Sino-American Relations: A Long View

Abstract

I am used to being an optimist about Sino–US relations. Although the bilateral relationship exhibits many conflicts and disputes over more than 20 years, and many differences do exist between the two countries (for example, different social systems, different values, ideologies, cultural backgrounds, and historical traditions, etc.), still, you must carefully note one point: relations between the two nations cannot break down thoroughly. It has not happened in the past, and it is hard to imagine it happening in the future. Why? The reason is simple. In today’s world, China and the United States have a relationship sharing broad common strategic interests, both political and economic. Such a relationship will not end because of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, neither China nor the United States can take leave of the other. This being the case, can they always maintain a relatively harmonious, stable and normal relationship? This seems unlikely because there are so many conflicts and differences between them, from specific issues of interest to their world views. There are always disputes because of conflicts and a lack of unanimity. Even at their worst, the bickering and quarrels will not lead to a severing of diplomatic ties. Recalling an ambassador may be the lowest point, but should this point be reached, the pendulum would swing back again.

Lecture given at the Pomona College, USA, in 1996.