Skip to main content

Risk Measurement of Supply Chain Finance Based on the VaR Model

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Frontier Computing (FC 2019)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering ((LNEE,volume 551))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

This paper combines the practical activities of the supply chain with existing theories to explore new ways to measure financial risks in the supply chain. We establish a supply chain financial risk measurement index system based on the VaR model, and use the Monte Carlo simulation method to conduct empirical analysis. The results show that banks can use the VaR model to investigate the business status of the enterprise according to the financial data such as profit rate and return on assets in the actual operation of these enterprises. At the same time, the β value is introduced on the basis of the traditional VaR model. The use of the VaR model and the β value can help the bank to quantitatively screen the financing object according to its own risk preference. When the β value of the enterprise with financing demand is greater than the set value, then the bank will without lending, the β value also helps banks scientifically allocate financing quotas and effectively control risks.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 259.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 329.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 329.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Robstad, Ø.: House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: evidence from structural VAR models. Empir. Econ. 54(2), 461–483 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Huber, F., Fischer, M.M.: A Markov switching factor-augmented VAR model for analyzing US business cycles and monetary policy. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 80(3), 575–604 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Nyberg, H.: Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model. J. Forecast. 37(1), 1–15 (2017)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  4. Christou, C., Cunado, J., Gupta, R., Hassapis, C.: Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model. J. Multinatl. Financ. Manag. 40, 92–102 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Droumaguet, M., Warne, A., Woźniak, T.: Granger causality and regime inference in Markov switching VAR models with Bayesian methods. J. Appl. Econ. 32(4), 802–818 (2017)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  6. Bouri, E., Gupta, R., Hosseini, S., Lau, C.K.M.: Does global fear predict fear in BRICS stock markets? Evidence from a Bayesian graphical structural VAR model. Emerg. Mark. Rev. 34, 124–142 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Gouriéroux, C., Monfort, A., Renne, J.P.: Statistical inference for independent component analysis: application to structural VAR models. J. Econ. 196(1), 111–126 (2017)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  8. Šljivić, N.M.: Cross-entropy method for estimation of posterior expectation in Bayesian VAR models. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 46(23), 11933–11947 (2017)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  9. Pacifico, A.: Structural panel bayesian VAR model to deal with model misspecification and unobserved heterogeneity problems. Econometrics 7(1), 1–24 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Chen, P., Semmler, W.: Financial stress, regime switching and spillover effects: evidence from a multi-regime global VAR model. J. Econ. Dyn. Control 91, 318–348 (2018)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chuan-Yang Ruan .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Lin, XL., Li, H., Ruan, CY. (2020). Risk Measurement of Supply Chain Finance Based on the VaR Model. In: Hung, J., Yen, N., Chang, JW. (eds) Frontier Computing. FC 2019. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 551. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3250-4_163

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics