Abstract
The quantitative expansion in higher education in most countries has not been linear. After a very strong expansion in the 1960s there was a stage of stagnation. In the early 1990s, however, there are signs of a new development towards universal higher education. This is a very distinct feature at present in Norway. Since 1988 the student population has increased by more than 50%.
This article argues that the present pressure on higher education in Norway cannot be understood without taking into consideration both the long-term trends and acute accumulation of pressure at the moment. A demographic model of analyzing changes in the student population and the factors explaining both individual demands and political decisions are discussed. The needs of the labour market for a higher educational level of the workforce and the increasing level of education among the parents may explain the long-term trends in enrolment. A deteriorating labour market forces youth to go straight into higher education. The average age of the new entrants is therefore decreasing, resulting in even more pressure. The increased competition to be admitted results in repeated application to higher education, so that the number of applicants is more than one and a half times the relevant age group.
The article also raises the question whether the Norwegian situation at present is unique or related to a more general trend.
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Aamodt, P.O. Floods, bottlenecks and backwaters: an analysis of expansion in higher education in Norway. High Educ 30, 63–80 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01384053
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01384053