Abstract
The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) of the ocean on seasonal rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula is studied for the period 1951–2006. Seasonal correlations were calculated for all seasons and different lags applied on SST. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The most significant and repetitive correlation is found between SST over Equatorial Pacific and spring rainfall. The correlation is maintained for different lags, and the common area that satisfies the criteria for statistical field significance is coincident with ENSO area. A forecast scheme is developed to predict spring rainfall anomalies based in SST over ENSO area in precedent seasons. An analysis of principal components was also carried out to obtain the main modes of the Pacific Ocean and their influence on spring rainfall in NWIP. This study concludes that for the period 1951–2006 the negative phase of ENSO, “La Niña”, almost always announces dry springs in NW Iberian Peninsula. However, the positive phase of ENSO, “El Niño”, does not anticipate the appearance of wet springs.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barnston AG, Livezey RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon Weather Rev 115:1083–1126
Black E, Sutton RT (2006) The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot European summer of 2003. Clim Dyn 28:53–66
Brönnimann S (2007) The impact of El Niño/Southern oscillation on European climate. Rev Geophys 45:RG3003. doi:10.1029/2006RG000199
deCastro M, Lorenzo MN, Taboada JJ, Sarmiento M, Álvarez I, Gómez-Gesteira M (2006) Influence of teleconnection patterns on precipitation variability on river flow regimes in the Miño River basin (NW Iberian Peninsula). Clim Res 32:63–73
deCastro M, Gómez-Gesteira M, Álvarez I, Lorenzo MN, Cabanas JM, Prego R, Crespo AJC (2008a) Characterization of fall-winter upwelling recurrence along the Galician western coast (NW Spain) from 2000 to 2005: dependence on atmospheric forcing. J Mar Syst 72:145–158
deCastro M, Gómez-Gesteira M, Lorenzo MN, Álvarez I, Crespo AJC (2008b) Influence of atmospheric modes on coastal upwelling along the western coast of the Iberian Peninsula, 1985 to 2005. Clim Res 36:169–179
Diaz HF, Hoerling MP, Eischeid JK (2001) ENSO variability, teleconnections, and climate change. Int J Climatol 21:1869–1886
Gallego D, Ribera P, García-Herrera R y Gimeno L (2005) A new look for the Southern Hemisphere jet stream. Clim Dyn 24:607–621
Gimeno L, Gallego D, de la Torre L, Nieto R, Ribera P y García-Herrera R (2007) A new diagnostic of stratospheric polar vortices. J Atmos Sol-Terr Phys 69:1797–1812. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2007.07.013
Gómez-Gesteira M, Gimeno L, deCastro M, Lorenzo MN, Alvarez I, Nieto R, Crespo AJC, Ramos AM, Taboada JJ, Santo FE, Barriopedro D (2011) The state of climate in the Euroregion Galicia–North Portugal. Clim Res (in press)
Greatbatch RJ, Lu J, Peterson KA (2004) Non-stationary impact of ENSO on Euro-Atlantic winter climate. Geophys Res Lett 31:L02208. doi:10.1029/2003GL018542
Hoerling MP, Kumar A, Xu T (2001) Robustness of the nonlinear climate response to ENSO’s extreme phases. J Clim 14:1277–1293
Hoerling MP, Hurrell JW, Xu T, Bates GT, Phillips AS (2004) Twentieth century north atlantic climate change part II: understanding the effect of indian ocean warming. Clim Dyn 23:391–405
Hurrell JW (1996) Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature. Geophys Res Lett 23:665–668
Knippertz P, Ulbrich U, Marques F, Corte-Real J (2003) Decadal changes in the link El Niño, NAO and European/North African rainfall. Int J Climatol 23:1293–1311
Livezey RE, Chen WY (1983) Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon Weather Rev 111:46–59
Lorenzo MN, Taboada JJ (2005) Influences of atmospheric variability on freshwater input in Galician Rías in winter. J Atmos Ocean Sci 10(4):377–387
Lorenzo MN, Iglesias I, Taboada JJ, Gómez-Gesteira M (2010) Relationship between monthly rainfall in NW Iberian Peninsula and North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Int J Climatol 30:980–990
Mariotti A, Ballabrera-Poy J, Zeng N (2005) Tropical influence on Euro-Asian autumn rainfall. Clim Dyn 24(5):511–521. doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0498-6
Martínez Cortizas A, Pérez Alberti A (2000) Atlas climático de Galicia Centro de información e tecnoloxía ambiental. Desenvolvemento sostible. Xunta de Galicia
Murphy AH, Winkler RL (1987) A general framework for forecast verification. Mon Weather Rev 115:1330–1338
Peterson THC, Vose R, Schmoyer R, Razuvaev V (1998) Global historical climatology network (GHCN) quality control of monthly temperature data. Int J Climatol 18:1169–1179
Philips ID, McGregor GR (2002) The relationship between monthly and seasonal south-west England rainfall anomalies and concurrent North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Int J Climatol 22:197–217
Philips ID, Thorpe J (2006) Icelandic precipitation-North Atlantic sea-surface temperature associations. Int J Climatol 26:1201–1221
Pozo-Vázquez D, Gámiz-Fortis SR, Tovar-Pescador J, Esteban-Parra MJ, Castro-Díez Y (2005) El Niño-Southern oscillation events and associated European winter precipitation anomalies. Int J Climatol 25:17–31
Richman MB (1986) Rotation of principal components. Int J Climatol 6:293–335
Rodó X, Baert E, Comín FA (1997) Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Clim Dyn 13:275–284
Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ (1996) Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Q J R Meteorol Soc 122:1385–1404
Rodwell MJ, Rowell DP, Folland CK (1999) Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature 398:320–323
Trauth MH (2006) MATLAB recipes for earth sciences, p 238. Springer. ISBN 3540279830
Trenberth KE (1990) Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Norther Hemisphere. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 71:988–993
Trigo RM, Pozo-Vazquez D, Osborn TJ, Castro-Diez Y, Gamiz- Fortis S, Esteban-Parra MJ (2004) North Atlantic Oscillatin influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula. Int J Climatol 24:925–944
van Oldenborgh GJ, Burgers G (2005) Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15701. doi:10.1029/2005GL023110
van Oldenborgh GJ, Burgers G, Tank AK (2000) On the El-Niño teleconnection to spring precipitation in Europe. Int J Climatol 20:565–574
Vega FA, Covelo EF, Andrade ML (2006) Competitive sorption and desorption of heavy metals in mine soils: influence of mine soil characteristics. J Colloid Interface Sci 298:582–592
Vicente-Serrano SM, López-Moreno JI (2008) Nonstationary influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on European precipitation. J Geophys Res 113:D20120. doi:10.1029/2008JD010382
Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences: an introduction. International Geophysics Series, 59. Academic, San Diego; 464 pp
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lorenzo, M.N., Taboada, J.J., Iglesias, I. et al. Predictability of the spring rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula from sea surfaces temperature of ENSO areas. Climatic Change 107, 329–341 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9991-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9991-6