Abstract
This chapter deals with the influence of gender relations on transition to motherhood in Kyrgyzstan. Although a shift of fertility towards older age was dominant in the post-Soviet space during the recent decades, some post-Soviet countries with mainly Muslim population showed stability of age patterns, with the peak of women’s fertility remaining below 25. Kyrgyzstan is one of those countries, and the authors investigate whether the parameters of gender relations are at least partly “responsible” for the lack of fertility postponement there. It is shown that among the Muslim peoples of Kyrgyzstan, first marriage hazards are positively related to low education of a woman, approval of husband’s violence towards wife, and others and are declining from elder to younger birth cohorts. Meanwhile, first birth hazards among married women demonstrate no relation to gender asymmetries. The analysis has shown that the lowering of first marriage hazards for younger cohorts can be due to certain modernization of gender relations and loosening of the traditional norm that prescribes early marriage for women. This is accompanied by a low social acceptability of out-of-marriage fertility. Under these conditions, younger women are likely to enter the first marriage mainly after they have consciously chosen to have children. This supports the relatively early timing of first births in Kyrgyzstan.
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Notes
- 1.
The total fertility rate indicates the number of children who would have been born per woman (or per 1,000 women) if she/they were to pass through the reproductive period bearing children according to a current schedule of age-specific fertility rates.
- 2.
Fig. 1 only includes countries whose population statistics are treated as relatively reliable. Georgia is not included as data on fertility in that country could be debatable because of abrupt changes in official TFR estimates after the census in 2014 and 2002 (this indirectly demonstrates problems with migration statistics), and because data from this country does not include breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia (see Sulaberidze et al. 2019). The reliability of the TFR for Moldova is also debatable due to the possibly low accuracy of migration statistics (see Penina et al. 2015). The TFR for Ukraine could be underestimated due to problematic quality of statistics in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions after separatists took power there in 2014 and due to difficulties in estimating internal and external migration at the country level (Romaniuk and Gladun 2015). The data from Tajikistan are unreliable because of poor migration statistics quality (Chudinovskikh 2006) that leads to strange fluctuations in TFR. Finally, for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, TFRs are calculated only on administrative statistics, which cannot be compared to census data. For instance, in post-Soviet Uzbekistan no census was ever held between 1991 and 2019, and census results for Turkmenistan are not public. However, without a comparison with census results, the reliability of administrative statistics is questionable.
- 3.
This does not mean that the relation between strict gender asymmetries and early timing is restricted to Muslim societies. In some post-Soviet countries with a different religious composition of population retaining or revival of traditional gender relations was considered as one of the possible reasons for certain changes in fertility (see Klüsener et al. 2019 for Belarus).
- 4.
In 2018 the proportion of ethnic Kyrgyz was about 73.3% according to the National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyz Republic: Uzbek at 14.7% and Russians at 5.6%. No other ethnicity had a proportion higher than 1% (http://www.stat.kg/ru/opendata/category/312/).
- 5.
Both surveys supply the dates of the actual start of the women’s first marriage, whether registered or not. The MICS questionnaire asked for the date when a respondent “first married or started living with a man as if married,” while the DHS asked about “starting living with the first husband/partner.”
- 6.
Kyrgyz migration survey reported more than 700 thousand Kyrgyz citizens registered in other countries (including 640 thousand in Russia) in 2018 (State migration service of Kyrgyz government 2020). Russian official statistics reported 360–400 thousand labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan (10% of all labor migrants coming to Russia) in 2016 (Zajonchkovskaya et al. 2018, p. 368). Notably, the proportion of women among migrants from Kyrgyzstan to Russia was about 40% in recent years, which is higher than among most of other migration flows targeting Central and Eastern Europe (FIDH 2016).
- 7.
Note that the results of the Russian Census 2010 agree with the suggestion of selectivity of Kyrgyz migrants for lower fertility. That is, the completed fertility of real cohorts of Kyrgyz women living in Russia indicated by Census results (not shown here) is much lower compared with the same cohorts of women Kyrgyzstan.
- 8.
See Sect. 2.6 for further discussion.
- 9.
Note that models estimated for the MICS2014 sample in Kazenin and Kozlov (2020) give slightly different results for inter-cohort hazard ratios. There models are run for the whole sample of the MICS2014, unlike models only for the two biggest indigenous ethnicities in the present chapter.
- 10.
See Denissenko et al. (2012) for a detailed discussion of out-of-marriage fertility in Kyrgyzstan.
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The chapter was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research program and the research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University).
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Kazenin, K., Kozlov, V. (2021). Gender Relations and Transition to Motherhood in the Post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan. In: Karabchuk, T., Kumo, K., Gatskova, K., Skoglund, E. (eds) Gendering Post-Soviet Space. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9358-1_2
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