Abstract
Anthropogenic emission inventory for aerosols and reactive gases is crucial to the estimation of aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. Here, the anthropogenic emission inventory for AerChemMIP, endorsed by CMIP6, is briefly introduced. The CMIP6 inventory is compared with a country-level inventory (i.e., MEIC) over China from 1986 to 2015. Discrepancies are found in the yearly trends of the two inventories, especially after 2006. The yearly trends of the aerosol burdens simulated by CESM2 using the two inventories follow their emission trends and deviate after the mid-2000s, while the simulated aerosol optical depths (AODs) show similar trends. The difference between the simulated AODs is much smaller than the difference between model and observation. Although the simulated AODs agree with the MODIS satellite retrievals for country-wide average, the good agreement is an offset between the underestimation in eastern China and the overestimation in western China. Low-biased precursor gas of SO2, overly strong convergence of the wind field, overly strong dilution and transport by summer monsoon circulation, too much wet scavenging by precipitation, and overly weak aerosol swelling due to low-biased relative humidity are suggested to be responsible for the underestimated AOD in eastern China. This indicates that the influence of the emission inventory uncertainties on simulated aerosol properties can be overwhelmed by model biases of meteorology and aerosol processes. It is necessary for climate models to perform reasonably well in the dynamical, physical, and chemical processes that would influence aerosol simulations.
摘要
气溶胶和活性气体的人为排放清单对于估算气溶胶辐射强迫和气候效应至关重要。本文简要介绍了CMIP6计划中气溶胶与化学模式比较计划(AerChemMIP)的人为源排放清单, 并将1986年至2015年期间CMIP6清单与中国多尺度排放清单(MEIC)进行了比较。结果表明, 这两份清单的年趋势存在差异, 特别是在2006年之后。两份清单在地球系统模式CESM2中的模拟结果表明, 气溶胶柱浓度的年趋势遵循其各自的排放趋势, 并从2000年代中期开始差异变大, 而二者模拟的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)表现出相似的趋势。两份清单模拟的AOD之间的差异远小于模式与观测之间的差异。虽然模拟的全国平均AOD值与MODIS卫星反演结果一致, 但这个良好的一致性是由于中国东部地区被低估的AOD与中国西部地区被高估的AOD相抵消造成的。中国东部地区AOD值被低估的主要原因包括SO2气态前体物模拟的浓度偏低、风场辐合过强从而使夏季风环流的稀释和输送作用过强、降水湿清除过多、相对湿度偏低导致气溶胶吸湿增长过弱等。这些结果表明, 气象和气溶胶过程的模拟偏差对所模拟的气溶胶特性的影响可能超过了排放清单不确定性的影响。我们有必要进一步改善地球系统模式中影响气溶胶模拟的大气动力、物理和化学过程。
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Acknowledgements
We greatly appreciate the constructive comments and suggestions from the two reviewers. The authors would like to thank Dr. Zheng LU for providing the CESM2 version that incorporates the MOSAIC module. Special thanks to Dr. Bo ZHENG in the MEIC team for the discussion on details about the scaling process of CEDS to MEIC. This work is supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41830966). Tianyi FAN is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 2017YFC1501403, 42030606, and 41705125).
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Article Highlights
• Discrepancies exist between the anthropogenic emission inventory for CMIP6 and the country-level emission inventory, MEIC.
• Yearly trends of the simulated aerosol burden deviate between CMIP6 and MEIC after the mid-2000s, but not for the aerosol optical depth.
• Influence of the emission inventory on aerosol simulations is overwhelmed by model dynamical, physical, and chemical processes.
Data availability statement
The CMIP6 emission inventory used by CESM2 is downloaded via SVN with the CESM2 release. The gridded emission dataset from the CEDS Project for use in CMIP6 historical and preindustrial control runs is distributed through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The CESM2 source code and datasets was released to the community in June 2018 (available at www.cesm.ucar.edu:/models/cesm2/). The MEIC and MIC emission inventories are obtained from the MEIC webpage (http://www.meicmodel.org). The global emission dataset that was merged with MEIC for the 30-year period (1986–2015) is available upon request (contact fantianyi@bnu.edu.cn).
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Comparison of the Anthropogenic Emission Inventory for CMIP6 Models with a Country-Level Inventory over China and the Simulations of the Aerosol Properties
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Fan, T., Liu, X., Wu, C. et al. Comparison of the Anthropogenic Emission Inventory for CMIP6 Models with a Country-Level Inventory over China and the Simulations of the Aerosol Properties. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 80–96 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1119-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1119-6