Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The transient response of vegetation to climate change: A potential source of CO2 to the atmosphere

  • Published:
Water, Air, and Soil Pollution Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Global climate change as currently simulated could result in the broad-scale redistribution of vegetation across the planet. Vegetation change could occur through drought-induced dieback and fire. The direct combustion of vegetation and the decay of dead biomass could result in a release of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere over a 50- to 150-year time frame. A simple model that tracks dieback and regrowth of extra-tropical forests is used to estimate the possible magnitude of this carbon pulse to the atmosphere. Depending on the climate scenario and model assumptions, the carbon pulse could range from 0 to 3 Gt of C yr−1. The wide range of pulse estimates is a function of uncertainties in the rate of future vegetation change and in the values of key model parameters.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen, L.H. Jr., (1990) ‘Plant responses to rising carbon dioxide and potential interactions with air pollutants’, J. Environ. Qual. 19, 15–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Auclair, A.N.D. (1985) ‘Postfire regeneration of plant and soil organic pools in a Picea mariana-Cladonia stellaris ecosystems’, Can. J. For. Res. 15, 279–291.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bolin, B. (1983) ‘The carbon cycle’, in The Major Biogeochemical Cycles and Their Interactions, SCOPE Report No. 21. John Wiley, Chichester, pp. 41–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bolin, B. (1986) ‘How much CO2 will remain in the atmosphere’, in B. Bolin, B.R. Döös, J. Jäger, and R.A. Warrick (eds.), The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, pp. 93–155.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonan, G.B. and Shugart, H.H. (1989) ‘Environmental factors and ecological processes in boreal forests’, Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 20, 1–28.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonan, G.B., H.H. Shugart, and D.L. Urban. 1990. ‘The sensitivity of some high-latitude boreal forests to climatic parameters’, Clim. Change 16, 9–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bormann, F.H. and G.E. Likens. (1979) Pattern and process in a forested ecosystem. Springer-Verlag, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Botkin, D.B. and Simpson, L.G. (1990) ‘Biomass of the North American boreal forest’, Biogeochem. 9, 161–174.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cofer, W.R., III, Levine, J.S., Winstead, E.L. and Stocks, B.J. (1990) ‘Gaseous emissions from Canadian boreal forest fires’, Atmos. Environ. 24A, 1653–1659.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, M.B. (1986) ‘Climatic instability, time lags, and community disequilibrium’, in J. Diamond and T.J. Case (eds.), Community Ecology, Harper and Row, NY.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daubenmire, R. (1968) ‘Soil moisture in relation to vegetation distribution in the mountains of Northern Idaho’, Ecology 49, 431–438.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson, R.E. (1983) ‘Land surface processes and climate — surface albedos and energy balance’, Adv. Geophys. 25, 305–353.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dixon, R. and Turner, D.P. (1991) ‘The global carbon cycle and climate change: responses and feedbacks from below-ground systems’, Environ. Poll. 73, 245–262.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dolph, J., D. Marks, and King, G.A. (In press) ‘Sensitivity of the regional water balance in the Columbia River Basin to climate variability: Application of a spatially distributed water balance model’, in R.J. Naiman (ed.), Watershed Management: Balancing Sustainability with Environmental Change, Springer-Verlag. New York, NY, U.S.A.

  • Edmonds, R.L. (1987) ‘Decomposition rates and nutrient dynamics in small-diameter woody litter in four forest ecosystems in Washington, U.S.A.’, Can. J. For. Res. 17, 499–509.

    Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, W.R., Shugart, H.H., and Stevenson, M.P. (1985a) ‘Climatic change and the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes’, Clim. Change 7, 29–43

    Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, W.R., Shugart, H.H., and Stevenson, M.P. (1985b) ‘Response to comment: Climatic change and the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes’, Clim. Change 7, 457–460.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fahnestock, G.R. and J.K. Agee. (1983) ‘Biomass consumption and smoke production by prehistoric and modern forest fires in Western Washington’, J. For. 81, 653–657.

    Google Scholar 

  • Foster, J.R. and Lang, G.E. (1982) ‘Decomposition of red spruce and balsam fir boles in the White Mountains of New Hampshire’, Can. J. For. Res. 12, 617–626.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleick, P.H. (1987a) ‘Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases’, Clim. Change 10, 137–161.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleick, P.H. (1987b) ‘The development and testing of a water balance model for climate impact assessment: modeling the Sacramento Basin’, Water Resources Res. 23, 1049–1061.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gucinski, H., Marks, D., and Turner, D.P., (editors) (1990) Biospheric Feedbacks to Climate Change: The Sensitivity of Regional Trace Gas Emissions, Evapotranspiration, and Energy Balance to Vegetation Redistribution, Status of Ongoing Research, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA/600/3-90/078.

  • Hansen, J., Fung, I., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., and Russell, G. (1988) ‘Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model’, J. Geophys. Res. 93, 9341–9364.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harmon, M.E., J.F. Franklin, F.J. Swanson, P. Sollins, S.V. Gregory, J.D. Lattin, N.H. Anderson, S.P. Cline, N.G. Aumen, J.R. Sedell, G.W. Lienkaemper, K. Cromack, Jr., and K.W. Cummins. (1986) ‘Ecology of coarse woody debris in temperate ecosystems’, Adv. Ecol. Res. 15, 133–302.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holdridge, L.R. (1947) ‘Determination of world formulations from simple climatic data’, Science 105, 367–368.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holdridge, L.R. (1967) Life Zone Ecology, Tropical Science Center, San Jose, PR.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, R.A. 1990. ‘The global effects of tropical deforestation’, Environ. Sci. Tech. 24, 414–422.

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC). (1990) Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, Report for WGI Plenary Meeting. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jenkinson, D.S., Adams, D.E. and Wild, A. (1991) ‘Model estimates of CO2 emissions from soil in response to global warming’, Nature 351, 304–306.

