Abstract
This paper focused on future precipitation scenarios adopting statistical downscaling approach, namely, Multiple linear regression (MLR) for Lower Godavari basin, India. Global Climate Model (GCM), namely, GFDL-CM3 simulations, are used for downscaling purpose. Five grid points of Lower Godavari basin are considered. Reanalysis data from National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the study area from 1969 to 2005 is used for analysis. Precipitation is chosen as predictand. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, 4.5 and 6.0 are used for the study. Projected precipitation from 2006 to 2100 is obtained by the developed MLR model. Downscaled precipitation predictions show that there is increase in precipitation in the future.
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Acknowledgements
The second author is grateful to Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi for supporting the present work, through project no. 23(0023)/12/EMR-II dated 15.10.2012 and to Prof D. Nagesh Kumar, IISc, Bangalore for providing valuable inputs while preparing this paper. Authors acknowledge the modeling groups for making their simulations available for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the CMIP5 model output, and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) for organizing the model data analysis activity. First author is thankful to Mr. I Nagababu, Formerly Senior Research Fellow of CSIR project and Ms. Radhika, NRSC Hyderabad for providing data and inputs.
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Akshara, G., Srinivasa Raju, K., Singh, A.P., Vasan, A. (2018). Application of Multiple Linear Regression as Downscaling Methodology for Lower Godavari Basin. In: Singh, V., Yadav, S., Yadava, R. (eds) Climate Change Impacts. Water Science and Technology Library, vol 82. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-5714-4_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-5714-4_3
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