Abstract
The influence of uncertain parameters on Gas Initially in Place (GIIP) during coalbed methane reservoir modelling is quantified and ranked in SE block of Bowen basin, Australia. The data set available for this study include: 40 2D seismic lines with length of 460km, 288 well data with logs (Gamma ray, density, etc.), core sample data from 49 wells and GIS data (formation outcrop, intrusive, faults, etc.). In order to rank reservoir uncertainties, the proposed workflow is developed and comprises the following steps: seismic interpretation, coal ply correlation, fault modelling and 3D geo-cellular grid construction, population of the geological model with petrophysical parameters, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, and probabilistic volume calculation. The parameters such as structural surfaces, density cutoff value, coal thickness, gas content, ash, moisture, etc. which affect the GIIP are considered in geological modelling and evaluated in low, base and high cases to get the sensitivity analysis. Then the main parameters ranked in the sensitivity analysis affecting the volumetrics are incorporated into the modelling procedure, and all combinations of these screened parameters in low, base and high cases are modelled for the uncertainty analysis. Based on the multiple static model realizations, the P10, P50 and P90 volumetrics from probabilistic GIIP distributions of these models are subsequently generated and the corresponding low, middle and high probabilistic CBM models can be selected for the reservoir simulation in the next step. Results show that the highest ranked contributors to uncertainty in GIIP are gas content, coal thickness, structural depth and density cutoff value, and in order to minimizing the uncertainties, more sample data collection and analysis, more detail spatial coal distribution, more accurate 2D seismic procession and interpretation, and new 3D seismic data should be done to provide more reliable results.
Copyright 2022, IFEDC Organizing Committee.
This paper was prepared for presentation at the 2022 International Field Exploration and Development Conference in Xi’an, China, 16–18 November 2022.
This paper was selected for presentation by the IFEDC Committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper, as presented, have not been reviewed by the IFEDC Technical Team and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessarily reflect any position of the IFEDC Technical Committee its members. Papers presented at the Conference are subject to publication review by Professional Team of IFEDC Technical Committee. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper for commercial purposes without the written consent of IFEDC Organizing Committee is prohibited. Permission to reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may not be copied. The abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment of IFEDC. Contact email: paper@ifedc.org.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Philpot, J.A., Mazumder, S., Naicker, S., et al.: Coalbed Methane Modelling Best Practices, IPTC 17137. In: China International Petroleum Technology Conference, Beijing, China (2013)
Yang, Y., Zhang, M., Bie, A., Cui, Z., Xia, Z.: An Integrated approach to uncertainty assessment for coalbed methane model. In: Qu, Z., Lin, J. (eds.) Proceedings of the International Field Exploration and Development. SSGG, pp. 1560–1567. Springer, Singapore (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7560-5_142
Yang, Y., Bie, A.-F., Bie, H., Zhang, M., Cui, Z.-H., Liu, X.-Y.: Coal ply distributions and quantitative prediction in Tipton gas field. In: Lin, J. (ed.) Proceedings of the International Field Exploration and Development. SSGG, pp. 1472–1484. Springer, Singapore (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0761-5_137
Bueno, J.F., Drummond, R.D., Vidal, A.C., et al.: Constraining uncertainty in volumetric estimation: a case study from Namorado field, Brazil. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. 77(2), 200–208 (2011)
Yang, Y., et al.: geological analysis on three dimensional variogram model. In: Lin, J. (ed.) Proceedings of the International Field Exploration and Development Conference 2021, pp. 2683–2693. Springer Nature, Singapore (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2149-0_249
Adeloye, M.O., Kevin, A.U., et al.: Quantifying uncertainty in oil reserves estimate. Res. J. Eng. Sci. 4(12), 1–8 (2015)
Samimi, A.K., Karimi, G.: Sensitivity & uncertainty analysis of original oil-in-place in carbonate reservoir modelling, A case study. Pet Coal. 56(3), 332–338 (2014)
Yang, Y., et al.: Geological influential factors on the sis well productivity in Teviot-brook block, Moranbah gas field. In: Lin, J. (ed.) Proceedings of the International Field Exploration and Development. SSGG, pp. 794–808. Springer, Singapore (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-2485-1_71
Soleimani, M., Jodeiri Shokri, B., Rafiei, M.: Integrated petrophysical modeling for a strongly heterogeneous and fractured reservoir, Sarvak formation. SW Iran. Nat Resour Res. 26(1), 75–88 (2017)
Stuart, J.Y., Mountney, N.P., McCaffrey, W.D., Lang, S.C., Collinson, J.D.: Prediction of channel connectivity and fluvial style in the flood-basin successions of the Upper Permian Rangal coal measures (Queensland). AAPG Bull. 98(2), 191–212 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1306/06171312088
Rodrigues, S., Kwitko-Ribeiro, R., Collins, S., et al.: Coal characterization by QEMSCAN: the study case of Bowen Basin. In: 10th Australian Coal Science Conference, Brisbane, QLD Australia (2013)
Michaelsen, P., Henderson, R.A., Peter, J., et al.: Facies architecture and depositional dynamics of the upper Permian Rangal coal measures, Bowen Basin. Australia J. Sediment. Res. 70 (4): 879–895(2000)
Michaelsen, P., Henderson, R.A.: Facies relationships and cyclicity of high-latitude, late permian coal measures, Bowen Basin, Australia. Int. J. Coal Geol. 44(1), 19–48 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-5162(99)00048-8
Peters, T., Hearn, S.: The influence of coal-mine geology on seismic data quality in the Bowen Basin. In: ASEG 15th Geophysical Conference and Exhibition, Brisbane (2001)
Leahy, G.M., Skorstad, A.: Uncertainty in subsurface interpretation: a new workflow. First Break 31(9), 87–93 (2013)
Yang, Y., et al.: A case study of subsurface uncertainty analysis in modelling carbonate reservoir. In: Lin, J. (ed.) Proceedings of the International Field Exploration and Development. SSGG, pp. 851–864. Springer, Singapore (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7127-1_79
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the support of Arrow Energy Pty Ltd.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Yang, Y., Bie, Af., Li, Yg., Bie, Hy., Liu, Xy., Zhu, Xl. (2023). Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Volumetric Estimation in a CBM Reservoir, Bowen Basin. In: Lin, J. (eds) Proceedings of the International Field Exploration and Development Conference 2022. IFEDC 2022. Springer Series in Geomechanics and Geoengineering. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-1964-2_584
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-1964-2_584
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-99-1963-5
Online ISBN: 978-981-99-1964-2
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)