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Chance discovery and scenario analysis

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Abstract

Scenario analysis is often used to identify possible chance events. However, no formal, computational theory yet exists for scenario analysis. In this paper, we commence development of such a theory by defining a scenario in an argumentation context, and by considering the question of when two scenarios are the same.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Computer Science, University of Liverpool, L69 7ZF, Liverpool, UK

    Peter McBurney

  2. Center for Co-ordination Science, Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 02142, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Simon Parsons

Authors
  1. Peter McBurney
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  2. Simon Parsons
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Peter McBurney.

Additional information

Peter McBurney, Ph.D.: He is a lecturer in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Liverpool, UK. He has a first degree in Pure Mathematics and Statistics from the Australian National University, Canberra, and a Ph.D in Artificial Intelligence from the University of Liverpool. His Ph.D research concerned the design of protocols for rational interaction between autonomous software agents, and he has several publications in this area. Prior to completing his Ph.D he worked as a consultant to major telecommunications network operating companies, primarily in mobile and satellite communications, where his work involved strategic marketing programming.

Simon Parsons, Ph.D.: He is currently visiting the Sloan School of Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and is a Visiting Professor at the University of Liverpool, UK. He holds a first degree in Engineering from Cambridge University, and an MSc and Ph.D in Artificial Intelligence from the University of London. In 1998, he was awarded the Young Engineer Achievement Medal of the British Institution of Electrical Engineers (IEE), the largest professional engineering society in Europe. He has published 4 books and over 100 articles on autonomous agents and multi-agent systems, uncertainty formalisms, risk and decision-making.

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McBurney, P., Parsons, S. Chance discovery and scenario analysis. NGCO 21, 13–22 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03042322

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03042322

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