Time-space model for the next eruption

Summary

The main objective of this chapter is developing a robust temporal model capable of producing a background (long-term) probability distribution for the time of the next explosive eruption at Campi Flegrei. In the last 15 ka, intense and mostly explosive volcanism has occurred within and along the boundaries of the caldera (see Chapter 2; e.g. [97]). Eruptions occurred closely spaced in time, over periods from a few centuries to a few millennia, and were alternated by periods of quiescence lasting even several millennia; sometimes events also occurred closely in space thus generating a cluster of events (e.g. [96]). As a consequence, activity has been generally subdivided into three distinct epochs, i.e. Epoch I, 15 – 10.6 ka; Epoch II, 9.6 – 9.1 ka, and Epoch III, 5.5 – 3.8 ka BP (e.g. [122, 145]). The most recent Monte Nuovo eruption (e.g. [56, 58, 79]) occurred in 1538 AD after more than 2.7 ka from the previous one. Unfortunately, there is a remarkable epistemic uncertainty on the eruptive record, affecting the time of eruptions, location of vents as well as the erupted volume estimates. Other studies including information about the time-space eruptive behaviour of Campi Flegrei are [133, 139, 57, 54].