Abstract
The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental and unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, etc., they normally take decisions based on aggregate rather than complete information, such as TV news or stock market indices. The resulting volatile decision dynamics and decision distribution are often far from being optimal. By means of experiments, we have identified ways of information presentation that can considerably improve the overall performance of the system. We also present a stochastic behavioral description allowing us to determine optimal strategies of decision guidance by means of user-specific recommendations. These strategies manage to increase the adaptability to changing returns (payoffs) and to reduce the deviation from the time-dependent user equilibrium, thereby enhancing the average and individual outcomes. Hence, our guidance strategies can increase the performance of all users by reducing overreaction and stabilizing the decision dynamics. Our results are significant for predicting decision behavior, for reaching optimal behavioral distributions by decision support systems, and for information service providers. One of the promising fields of application is traffic optimization.
This chapter reprints parts of a previous publication with kind permission of the copyright owner, Springer Publishers. It is requested to cite this work as follows: D. Helbing, Dynamic decision behavior and optimal guidance through information services: Models and experiments. Pages 47–95 in: M. Schreckenberg and R. Selten (eds.) Human Behaviour and Traffic Networks (Springer, Berlin, 2004).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
J. Adler, V. Blue, Towards the design of intelligent traveler information systems. Transport. Res. C 6, 157–172 (1998)
R. Arnott, A. de Palma, R. Lindsey, Does providing information to drivers reduce traffic congestion? Transport. Res. A 25, 309–318 (1991)
W.B. Arthur, Inductive reasoning and bounded rationality. Am. Econ. Rev. 84, 406–411 (1994)
Articles in Route Guidance and Driver Information, IEE Conference Publications, Vol. 472 (IEE, London, 2000)
W. Barfield, T. Dingus, Human Factors in Intelligent Transportation Systems (Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ, 1998)
M. Ben-Akiva, A. de Palma, I. Kaysi, Dynamic network models and driver information systems. Transport. Res. A 25, 251–266 (1991)
M. Ben-Akiva, D.M. McFadden, et al., Extended framework for modeling choice behavior. Market. Lett. 10, 187–203 (1999)
M. Ben-Akiva, J. Bottom, M.S. Ramming, Route guidance and information systems. Int. J. Syst. Contr. Engin. 215, 317–324 (2001)
M. Ben-Akiva, S.R. Lerman, Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1997)
P. Bonsall, P. Firmin, M. Anderson, I. Palmer, P. Balmforth, Validating the results of a route choice simulator. Transport. Res. C 5, 371–387 (1997)
P. Bonsall, The influence of route guidance advice on route choice in urban networks. Transportation 19, 1–23 (1992)
D. Challet, M. Marsili, Y.-C. Zhang, Modeling market mechanism with minority game. Physica A 276, 284–315 (2000)
D. Challet, Y.-C. Zhang, Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game. Physica A 246, 407ff (1997)
D. Challet, Y.-C. Zhang, On the minority game: Analytical and numerical studies. Physica A 256, 514–532 (1998)
P.S.-T. Chen, K.K. Srinivasan, H.S. Mahmassani, Effect of information quality on compliance behavior of commuters under real-time traffic information. Transport. Res. Record 1676, 53–60 (1999)
Y.-W. Cheung, D. Friedman, Individual learning in normal form games: Some laboratory results. Games Econ. Behav. 19(1), 46–76 (1997)
I. Erev, A.E. Roth, Predicting how people play games: Reinforcement learning in experimental games with unique, mixed strategy equilibria. Am. Econ. Rev. 88(4), 848–881 (1998)
D. Fudenberg, D. Levine, The Theory of Learning in Games (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1998)
S. Ghashghaie, W. Breymann, J. Peinke, P. Talkner, Y. Dodge, Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets. Nature 381, 767–770 (1996)
R. Hall, Route choice and advanced traveler information systems on a capacitated and dynamic network. Transport. Res. C 4, 289–306 (1996)
D. Helbing, M. Schönhof, D. Kern, Volatile decision dynamics: Experiments, stochastic description, intermittency control, and traffic optimization. New J. Phys. 4, 33.1–33.16 (2002)
D. Helbing, A section-based queueing-theoretical traffic model for congestion and travel time analysis, J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 36(46), L593-L598 (2003)
