Abstract
Ensemble construction and treatment are considered in application to the atmospheric composition problem. One emergency and one air quality test case are discussed. Performances of several approaches to the ensemble treatment are compared: (a) static methods based on mean, median, upper and lower percentiles, (b) adaptive weighting based on dynamic solutions of minimization problems for selected statistical scores, (c) heuristic methods using the model scores as the weighting parameters, (d) spatially homogeneous and inhomogeneous weighting coefficients. For the adaptive weighting of ensemble members, the predictability of the scaling coefficients for the future times and the possibility of their extrapolation outside the area where they are established via model-measurement comparison are considered.
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Acknowledgments
This study was performed within the scope of the EU-MACC project. Support of the COST Action ES0602, Estonian National Targeted Financing Project SF0180038s08, and the Estonian Science Foundation (grant 7005) are appreciated.
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Prank, M., Sofiev, M., Vira, J., Paales, M. (2011). Construction and Performance Analysis of a Limited-Size Ensemble of Atmospheric Dispersion Simulations. In: Steyn, D., Trini Castelli, S. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXI. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1359-8_73
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1359-8_73
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