Summary
The determination of density-dependence of a mortality process is attempted by taking the linear regression of the logarithm of population density (or k defined by Varley and Gradwell, 1960) against the logarithm of previous density, based on the assumption that the slope, b, of the line is smaller than unity for log density-log density relationship or larger than zero for k-log density relationship. It was concluded, however, that the following three factors violate the basic assumption, providing no density-dependence.
-
1.
In a Morris plot based on serial data, the value of b tends to be near the value of r. Thus, when the relationship is strongly affected by chance factors, giving remarkably scattered points on graph, the value of b tends to be always lower than unity.
-
2.
When the independent variables (log previous density) are subject to sampling error, the value of b tends to be smaller than unity for density-density relations or larger than zero for k-density relations.
-
3.
In Morris plot, where log densities are used twice as an independent and a dependent variables excepting the first and the last generation, the effect of timelag strongly reduces the value of b when the number of generations is not large.
Similar content being viewed by others
Literature
Anderson, R. L.: The problems of autocorrelation in regression analysis. J. Amer. Stat. Ass. 49, 113–129 (1954).
Andrewartha, H. G., Birch, L. C.: The distribution and abundance of animals. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press 1954.
Clark, L. R.: The population dynamics of Cardiaspina albitextura (Psyllidae). Aust. J. Zool. 12, 362–380 (1964).
Clark, L. R., Geier, P. W., Hughes, R. D., Morris, R. F.: The ecology of insect populations in theory and practice. London: Methuen 1967.
Eberhardt, L. L.: Correlation, regression, and density dependence. Ecology 51, 301–310 (1970).
Elton, C.: Voles, mice and lemmings. Problems in population dynamics. Weinheim: Reprint 1965.
Elton, C., Nicholson, M.: The ten-year cycle in numbers of the lynx in Canada. J. Anim. Ecol. 11, 215–244 (1942).
Ezekiel, M., Fox, K. A.: Methods of correlation and regression analysis. New York: Wiley 1959.
Harcourt, D. G.: Population dynamics of Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say) in eastern Ontario. III. Major population processes. Can. Ent. 103, 1049–1061 (1971).
Hassell, M. P., Huffaker, C. B.: The appraisal of delayed and direct densitydependence. Can. Ent. 101, 353–361 (1969).
Itô,Y.: Hikaku Seitaigaku (comparative ecology) (Japanese). tokyo: Iwanami 1959.
Itô, Y.: Life tables in population ecology, with special reference to insects (Japanese). Seibutsu Kagaku (Biol. Sci. Tokyo) 18, 127–134; 165–175 (1967).
Itô, Y., Shibazaki, A., Iwahashi, O.: Biology of Hyphantria cunea Drury (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) in Japan. IX. Population dynamics. Res. Popul. Ecol. 11, 211–228 (1969).
Johnston, J.: Econometric methods. New York: MacGraw-Hill 1963.
Kendall, M. G., Stuart, A.: The advanced theory of statistics, vol. II, 2nd ed. London: Griffin 1967.
Kiritani, K., Hokyo, N., Kimura, K.: The study on the regulatory system of the population of the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula L. (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) under semi-natural conditions. Appl. Ent. Zool. 2, 48–59 (1967).
Klomp, H.: The dynamics of a field pipulation of the pine looper, Bupalus piniarius L. Adv. ecol. Res. 3, 207–305 (1966a).
Klomp, H.: The analysis of density dependence in studies on insect population regulation. Proc. FAO Symp. on Integrated Pest Control. 2, 25–31 (1966b).
Kuno, E.: Sampling error as a misleading artefact in key-factor analysis. Res. Popul. Ecol. 13, 28–45 (1971).
Larkin, P. A., McDonald, J. G.: Factors in the population biology of the sokeye salmon of the Skeena River. J. Anim. Ecol. 37, 229–258 (1968).
Luck, R. F.: An appraisal of two methods of analyzing insect life tables. Canad. Ent. 103, 1261–1271 (1971).
Madansky, A.: The fitting of straight lines when both variables are subject to error. J. Amer. Stat. Ass. 54, 173–206 (1959).
Maelzer, D. A.: The regression of log N n +1 on log N n as a test of density dependence: An exercise with computer-constructed density-independent populations. Ecology 51, 810–822 (1970).
Miller, C. A.: The black-headed budworm in eastern Canada. Can. Ent. 98, 592–613 (1966).
Miyashita, K.: Some considerations on the population fluctuation of rice stem borer (in Japanese with English summary). Bull. natl. Inst. agric. Sci. C 5, 99–109 (1955).
