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Integration of Local Observations into the One Dimensional Fog Model PAFOG

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Abstract

The numerical prediction of fog requires a very high vertical resolution of the atmosphere. Owing to a prohibitive computational effort of high resolution three dimensional models, operational fog forecast is usually done by means of one dimensional fog models. An important condition for a successful fog forecast with one dimensional models consists of the proper integration of observational data into the numerical simulations. The goal of the present study is to introduce new methods for the consideration of these data in the one dimensional radiation fog model PAFOG. First, it will be shown how PAFOG may be initialized with observed visibilities. Second, a nudging scheme will be presented for the inclusion of measured temperature and humidity profiles in the PAFOG simulations. The new features of PAFOG have been tested by comparing the model results with observations of the German Meteorological Service. A case study will be presented that reveals the importance of including local observations in the model calculations. Numerical results obtained with the modified PAFOG model show a distinct improvement of fog forecasts regarding the times of fog formation, dissipation as well as the vertical extent of the investigated fog events. However, model results also reveal that a further improvement of PAFOG might be possible if several empirical model parameters are optimized. This tuning can only be realized by comprehensive comparisons of model simulations with corresponding fog observations.

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Acknowledgments

The iPort project is funded by the German Ministry for Economy and Technology. The authors wish to thank Michael Rohn, Wolfgang Raatz, Lucas Wenke, Björn-Rüdiger Beckmann and Peer Röhner from DWD for their cooperation in the iPort-VIS project. Wolfgang Adam from the Lindenberg observatory of the DWD is gratefully acknowledged for providing the data set of the investigated case study.

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  1. Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121, Bonn, Germany

    Christina Thoma, Werner Schneider, Matthieu Masbou & Andreas Bott

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  1. Christina Thoma
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  2. Werner Schneider
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  3. Matthieu Masbou
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  4. Andreas Bott
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Correspondence to Christina Thoma.

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Thoma, C., Schneider, W., Masbou, M. et al. Integration of Local Observations into the One Dimensional Fog Model PAFOG. Pure Appl. Geophys. 169, 881–893 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0357-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0357-4

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