D. Helbing, Traffic and related self-driven many-particle systems. Rev. Mod. Phys. 73, 1067–1141 (2001)
D. Helbing, Quantitative Sociodynamics (and references therein) (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, 1995)
D. Helbing, Stochastische Methoden, nichtlineare Dynamik und quantitative Modelle sozialer Prozesse (Shaker, Aachen, 1996)
J.B. van Huyck, J.P. Cook, R.C. Battlio, Selection dynamics, asymptotic stability, and adaptive behavior. J. Pol. Econ. 102(5), 975–1005 (1994)
J.B. van Huyck, R.C. Battlio, R.O. Beil, Tacit coordination games, strategic uncertainty, and coordination failure. Am. Econ. Rev. 80(1), 234–252 (1990)
Y. Iida, T. Akiyama, T. Uchida, Experimental analysis of dynamic route choice behavior. Transport. Res. B 26, 17–32 (1992)
A. Khattak, A. Polydoropoulou, M. Ben-Akiva, Modeling revealed and stated pretrip travel response to advanced traveler information systems. Transport. Res. Record 1537, 46–54 (1996)
H.N. Koutsopoulos, A. Polydoropoulou, M. Ben-Akiva, Travel simulators for data collection on driver behavior in the presence of information. Transport. Res. C 3, 143–159 (1995)
M. Kraan, H.S. Mahmassani, N. Huynh, Traveler Responses to Advanced Traveler Information Systems for Shopping Trips: Interactive Survey Approach. Transport. Res. Record 1725, 116 (2000)
R.D. Kühne, K. Langbein-Euchner, M. Hilliges, N. Koch, Evaluation of compliance rates and travel time calculation for automatic alternative route guidance systems on freeways. Transport. Res. Record 1554, 153–161 (1996)
T. Lux, M. Marchesi, Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market. Nature 397, 498–500 (1999)
M.W. Macy, A. Flache, Learning dynamics in social dilemmas. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99(Suppl. 3), 7229–7236 (2002)
H.S. Mahmassani, D.-G. Stephan, Experimental investigation of route and departure time choice dynamics of urban commuters. Transport. Res. Records 1203, 69–84 (1988)
H.S. Mahmassani, R. Jayakrishnan, System performance and user response under real-time information in a congested traffic corridor. Transport. Res. A 25, 293–307 (1991)
H.S. Mahmassani, R.C. Jou, Transferring insights into commuter behavior dynamics from laboratory experiments to field surveys. Transport. Res. A 34, 243–260 (2000)
R.N. Mantegna, H.E. Stanley, Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance (Cambridge University, Cambridge, England, 1999)
J. Nachabar, Prediction, optimization, and learning in repeated games. Econometrica 65, 275–309 (1997)
S. Nakayama, R. Kitamura, Route Choice Model with Inductive Learning. Transport. Res. Record 1725, 63–70 (2000)
J. de D. Ortúzar, L.G. Willumsen, Modelling Transport, Chap. 7: Discrete-Choice Models (Wiley, Chichester, 1990)
M. Schreckenberg, R. Selten (eds.), Human Behaviour and Traffic Networks (Springer, Berlin, 2004)
M. Schreckenberg, R. Selten, T. Chmura, T. Pitz, J. Wahle, Experiments on day-to-day route choice (and references therein), e-print http://vwitme011.vkw.tu-dresden.de/TrafficForum/journalArticles/tf01080701.pdf, last accessed on March 8, 2012
K.K. Srinivasan, H.S. Mahmassani, Modeling Inertia and Compliance Mechanisms in Route Choice Behavior Under Real-Time Information. Transport. Res. Record 1725, 45–53 (2000)
J. Wahle, A. Bazzan, F. Klügl, M. Schreckenberg, Decision dynamics in a traffic scenario. Physica A 287, 669–681 (2000)
J. Wahle, A.L.C. Bazzan, F. Klügl, M. Schreckenberg, Anticipatory traffic forecast using multi-agent techniques, in Traffic and Granular Flow ’99, ed. by D. Helbing, H.J. Herrmann, M. Schreckenberg, D.E. Wolf (Springer, Berlin, 2000), pp. 87–92
Acknowledgements
This study was partially supported by the ALTANA-Quandt foundation. The author wants to thank Prof. Aruka, Prof. Selten, and Prof. Schreckenberg for their invitations and fruitful discussions, Prof. Kondor and Dr. Schadschneider for inspiring comments, Tilo Grigat for preparing some of the illustrations, Martin Schönhof and Daniel Kern for their help in setting up and carrying out the decision experiments, and the test persons for their patience and ambitious playing until the end of our experiments. Hints regarding manuscript-related references are very much appreciated.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Helbing, D. (2012). Response to Information. In: Helbing, D. (eds) Social Self-Organization. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-24004-1_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-24004-1_13
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-24003-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-24004-1
eBook Packages: Physics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy (R0)