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Systems of Partial Control: Ethnic Dynamics in Post-Soviet Estonia and Latvia

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Abstract

This article offers a theory to capture ethnic dynamics in post-Soviet Estonia and Latvia. It also explores a research question of great interest to political scientists, historians, sociologists, and economists: what accounts for stability in deeply divided societies? Drawing on Ian Lustick’s formulation of control, the author suggests that stability in deeply divided societies is a result of conscious efforts made by elites to construct what she calls “systems of partial control.” In such systems, the majority ethnic group controls the political sector, but shares control of the economic sector with minority ethnic groups. Economic prosperity derived from dispersed economic control accounts for stability in Estonia and Latvia. The article identifies two conditions that must be satisfied for elites to tolerate partial control. First, elites must reach a threshold of political hegemony at which point they dominate the political sector and second, the respective state must have a flourishing private sector. The article concludes with an assessment of whether or not systems of partial control are likely to be stable, and a reflection on implications of these systems beyond the post-Soviet region.

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Notes

  1. For alternative definitions of a deeply divided society, see Nordlinger (1972) and Lijphart (1977).

  2. These cases are the focus of analysis because Estonia and Latvia have larger Russian populations than Lithuania. In 1989, the population of the Estonian SSR was 30% Russian; the population of the Latvian SSR was 34% Russian; and the population of the Lithuanian SSR was 9% Russian. See Bremmer and Taras (1993) “Appendix B.”

  3. There are many minorities within Estonia and Latvia, but Russians represent the largest minority in each country. In 1989, the Estonian SSR was comprised of Estonians (61.5%), Russians (30.3%), Ukrainians (3.1%), Belorussians (1.8%), and others (3.3%); the Latvian SSR was comprised of Latvians (52%), Russians (34%), Belorussians (4.5%), Ukrainians (3.5%), and others (6%). See Khazanov (1995, p. 248).

  4. In accordance with Lijphart, who offers a multidimensional definition of political stability, I emphasize system maintenance and civil order more than legitimacy and effectiveness.

  5. Still, Russians have protested: in the early 2000s, they opposed the Latvian government’s decision to restrict the percent of classroom hours taught in Russian in state schools with programs for national minorities; in 2007, they opposed the Estonian government’s decision to remove a Soviet war memorial from the center of Tallinn. Yet these isolated incidents did not challenge democracy.

  6. While 7% of Estonia’s population has citizenship of another country, 12% has undetermined citizenship status. See Citizenship and Migration Board (2003) and http://www.mig.ee. Similarly, 18% of Latvia’s population has noncitizenship status, while 2% has “alien” status. See Naturalization Board of the Republic of Latvia, http://www.np.gov.lv.

  7. See McGarry and O’Leary (1993a) and O’Leary (2001) for a discussion of these methods.

  8. See Esman (1987); Hewitt (1977); Lane and Ersson (1990); Rudolph and Thompson (1985); Yiftachel (1992b); and Zariski (1989). Scholars point out that consociationalism and control are difficult to stabilize. McGarry and O’Leary argue that consociationalism is easily destabilized because it requires the presence of three demanding conditions: (1) rival segments cannot be committed to immediate integration or assimilation; (2) leaders must have the right motivations to sustain the system; and (3) elites of each ethnic segment must possess sufficient autonomy to compromise without being accused of betrayal. McGarry and O’Leary (1993a) also emphasize that the subordinate group in a control context may seek to internationalize its suffering, which threatens stability.

  9. In Lustick’s (1997, p. 90) view, “the success of the consociational research program cannot be explained on the basis of its explanatory power or heuristic value” but by a reliance on the political and rhetorical skills of its “leading practitioner” and “alliances between those practitioners and political interests outside the scientific arena.”

  10. Yiftachel (1992a) offers a compelling critique of Smooha’s classification of Israel as an ethnic democracy.

  11. See Smith (1996); Smith and Wilson (1997); Kolsto and Tsilevich (1997); Steen (2000); Smith et al. (2002); and Diatchkova (2005).

  12. Smooha (2005, p. 55) classifies Malaysia as a consociational democracy because its coalition government included representatives of and provided autonomy to all major ethnic groups, but he notes that the Malay majority maintained political power while non-Malay minorities maintained economic power.

  13. For more on Latvia’s citizenship regime, see Commercio (2004); for more on Estonia’s citizenship regime, see Park (1994) and Feldman (2003).

  14. For Estonia’s regulations, see “Citizenship Act,” January 19, 1995, http://www.legaltext.ee/indexen.htm; for Latvia’s regulations see Zakon o Grazhdanstve, (July 22, 1994).

  15. The cases differ in terms of local elections: noncitizens in Latvia cannot vote or run for office, while noncitizens in Estonia can vote but cannot run for office.

  16. Both parties supported moderate nationalism and economic reform. Fatherland commanded 22% of the Estonian vote and acquired 29 of 100 seats, and Latvia’s Way commanded 32% of the Latvian vote and acquired 36 of 100 seats.

  17. Zakon o Grazhdanstve (July 22, 1994). Note that the government abolished the window system in 1998 in response to pressure from the EU to relax naturalization requirements. See Izmeneniia v Zakone o Grazhdanstve (1998).

  18. For Estonia’s language law see “Language Act,” February 21, 1995, http://www.legaltext.ee/indexen.htm; for Latvia’s language law see Zakon o Gosudarstvennom Iazyke (December 21, 1999).

  19. Respondents were asked “Which of the following best describes your employer? Is it: state budgetary organization, state-owned enterprise, privatized enterprise, mixed state-private, new private enterprise, foreign-owned enterprise/joint venture, or other?” The phrase “state sector” refers to state budgetary organizations and state enterprises.

  20. These individuals were either self-employed or worked for privatized firms, new private enterprises, or foreign-owned firms. See Rose (2000, p. 5).

  21. The 2004 survey categories changed slightly. Here the private sector refers to a privatized enterprise, a private enterprise that was established after 1990, or a foreign-owned enterprise. See Rose (2005, p. 39).

  22. 1994 figures are from Westin (1998); 2005/2006 figures are from European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Country Factsheets (Estonia and Latvia), www.ebrd.com/economics.

  23. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2006, pp. 84, 88).

  24. Baltic Institute of Social Sciences (2004).

  25. Pabriks (2002), and Baltic Institute of Social Sciences (2004).

  26. In 2000 Estonia amended the Law on Basic and Upper Secondary Schools (Hughes 2005); in 2004, Latvia amended the Law on Education (Zakon ob Obrazovanii November 17, 1998 c izmeneniuami vnecennymi po sostoianiiu 5 Febralia 2004 goda, Article 9).

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Acknowledgment

The author wishes to thank James Goldgeier, Ian Lustick, Brendan O’Leary, two anonymous reviewers, and the managing editor and editorial board at Studies in Comparative International Development.

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  1. Department of Political Science, University of Vermont, Old Mill Room 520, 94 University Place, Burlington, VT, 05405-0114, USA

    Michele E. Commercio

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Commercio, M.E. Systems of Partial Control: Ethnic Dynamics in Post-Soviet Estonia and Latvia. St Comp Int Dev 43, 81–100 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12116-007-9013-5

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