Skip to main content

Sustainable Development and Risk Evaluation: Challenges and Possible New Methodologies

  • Chapter
Risk Science and Sustainability

Part of the book series: NATO Science ((NAII,volume 112))

  • 243 Accesses

Abstract

It is common today in environmental, political, economic, and biological studies to recognise the importance of sustainability and sustainable development (SD). It is also recognised that an essential part of SD is the evaluation of risks. But it should be stressed that the concept of SD has to date been descriptive without strict formalisation. There are many definitions of SD — in papers, memorandums, declarations, and programs (see for example [13]), including Agenda 21 after the Rio de Janeiro Summit in 1992 [4]. Since 1992 there have been many advances in developing SD concepts, but it have been many difficulties in formalisation and implementation of this concept at the global and regional scales.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Blank, J.-J. (2000) Bioethism a universal paradigm as substratum to collective and local consciousness that would maintain sustainability and adaptability of local sociosystems, in T. Ecimovic, E.A. Stuhler, and M. Vezjak (eds.) Local Agenda 21. Through Case Method Research and Teaching Towards a Sustainable Future, Rainer Hampp Verlag, Muenchen, pp. 192–221.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Spangenberg, J.H., Omann, I., Bockermann, A., and Meyer, B. (2001) Modeling sustainability — European and German approaches, in P.M. Allen (ed.) Integrative Systems Approaches to Natural and Social Dynamics, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 481–503

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  3. Bruntland, H. (1987) Our common future, Report of the world commission on environment and development, Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Agenda 21 (1992) Results of the Earth Summit (1992) United Nations, New York http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/agenda21.htm. and Report of the World Summit in Sustainable Development (2002), http://www.johannesburgsummit.org/html/documents/summit_docs.html

  5. The Budapest Manifesto (2002) Declaration of Euroscience — International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Workshop “Science for Reduction of Risk and Sustainable Development of Society”, Budapest 14-16 June 2002, Euroscience News 21, 6–7.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Forrester, J.W. (1971) World Dynamics, University Press, Massachusetts, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  7. De Tombe, D. and Rosendal, B. (1998) Cooperative and interactive policy making: Some history views, in J. Geurts, C. Joldersma, and E. Roelofs (eds.) Gaming / Simulation for policy Development and Organisational Change, Tilburg University Press, pp. 71–79.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Ecimovic, T., Stuhler, E.A., and Vezjak, M., eds. (2000) People, Nature, Space and Environment. Vol. 1, Reiner Hampp Verlag, Muenchen.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Makarenko, A. (1998) Global economic models of associative memory types for considering sustainable development, in Elohimjl, Francisco Parra-Luna, Ehlmar A. Stuhler (eds.) Proc. 13 Ml Conference WACRA-Europe, Madrid, Spain, 16-1923 August 19978, Vol. 2, Righner-Hepp edition, Muenchen, pp.1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Makarenko, A. and Klestova, Z. (1999) A new class of global models of associative memory type as a tool for considering global environmental change, in S.C. Lonergan (ed.) Environmental Change, Adaptation and Security, Kluwer AP, Dordrecht/Boston/London, pp. 223–228.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  11. Levkov, S and Makarenko, A. (1995) Geopolitical relations in post USSR Europe as a subject of mathematical modelling and control, in Proc. 7th JFAC/JFORS/JMACS Symposium: Large scale Systems. Vol.2. Pergamon Press, London, p.983–987.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Meadows D.H., Meadows D.L., Randers J., Rehrens W.W. (1972) The limit of growth. Universe Books, N.-Y.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Parsons T. (1971) The System of Modern Societies. Prentice-Hall, Engelwood Cliffs, NJ.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Easton D. (1965) A system analysis of political life. Wiley, N.Y.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Durkheim E. (1984) The Division of Labor in Society. (Translated at 1893 by W.D.Halls). The Free Press, N.Y.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Le Bon G. (2001) The Crowd. A study of the Popular mind. 1896. Batoche Books, Kitchener.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Jung C.G. (1968) The Archetypes and the Collective Unconscious. In Collected Works, Vol. 9, Part 1. Princenton Univ.Press, Princenton.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Tarde G. (1899) Social Laws. An Outline of Sociology. MacMillan Company, N.-Y.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Moscovici S. (1985) The age of the crowds. Cambridge Univ.Press, Cambridge, Mass.

