dynamics for compartmental epidemic models in periodic environments. J. Dyn. Differ. Equ. 20, 699–717 (2008)
Wang, Z.-C., Wu, J.: Traveling waves of a diffusive Kermack–McKendrick epidemic model with nonlocal delayed transmission. Proc. R. Soc. A 466, 237–261 (2010)
Wang, Z.-C., Wu, J., Liu, R.: Traveling waves of the spread of avian influenza. Proc. Am. Math. Soc. 140, 3931–3946 (2012)
Wang, Z.-C., Zhang, L., Zhao, X.-Q.: Time periodic traveling waves for a periodic and diffusive SIR epidemic model. J. Dyn. Differ. Equ. 30, 379–403 (2018)
Weinberger, H.F.: Long-time behavior of a class of biological model. SIAM J. Math. Anal. 13, 353–396 (1982)
World Health Organization (WHO).: WHO statement on the first meeting of the International Health Regulations: Emergency Committee on Zika virus and observed increase in neurological disorders and neonatal malformations, February 1, 2016 (2005). http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2016/1st-emergency-committee-zika/en/. Accessed 26 Feb 2016
Wu, S.-L., Zhao, H., Zhang, X., Hsu, C.-H.: Spatial dynamics for a time-periodic epidemic model in discrete media. J. Differ. Equ. 374, 699–736 (2023)
Wu, W., Teng, Z.: Periodic wave propagation in a diffusive SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and periodic environment. J. Math. Phys. 63, 12 (2022)
Xu, D., Zhao, X.-Q.: Dynamics in a periodic competitive model with stage structure. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 311, 417–438 (2005)
Yang, L., Li, Y.: Periodic traveling waves in a time periodic SEIR model with nonlocal dispersal and delay. Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B 28(9), 5087–5104 (2023)
Yang, X., Lin, G.: Spreading speeds and traveling waves for a time periodic DS-I-A epidemic model. Nonlinear Anal. Real World Appl. 66, 1–27 (2022)
Zhang, L., Wang, Z.-C., Zhao, X.-Q.: Time periodic traveling wave solutions for a Kermack–McKendrick epidemic model with diffusion and seasonality. J. Evol. Equ. 20, 1029–1059 (2020)
Zhang, R., Zhao, H.: Traveling wave solutions for Zika transmission model with nonlocal diffusion. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 513, 1–29 (2022)
Zhao, X.-Q.: Basic reproduction ratios for periodic compartmental models with time delay. J. Dyn. Differ. Equ. 29, 67–82 (2017)
Zhao, L., Wang, Z.-C., Ruan, S.: Traveling wave solutions in a two-group SIR epidemic model with constant recruitment. J. Math. Biol. 77, 1871–1915 (2018)
Zhao, L., Wang, Z.-C., Ruan, S.: Traveling wave solutions of a two-group epidemic model with latent period. Nonlinearity 30, 1287–1325 (2017)
Zhao, L., Wang, Z.-C., Zhang, L.: Propagation dynamics for a time-periodic reaction–diffusion SI epidemic model with periodic recruitment. Z. Angew. Math. Phys. 72, 1–20 (2021)
Zhao, L.: Spreading speed and travelling wave solutions of a reaction–diffusion Zika model with constant recruitment. Nonlinear Anal. Real World Appl. 74, 103942 (2023)
Funding
Researcher was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (12161052) and Natural Science Foundation of Gansu, China (21JR7RA240).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
This paper was written by myself.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Ethical statement
This paper does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors. I also certify that this paper is original and has not been published and will not be submitted elsewhere for publication.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhao, L. Time-periodic traveling wave solutions of a reaction–diffusion Zika epidemic model with seasonality. Z. Angew. Math. Phys. 75, 32 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00033-023-02173-9
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00033-023-02173-9
Keywords
- Nontrivial time-periodic traveling wave solutions
- Zika epidemic model
- A reaction–diffusion system
- Seasonality