Abstract
Collisions are rare random events. Many traffic safety indexes with a small-sized temporal or spatial unit, e.g., daily collisions of a city or a regional highway network, are highly random and fiercely fluctuated. The descriptive and inferential analyses for this type of short-term collision time series data, abbreviated as SCTS data in this paper, are still not well-established yet. This paper is to tackle this issue by a newly emerging approach—pattern mining combined with data mining methods. Based on a collision database, calendar information, and historical weather records, the approach of descriptive statistics was employed to illustrate correlations between all data items and to identify main affecting factors for a SCTS response, with respective to single variable pattern, variable pair and multiple variable correlations. Then the structure and flow-chart of the major attributes led to different SCTS outputs were further investigated by means of decision tree method. The established decision tree structure was then utilized to predict SCTS values of future days as consequence from their calendar characters and weather forecasts. The approaches of description and inference of SCTS data developed in this paper filled in the methodological vacancy of discovering SCTS data pattern and to infer their attributes. The study of this paper also provided a viable solution to predict SCTS and therefore help to pre-schedule safety countermeasures for practitioners.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Chin H-C, Huang H (2008) Modeling multilevel data in traffic safety: a Bayesian hierarchical approach. In: Transportation accident analysis and prevention. Nova Science Publishers, Inc., New York, pp 53–106
Clifton C (2010) Encyclopædia Britannica: definition of data mining. http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1056150/data-mining. Accessed 4 Aug 2014
Coghlan A (2012) Time Series 0.2 Documentation. http://a-little-book-of-r-for-time-series.readthedocs.org/en/latest/index.html. Accessed 3 July 2012
Environment Canada (2013) Daily data reports, Environment Canada, Government Canada. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ALTA&StationID=50149&dlyRange=2012-09-01%7C2012-11-08&cmdB1=Go&Year=2013&Month=6&cmdB1=Go. Accessed 24 June 2013
Hauer E, Bamfo J (1997) Two tools for finding what function links the dependent variable to the explanatory variables. In: Proceedings of the ICTCT 1997 Conference
Hauer E (2007) Observational before-after studies in road safety. Emerald Group Publishing Limited
King WB (2013) R Tutorials: simple linear correlation and regression. http://ww2.coastal.edu/kingw/statistics/R-tutorials/simplelinear.html. Accessed 27 Dec 2013
Lund A, Lund, M (2013) Laerd statistics: pearson product-moment correlation. https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/pearson-correlation-coefficient-statistical-guide.php. Accessed on 27 Dec 2013
Mela C-F, Kopalle P-K (2002) The Impact of Collinearity on regression analysis: the asymmetric effect of negative and positive correlations. Appl Econ 34:667–677
Nagpaul P-S (2005) Time series analysis in WinIDAMS. Communication and Information, UNESCO. http://portal.unesco.org/ci/en/files/18650/11133194701TimeSeriesAnal.pdf/TimeSeriesAnal.pdf. Accessed 10 Nov 2015
Office of Traffic Safety (2013) Motor vehicle collision 2012. Annual Report, City of Edmonton. http://www.edmonton.ca/transportation/OTS_Motor_Vehicle_Collisions_2012_Annual_Report.pdf. Accessed 25 July 2013
Page S-E (2014). Chapter 1: Decision Tree. Online Course—Model Thinking, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States. http://vserver1.cscs.lsa.umich.edu/~spage/ONLINECOURSE/R4Decision.pdf. Accessed August 15 2014
R Development Core Team (2013) Correlation, variance and covariance (Matrices). R Documentation. http://stat.ethz.ch/R-manual/R-patched/library/stats/html/cor.html. Accessed 27 Dec 2013
Torgo L (2011) Data mining with R—Learning with case studies. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Taylor & Francis Group, Boca Raton, Florida, United States
Wallace, D. (2014). Descriptive versus inferential statistics, Lesson 1: Introduction. Lecture Note of Statistics for Psychology, Faytteville State University, North Carolina, United States. http://faculty.uncfsu.edu/dwallace/Lesson%201.pdf. Accessed 04 Aug 2014
Wikipedia (2014) Decision Tree. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_tree. Accessed 21 Aug 2014
Zhang H (2010) Identifying and quantifying factors affecting traffic crash severity in Louisiana. Ph.D. Dissertation, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the supports of this paper by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC0809603).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Chen, Y., Sun, C. (2023). Pattern Mining and Predictive Inference on Short-Term Weather and Collision Time Series Data. In: Wang, W., Wu, J., Jiang, X., Li, R., Zhang, H. (eds) Green Transportation and Low Carbon Mobility Safety. GITSS 2021. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 944. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5615-7_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5615-7_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-19-5614-0
Online ISBN: 978-981-19-5615-7
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)