    Google Scholar 

  20. Kelly G.A. (1955) The psychology of personal constructs. Vol.1. A theory of personality. Norton, N.Y., London.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Francella F., Bannister D. (1977) A manual for repertory grid technique. Acad.Press., L.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Hopfield, J.J. (1982) Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computational abilities, Proc. Natl Acad. Sc. 79, 2554–2558.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Haykin, S. (1994) Neural Networks: Comprehensive Foundations, MacMillan College Publishing Co, N.-Y.

    Google Scholar 

  24. Murray J.D. (1977) Lectures on Nonlinear-Differential-Equations Models in Biology. Clarendon Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  25. ESWGTT(2002) Euroscience working group of technology transfer. Ukrainian branch. http://www.kiev.technology-transfer.net

  26. Wooldrige, M. and Jennings, N. (1995) Agent theories, architectures, and languages: A survey, in J.G. Carbonelli, J. Siekmann. (eds.) Proc. 1994 Workshop on Agent Theories, Architectures, and Languages, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 1–29.

    Google Scholar 

  27. Stanley, H., Amaral, L., Canning, D., Gopikrishnan, P. and Lee, Y. (1999) Econophisics: can physicists contribute to the science of economics? Physica A 269, 156–169.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Makarenko, A. (2000) Models with anticipatory property for large socio-economic systems, in M. Devill, R. Owens (eds.) Proc. 16th World Congress of IMACS, Lausanna, Switzerland, 21-25 August 2000. Paper n. 422-1 (CD-ROM).

    Google Scholar 

  29. Makarenko, A. (2002) Anticipating in modeling of large social systems — neuronets with internal structure and multivaluedness, Int. J. Comput. Anticipatory Systems 13, 77–92.

    Google Scholar 

  30. Dubois, D.M. (1998) Introduction to computing anticipatory systems, Int. J. Comput. Anticipatory Systems 2, 3–14.

    Google Scholar 

  31. Rosen, R. (1985) Anticipatory Systems, Pergamon Press, L..

    Google Scholar 

  32. Lewin K. (1951) Field theory in social science, N.Y.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Everett H. (1957) “Relative State” Formulation of Quantum Mechanics. Review of Modern Physics, Vol. 29, n. 3. 454–465.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Liebl, F. (2001) Rethinking Trends — And How to Link Them to Scenarios. Report at Conf. EURO OR, Rotterdam, Holland, July 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  35. Beer T., Foran B. (2000) Management for the Future. Risk Management: Future Options and Scenario Analysis, in T. Beer (ed.) Risk Management and the Future, AMEEF, Melburne. 39–68.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Klestova, Z., Makarenko, A. and Samorodov, E. (2001) Geoinformational systems as technical tools for monitoring and decision-making in emergent situations and health cere, in D. Briggs (ed.) Proc. NATO Advanced Research Workshop: GIS for emergency preparedness and health risk reduction, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (in print).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Allen, P.M. (2001) The dynamics of knowledge and ignorance: Learning the new system science, in P.M. Allen (ed.) Integrative systems approaches to natural and social dynamics, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 3–29.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2003 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Makarenko, A. (2003). Sustainable Development and Risk Evaluation: Challenges and Possible New Methodologies. In: Beer, T., Ismail-Zadeh, A. (eds) Risk Science and Sustainability. NATO Science, vol 112. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0167-0_8

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0167-0_8

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-1447-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-010-0167-0

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics