Research on 21st Century Climate Change in the Republic of Macedonia

Abstract

This chapter comprises updated results from research on projected climate change in the Republic of Macedonia in the course of the twenty-first century in relation to the previously set-out National Communications on Climate Change, an obligation under the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change. The results displayed here deal with air temperature and precipitation analysis on a seasonal and annual basis according to various emission scenarios for the years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100. Emission scenarios IS92a and IS92c as well as HadCM2, UKTR, UKHI-EQ, CSIRO-EQ and CCC-EQ models (for the First National Communication) and emission scenarios SRES A1T, A1Fl, A1B, and B1 (for the Second National Communication) are used. Projections are based on interpolated values from four selected Global Circulation Models (GCMs), namely CSIRO/Mk2, HadCM3, ECHAM4-OPYC3 and NCAR-PCM, whereas for local projection regarding different climatic regions of Macedonia, the method of empirical downscaling is applied.

The GCMs directly involving output on projected climate change in the Republic of Macedonia show a more intensive increase in air temperature in the summer season over the winter season and much higher values of expected temperature change in the country than the expected global temperature change. In general, almost no change in precipitation is expected for the winter season, but quite a strong decrease is expected in summer precipitation. Local projections for climate change indicate that different climatic regions in the country will respond differently to large-scale climate changes.