Abstract
A model is developed to estimate the duration for which malaria antibody levels in the blood remain high in a closed population. This estimate can be used to calculate the transmission rate within a region, in conjunction with the serological information contained in the population. The model is used on data obtained from a study of malaria in the Philippines and shows excellent agreement. It is subsequently utilised for predictions and seems to be an appropriate vehicle for this purpose.
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Gatton, M., Hogarth, W., Saul, A. et al. A model for predicting the transmission rate of malaria from serological data. J. Math. Biol. 34, 878–888 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01834824
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01834824