    Google Scholar 

  • King, G.A., Winjum, J.K., Dixon, R.K., and Arnaut, L.Y, (editors). (1990) Response and Feedbacks of Forest Systems to Global Climate Change, US Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR, USA, EPA/600/3-90/080.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lashof, D.A. (1989) ‘The dynamic greenhouse: Feedback processes that may influence future concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and climatic change’, Clim. Change 14, 213–242.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier, D.P., and Gan, T.Y. (1990) ‘Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin river basin, California, to global warming’, Water Resources Res. 26, 69–87.

    Google Scholar 

  • Levine, J.S. (1990) Global biomass burning: Atmospheric, climatic and biospheric implications. Eos 11, 1075–1077.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S., and Wetherald, R.T. (1987) ‘Large-scale changes in soil wetness induced by an increase in carbon dioxide’, J. Atmos. Sci. 44, 1211–1235.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marland, G., A. Boden, R.C. Griffin, S.F. Huang, P. Kanciruk, and T.R. Nelson. (1989) Estimates of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing, based on the United Nations energy statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Mines cement manufacturing data. ORNL/CDIAC-25. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell, J.F.B. (1989) ‘The “greenhouse” effect and climate change’, Rev. Geophys. 27(1), 115–139.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neilson, R.P., and King, G.A. (In press) ‘Continental scale biome responses to climatic change’, in D. McKenzie, E. Hyatt, and J. MacDonald, (eds.), Proceedings of International Symposium: Ecological Indicators. Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Oct. 16–19, 1990, Elsevier Science Publishers, Ltd.

  • Neilson, R.P., King, G.A., and Koerper, G. (In press) ‘Toward a rule-based biome model’, Lands. Ecol.

  • Neilson, R.P., King, G.A., DeVelice, R.L., Lenihan, J., Marks, D., Dolph, J., Campbell, B., and Click. G. (1989) Sensitivity of Ecological Landscapes and Regions to Global Climate Change. EPA/600/3-89/073, NTIS-PB90-120-072/AS, Washington D.C.

  • Neilson, R. P., G.A. King, R.L. DeVelice, and J.M. Lenihan. (1992) ‘Regional and local vegetation patterns: the responses of vegetation diversity to subcontinental air masses’, In: Landscape Boundaries: Consequences for Biotic Diversity and Ecological Flows (Ecological Studies 92). Proceedings of Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, International Council of Scientific Unions, Workshop on Ecotones, edited by A. Hansen and F. di Castri. Springer-Verlag, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olson, J.S. (1963). ‘Energy storage and the balance of producers and decomposers in ecological systems’, Ecology 44, 322–331.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olson, J.S.. Watts, J.A., and Allison, L.J. (1983) Carbon in Live Vegetation of Major World Ecosystems, ORNL-5862, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN., USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Overpeck, J.T., Rind, D., and Goldberg, R. (1990) ‘Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation’, Nature 343, 51–53.

    Google Scholar 

  • Post, W.M., Emanuel, W.R., Zinke, P.J., and Stangenberger, A.G. (1982) ‘Soil carbon pools and world life zones’, Nature 298, 156–159.

    Google Scholar 

  • Post, W.M., Peng, T-H., Emanuel, W.R., King, A.W., Dale, V.H., and DeAngelis, D.L. (1990) ‘The global carbon cycle’, Am. Scientist 78, 310–326.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentice, K.C. (1990) ‘Bioclimatic distribution of vegetation for General Circulation Model studies’, J. Geophys. Res. 95, 11811–11830.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentice, K.C., and Fung, I.Y. (1990) ‘Bioclimatic simulations test the sensitivity of terrestrial C storage to perturbed climates’, Nature 346, 48–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentice, I.C., Sykes, M.T., and Cramer, W. (1991) ‘The possible dynamic response of northern forests to global warming’, Global Ecol. Biogeog. Lett, 1, 129–135.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schlesinger, M.E., and Zhao, Z.C. (1989) ‘Seasonal climatic change introduced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the OSU atmospheric GCM/mixed-layer ocean model’, J. Climate 2, 429–495.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, J.B., and Tirpak, D. (editors). (1989) The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Report to Congress, EPA-230-05-89-050, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, T.M., Shugart, H.H., Bonan, G.B., and Smith, J.B. (1991) ‘Modeling the potential response of vegetation to global climate change’. Adv. Ecol. Res. 22, 93–116.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, T.M., Leemans, R., and Shugart, H.H. (In press) ‘Sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to in2 induced climate change: comparison of four scenarios based on general circulation models’, Clim. Change.

  • Stephenson, N.L. (1990) ‘Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance’. Amer. Nat. 135, 649–670.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. West. (1988) Hydrodata user's manual: USGS daily and peak values. Version 2.0. US West Optical Publishing, Denver, Colorado.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waring, R. H. and W.H. Schlesinger. (1985) Forest Ecosystems, Concepts and Management. Academic Press, Inc., Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Publishers. Orlando.

    Google Scholar 

  • Whittaker, R.H, (1975) Communities and Ecosystems, 2nd Edition, MacMillan Publishing Co., Inc., New York, NY, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodward, F.I. (1987) Climate and Plant Distribution, Cambridge University Press, London, England.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. ManTech Environmental Technology Inc., USA

    George A. King

  2. U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, Oregon State University, 200 SW 35th Street, 97333, Corvallis, OR, USA

    Ronald P. Neilson

Authors
  1. George A. King
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ronald P. Neilson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

King, G.A., Neilson, R.P. The transient response of vegetation to climate change: A potential source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Water Air Soil Pollut 64, 365–383 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00477111

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00477111

Keywords

Search

Navigation