Morris, R. F.: Single-factor analysis in population dynamics. Ecology 40, 580–588 (1959).
Morris, R. F.: Predictive equations based on key-factors. Mem. ent. Soc. Canada, No 32, 16–21 (1963a).
Morris, R. F. (ed.): The dynamics of epidemic spurce budworm populations. Mem. ent. Soc. Can. No 31, 1–332 (1963b).
Morris, R. F.: The value of historical data in population research, with particular reference to Hyphantria cunea Drury. Can. Ent. 96, 356–368 (1964).
Morris, R. F., Miller, C. A., Greengank, D. O., Mott, D. G.: The population dynamics of the spruce budworm in eastern Canada. Proc. Xth Int. Congr. Ent. (Montreal) 4, 137–149 (1958).
Mukerji, M. K.: Major factors in survival of the immature stages of Hylemya brassicae (Diptera: Anthomyiidae) on Cabbage. Can. Ent. 103, 717–728 (1971).
Neilson, M. M., Morris, R. F.: The regulation of European spruce sawfly numbers in the Maritime Provinces of Canada from 1937–1963. Can. Ent. 96, 773–784 (1964).
Nicholson, A. J.: An outline of the dynamics of animal populations. Aust. J. Zool. 2, 9–65 (1954).
Nicholson, A. J.: The self adjustment of populations to change. Cold Spr. Harb. Symp. quant. Biol. 22, 153–173 (1957).
Paradis, R. O., Le Roux, E. J.: Recherches sur la biologie et la dynamique des populations naturelles d'Archips argyrospilus (Wlk.) (Lepidoptères: Tortoricidae) dans le sud-ouest du Québec. Mém. Soc. ent. Can. No 43 (1965).
Reddinguis, J.: Gambling for existence. Thesis, Groningen University (1968).
Richards, O. W.: The theoretical and practical study of natural insect populations. Ann. Rev. Ent. 6, 147–162 (1961).
Salt, G. W.: An examination of logarithmic regression as a measure of population density response. Ecology 47, 1035–1039 (1966).
Sasaba, T., Kiritani, K.: Evaluation of rôles of two or more mortality factors acting contemporaly. Paper read at 18th Ann. Meeting of Ecol. Soc. Japan (Kyoto) (1971).
Snedecor, G. W.: Statistical methods. Ames, Iowa: State Univ. Press 1956.
Solomon, M. E.: Analysis of precesses involved in the natural control of insects. Adv. ecol. Res. 2, 1–58 (1964).
Solomon, M. E.: Logarithmic regression as a measure of population density response: Comment on a report by G. W. Salt. Ecology 49, 357–358 (1968).
Southwood, T. R. E.: Ecological methods with particular reference to the study on insect populations. London: Methuen 1966.
Southwood, T. R. E.: The interpretation of population changes. J. Anim. Ecol. 36, 519–529 (1967).
Sprent, P.: Models in regression and related topics. London: Methuen 1969.
St. Amant, J. L. S.: The detection of regulation in animal populations. Ecology 51, 823–828 (1971).
Varley, G. C., Gradwell, G. R.: Key factors in population studies. J. Anim. Ecol. 29, 399–501 (1960).
Varley, G. C., Gradwell, G. R.: The interpretation of insect population changes. Proc. Ceylon Ass. Adv. Sci. 18 (D), 142–156 (1963).
Varley, G. C., Gradwell, G. R.: Interpreting winter moth population changes. Proc. XIIth int. Congr. Ent. (London), 377–378 (1965).
Varley, G. C., Gradwell, G. R.: Population models for the winter moth. In: Southwood, T. R. E. (ed.), Insect abundance, p. 132–142. Oxford: Blackwell 1968.
Varley, G. C., Gradwell, G. R.: Recent advances in insect population dynamics. Ann. Rev. Ent. 15, 1–24 (1970).
Watt, K. E. F.: Mathematical models for use in insect pest control. Can. Ent., Suppl. 19, 1–62 (1961).
Watt, K. E. F.: Density dependence in population fluctuations. Can. Ent. 96, 1147–1148 (1964).
Watt, K. E. F.: Ecology and resource management. New York: McGraw-Hill 1968.
Yule, G. U.: Why do we sometimes get nonsence-correlations between time series? A study in sampling and the nature of time series. J. roy. Stat. Soc. 89, 1–64 (1926).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Itô, Y. On the methods for determining density-dependence by means of regression. Oecologia 10, 347–372 (1972). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00345737
Received:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00345737