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Stochastic modelling of solar-radiation data

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Il Nuovo Cimento C

Summary

Daily global solar-radiation sequences are studied for Italy. We show that the experimental data can be described as a first-order autoregressive stochastic process independent of locality or season: the only climatic information needed is the monthly average of the clearness index. We also show that the clearness index sequences can be transformed in sequences with normal distribution but with the same autocorrelation properties; it is then easy to construct synthetic sequences of radiation data with the same statistical properties as the real data, useful for performance prediction of solar systems.

Riassunto

Si analizzano le serie temporali dei valori giornalieriK T (rapporto tra la radiazione solare globale su superficie orizzontale e la radiazione extra-atmosferica) per il territorio italiano. Si dimostra che i dati possono essere descritti con processi stocastici autoregressivi del primo ordine indipendentemente dalla località o stagione: la sola informazione necessaria è il valore medio mensile dei rapportiK T . Si dimostra inoltre che le successioni dei valoriK T possono essere trasformate in successioni con funzione di distribuzione normale e con le stesse caratteristiche statistiche di autocorrelazione dei dati originari; in tal modo è poi possibile costruire successioni di dati di radiazione, di lunghezza pari al numero di giorni in un mese e con le stesse proprietà statistiche dei dati sperimentali, utili per il calcolo delle prestazioni di sistemi solari.

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Abbreviations

F exD :

daily experimental global radiation on horizontal surface

F ext :

daily extra-atmospheric radiation on horizontal surface

K T :

F exp/F ext

n :

number of days in a month

t :

day index in the month

K :

monthly average value of\(K_T :X = {{\left( {\sum\limits_{t = 1}^m {K_T } } \right)} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\left( {\sum\limits_{t = 1}^m {K_T } } \right)} m}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} m}\)

x(t) :

K T (t)−X

ϱ:

first autocorrelation coefficient

ϱ:

estimate of γ

ε:

stochastic variable

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Istituto di Fisica della Facoltà di Ingegneria dell'Università degli Studi, Napoli, Italia

    U. Amato, A. Andretta, B. Bartoli, B. Coluzzi, V. Cuomo & C. Serio

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  1. U. Amato
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  2. A. Andretta
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  3. B. Bartoli
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  4. B. Coluzzi
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  5. V. Cuomo
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  6. C. Serio
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Amato, U., Andretta, A., Bartoli, B. et al. Stochastic modelling of solar-radiation data. Il Nuovo Cimento C 8, 248–258 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02574711

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02574711

PACS. 92.60

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