Skip to main content

Energy Internet-Oriented Distribution Network Long-Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Prophet-BiLSTM-CRITIC Mode

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Conference Proceedings of 2021 International Joint Conference on Energy, Electrical and Power Engineering

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering ((LNEE,volume 899))

  • 616 Accesses

Abstract

Power load forecasting plays a pivotal role in improving the safety and stability of the distribution networks. First, the Prophet and Bi-directional Long short-term memory (BiLSTM) models were established respectively. Then, the CRITIC weight method was used to linearly combine the two models. Finally, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were defined evaluation indicators. Through comparing with Prophet, BiLSTM, ARIMMA forecasting model of one distribution network, the prediction accuracy of the Prophet-BiLSTM-CRITIC model proposed in this paper was significantly higher than the other single models.

Science-Technology Innovation Platform and Talents Program of Hunan Province, China, under Grant 2019TP1053.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Yenidoğan I, Çayir A, Kozan O et al (2018) Bitcoin forecasting using ARIMA and PROPHET. In: 2018 3rd international conference on computer science and engineering (UBMK). IEEE, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, pp 621–624

    Google Scholar 

  2. Shuvo MAR, Zubair M, Purnota AT et al (2021) Traffic forecasting using time-series analysis. In: 2021 6th international conference on inventive computation technologies (ICICT). IEEE, Coimbatore, India, pp 269–274

    Google Scholar 

  3. Parizad A, Hatziadoniu CJ (2021) Using prophet algorithm for pattern recognition and short term forecasting of load demand based on seasonality and exogenous features. In: 2020 52nd North American power symposium (NAPS). IEEE, Tempe, AZ, USA, pp 1–6

    Google Scholar 

  4. Holden K, Peel DA (2010) An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts. J Forecast 5(4)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Liwen L, Dabin Z (2019) A review of construction and application of combination forecast model. Statist Decis 35(01):18–23

    Google Scholar 

  6. Taylor SJ, Letham B (2018) Forecasting at scale. Am Statist 72(1):37–45

    Google Scholar 

  7. Chang T, Guo Z, Xu L (2019) Scale prediction of AQI based on prophet-random forest optimization model. Environ Pollut Control 41(7):758–761+766

    Google Scholar 

  8. Graves A, Schmidhuber J (2005) Framewise phoneme classification with bidirectional LSTM and other neural network architectures. Neural Netw 18(5–6):602–610

    Google Scholar 

  9. Li Y, Yuxi W, Junli W et al (2018) Research on recurrent neural network. J Comput Appl 38(z2):1–6, 26, 1–6+26

    Google Scholar 

  10. Siami-Namini S, Tavakoli N, Namin AS (2019) The performance of LSTM and BiLSTM in forecasting time series. In: 2019 IEEE international conference on big data (big data).IEEE, Los Angeles, CA, USA, pp 3285–3292

    Google Scholar 

  11. Kiruthiga D, Manikandan V (2021) Time series load forecasting using multitask deep neural network. In: 2021 IEEE second international conference on control, measurement

    Google Scholar 

  12. Zhang H, Lu M, Luo X et al (2019) Evaluation of black-start schemes based on prospect theory and improved TOPSIS method. In: 2019 IEEE international conference on energy internet (ICEI). IEEE, Nanjing, China, pp 339–344

    Google Scholar 

  13. Wenjie F, Xiangning X, Shun T (2018) A multi-index evaluation method of voltage sag based on the comprehensive weight. In: 2018 China international conference on electricity distribution (CICED). IEEE, Tianjin, China, pp 613–617

    Google Scholar 

  14. Li YJ, Yang Y, Zhu K et al (2021) Clothing sale forecasting by a composite GRU-prophet model with an attention mechanism. Trans Ind Inform

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wenying Li .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Li, W., Guo, Q., Wen, M., Zhang, Y., Pan, X., Yang, S. (2022). Energy Internet-Oriented Distribution Network Long-Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Prophet-BiLSTM-CRITIC Mode. In: Hu, C., Cao, W., Zhang, P., Zhang, Z., Tang, X. (eds) Conference Proceedings of 2021 International Joint Conference on Energy, Electrical and Power Engineering. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 899. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1922-0_48

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1922-0_48

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-19-1921-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-19-1922-0

  • eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics