Abstract
This paper presents an overview of some proposed probabilitybased service life prediction methods. Primary concern is focused on the methods that are of interest in service life assessment of an outdoor structure. The survey includes methods for characterizing random load histories, for modeling material deterioration, and for evaluating both instantaneous and progressive probabilities of failure. A numerical example, showing the service life and reliability of a viscoelastic structure under outdoor environmental loadings, is given.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Haviland, R. P., Engineering Reliability and Long Life Design, D. Van Nostrand, New York, 1964.
Bolotin, V. V., Prediction of Service Life for Machines and Structures, ASME Press, New York, 1989.
Masters, L. W., ed., Problems in Service Life Prediction of Bulding and Construction Materials, NATO ASI Series E: Applied Sciences - No. 95, Martinus Publishers, the Netherland, 1985.
Čačko, J., Bily, M., and Bukoveczky, J., Random Processes: Measurement, Analysis, and Simulation, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1988.
Khosrovaneh, A. K. and Dowling, D. E., Fatigue Loading History Reconstruction Based on the Rainflow Technique, International Journal of Fatigue, Vol. 12, No. 2, 1990, pp. 99–106.
Haibach, E., Fischer, R., Schiitz, W., and Hiick, M., A Standard Random Loading Sequence of Gaussian Type Recommended for General Application in Fatigue Testing: Its Mathematical Background and Digital Generation, Proceedings of the International Conference on Fatigue Testing and Design, Vol. 2, SEE, London, April, 1976, pp. 29.1–29.21.
Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M., Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day, San Francisco, 1976.
Priestley, M. B., Spectral Analysis and Time Series, Volume 1: Univariate Series, Academic Press, Florida, 1981.
Pandit, S. M. and Wu, S. M., Time Series and System Analysis with Applications, John Wiley and Sons, new York, 1983.
Samaras, E., Shinozuka, M., and Tsurui, A., ARMA Representation of Random Processes, Journal of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, Vol. III, No. 3, 1985, pp. 449–461.
Spanos, P. D. and Mignolet, M. P., Recursive Simulation of Stationary Multivariate Random Processes-Part 2, Journal of Applied Mechanics, ASME, Vol. 109, 1987, pp. 681–687.
Polhemus, N. W. and Cakmak, A. S., Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motions Using ARMA Models, Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, Vol. 9, 1981, pp. 343–354.
Kozin, F., Autoregressive Moving Average Models of Earthquake Records, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1988, pp. 58–63.
Houmb, O. G. and Overvik, T., Some Applications of Maximum Entropy Spectral Estimation to Ocean Waves and Linear Systems Response in Waves, Applied Ocean Resources, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1981, pp. 154–162.
Spanos, P. D., ARMA Algorithms for Ocean Wave Modeling, Journal of Energy Resource Technology, ASME, Vol. 105, September, 1983, pp. 300–309.
Reed, D. A. and Scanlan, R. H., Time Series Analysis of Cooling Tower Wind Loading, Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, Vol. 109, No. 2, 1983, pp. 538–554.
Li, Y. and Kareem, A., ARMA Systems in Wind Engineering, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1009, pp. 50–59.
Bendat, J. S. and Piersol, A. G., Engineering Application of Correlation and Spectral Analysis, John Wiley, New York, 1980.
Cooley, J. W., Lewis, P. A., and Welch, P. D., The Fast Fourier Transform and Its Applications, IEEE Transactions on Education, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1969, pp. 27–34.
Enochson, L. D. and Otnes, R. K., Programming and Analysis for Digital Time Series Data, Shock and Vibration Monograph Series, U.S. Department of Defense, Navy Publication and Printing Service Office, Washington, D.C., 1968.
Shinozuka, M. and Jan, C.-M., Digital Simulation of Random Processes and Its Applications, Journal of Sound and Vibration, Vol. 25, 1972, pp. 111–128.
Heller, R. A., Thermal Stress as a Narrow Band Random Load, Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, Vol. 102, No. EM5, October, 1976, pp. 787–805.
Wirsching, P. H. and Light, M. C., Fatigue under Wide Band Random Stresses, Journal of the Structural Division, ASCE, Vol. 106, No. ST7, July, 1980, pp. 1593–1607.
Brooks, E. M., Climate, Encyclopedia of America, Americana Corp., 1970.
Heller, R. A., Kamat, M. P., and Singh, M. P., Probability of Solid Propellant Motor Failure Due to Environmental Temperature, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 16, No. 3, 1979, pp. 140–146.
Heller, R. A. and Singh, M. P., Thermal Storage Life of Solid Propellant Motors, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 20, No. 2, 1983, pp. 144–149.
Thangjitham, S. and Heller, R. A., Test and Evaluation of Dynamic Properties of Solid-Propellant Rocket Motor Materials, Volume I-Random Environmental Thermal Load Models and Their Effects on the Service Life of Rocket Motors, Technical Report CR-RD-86–8, USAMICOM, Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, October, 1986.
Anon., Hourly Solar Radiation-Surface Meteorological Observations, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Vol. I & II, TD-9724, 1978.
Thangjitham, S. and Heller, R. A. Thermal Stresses in a Rocket Motor under Environmental Loading, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, AIAA, Vol. 23, No. 5, 1986, pp. 519–526.
Donn, W. L., Meteorology, 3rd ed., McGraw-Hill, New York, 1965.
Chou, K. C. and Corotis, R. B., Generalized Wind Speed Probability Distribution, Journal of Engineering Mechanics Division, Transactions of ASCE, Vol. 109, No. 1, February, 1983, pp. 14–29.
Dawson, T. H., Offshore Structure Engineering, Prentice Hall, N.J., 1983.
Dean, R. G. and Daynuple, R. A., Water Wave Mechanics for Engineers and Scientists, Prentice Hall, N.J., 1984.
Bretschneider, C. L., Overwater Wind and Wind Forces, in Handbook of Ocean and Underwater Engineering, Chapter 12, J. J. Meyers, et al., eds., McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969.
Layton, L. H., Chemical Aging Studies on ANB-3066 and TH-H1011 Propellants, Final Technical Report, AFRPL-TR-74–16, 1974.
Cost, T. L., Computer Simulation of Solid Rocket Motor Service Life for Thermal Loads, in Thermal Stresses in Severe Thermal Environments, D. P. H. Hasselman and R. A. Heller, eds., Plenum Press, New York, 1980, pp. 431–445.
Christensen, R. M., Theory of Viscoelasticity, Academic Press, New York, 1971.
Ferry, J. D., Viscoelastic Properties of Polymers, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1970.
Palmgren, A., Ball and Roller Bearing Engineering, translated by G. Palmgren and B. Ruley, SKF Industries, Inc, Philadelphia, PA, 1945, pp. 82–83.
Miner, M. A., Cumulative Damage in Fatigue, Journal of Applied Mechanics, ASME, Vol. 12, September, 1945, pp. l59–164.
Freudenthal, A. M., and Heller, R. A., On Stress Interaction in Fatigue and a Cumulative Damage Rule, Journal of the Aero/Space Science, Vol. 26, No. 9, 1959, pp. 431–442.
Bills, W. K., Jr. and Wiegand, J. H., The Application of an Integrated Structural Analysis to the Prediction of Reliability, Annals of Reliability and Maintainability, 1970, pp. 514–526.
Bogdanoff, J. L. and Kozin, K., Probabilistic Models of Cumulative Damage, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1985.
Bazant, Z. P., Mathematical Models for Creep and Shrinkage of Concrete, in Creep and Shrinkage in Concrete Structures, Z. P. Bazant and F. H. Wittmann, eds., John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1982.
Freudenthal, A. M., Aspects of Fatigue Damage Accumulation at Elevated Temperature, Proceedings of International Conference on Mechanisms of Fatigue, Acta Metallurgica, Vol. 77, July, 1963.
Heller, R. A. and Donat, R. C., Fatigue Failure of a Redundant Structure, ASTM-STP 404, American Society for Testing and Materials, 1964, pp. 55–66.
Paris, P. C. and Erdogan, F., A Critical Analysis of Crack Propagation Laws, Journal of Basic Engineering ) Trans. ASME, Series D, Vol. 85, 1963, pp. 528–534.
Forman, R. G., Kearney, V. E., and Engle, R. M., Numerical Analysis of Crack Propagation in Cyclic Loaded Structures, Journal of Basic Engineering, Trans. ASME, Series D, Vol. 89, 1967, pp. 459–465.
Walker, E. K., The Effect of Stress Ratio During Crack Propagation and Fatigue for 2024-T3 and 7075-T6 Aluminum, in The Effect of Environment and Complex Load History on Fatigue Life, ASTM-STP 462, 1970, pp. 1–14.
Heller, R. A. and Thangjitham, S., The Effects of Variable Temperature on Fracture, Arch. Mech., Vol. 39, 1987, pp.395–409.
Heller, R. A., ed., Probabilistic Aspects of Fatigue, ASTM STP 511, American Society for Testing and Materials, 1972.
Provan, J. W., Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics and Reliability, Martinus Nijhoff, 1987.
Hahn, G. J. and Shapiro, S. S., Statistical Models in Engineering, John Wiley k Sons, New York, 1967.
Benjamin, J. R. and Cornell, C. A., Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1970.
Ang, A H-S. and Tang, W. H., Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design: Volume I, Basic Principles, John Wiley kSons, New York, 1975.
Freudenthal, A. M., Garrelt, J. M., and Shinozuka, M., The Analysis of Structural Safety, Journal of Structural Division, Transactions of the ASCE, Vol. 92, No. ST1, 1966, pp. 267–325.
Ang, A H-S. and Tang, W. H., Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design: Volume II, Decision, Risk, and Reliability, John Wiley &Sons, New York, 1984.
Rackwitz, R., Practical Probabilistic Approach to Design, Bullentin 112, Comite European du Beton, Paris, France, 1976.
Moses, F. and Kinser, D. E., Analysis of Structural Reliability, Journal of the Structural Division, ASCE, Vol. 93, No. ST5, October, 1967.
Chamis, C. C., Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for Space Propulsion System Components, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1987, pp. 100–110.
Faravelli, L., A Response Surface Approach for Reliability Analysis, Journal of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, Vol.115, No. 12, 2763–2781.
Heller, R. A. and Janajreh, I. M., The Reliability of Rocket Motors Subjected to Static and Dynamic Loads, Technical Report CR-RD-PR- 92–4, USAMICOM, Redstone Arsenal, AL, April, 1982.
Fujita, M., Schall, G., and Rackwitz, R., Time Variant Component Reliabilities by FORM and SORM and Updating by Importance Sampling, Proceedings of ICASP5, Vancouver, Vol. 2, 1987, pp. 520–527.
Schueller, G. I. and Stix, R., A Critical Appraisal of Methods to Determine Failure Probabilities, Structural Safety, Vol. 4, 1987, pp. 293–309.
Bjerager, P., Probability Integration by Directional Simulation, Journal of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, Vol. 114, No. 8, 1988, pp. 1285–1301.
Wu, T. and Wirsching, P. H., Algorithm for Structural Reliability Estimation, Journal of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, Vol. 113, No. 9, 1987, pp. 1319–1336.
Bazovsky, I., Reliability Theory and Practice, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1961.
Cramer, H. and Leadbetter, M. R., Stationary and Related Stochastic Processes, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1967.
Zibdeh, H. S. and Heller, R. A., Environmental Thermal Stress as a First Passage Problem, in Random Vibration-Status and Recent Developments, I. Elishakoff and R. H. Lyon, eds., Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1986, pp. 537–553.
Carslaw, H. S. and Jaeger, J. C., Conduction of Heat in Solids, 2nd ed., Oxford University Press, London, 1976.
Thangjitham, S., Heller, R. A., and Singh, M. P., Frequency Response Functions for Thermal Stresses in Multilayered Cylindrical Structures, Journal of Thermal Stresses, Vol. 9, 1986, pp. 133–150.
Boley, B. A. and Weiner, J. H., Theory of Thermal Stress, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 1960.
Timoshenko, S. P. and Goodier, J. N., Theory of Elasticity, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1970.
Newland, D. E., Random Vibrations and Spectral Analysis, Longman, London, 1975.
Heller, R. A. and Singh, M. P., Allowable Strength of Viscoelastic Materials Under Variable Thermal Loads, in Thermal Stresses in Severe Thermal Environments, D. P. H. Hasselman and R. A. Heller, eds., Plenum Press, New York, 1980, pp. 491–502.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1994 Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Heller, R.A., Thangjitham, S. (1994). A Survey of Probabilistic Service Life Prediction Methods for Structures. In: Spanos, P.D., Wu, YT. (eds) Probabilistic Structural Mechanics: Advances in Structural Reliability Methods. International Union of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-85092-9_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-85092-9_15
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-85094-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-85092-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive