Abstract
The subject of technology succession and new technology adoption in a generalized sense has been addressed by numerous authors for over one hundred years. Models which accommodate macro-level events as well as micro-level actions are needed to gain insight to future market outcomes. In the ICT industry, macro-level factors affecting technology adoption include global events and shocks, economic factors, and global regulatory trends. Micro-level elements involve individual agent actions and interactions, such as the behaviors of buyers and suppliers in reaction to each other, and to macro events. Projecting technology adoption and software market composition and growth requires evaluating a special set of technology characteristics, buyer behaviors, and supplier issues and responses which make this effort particularly challenging.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Bibliography
Arthur, W. Brian, “Complexity and the Economy”. Science, 2 April 1999, 284, 107–109.
Arthur, W. Brian, “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in by Historical Events”. The Economic Journal, 99, (March 1989), pp. 116–131.
Arthur, W. Brian & Wolfgang Polak, “The Evolution of Technology within a Simple Computer Model”. Santa Fe: Santa Fe Institute, December 17, 2004.
Bonabeau, Eric, “Don’t Trust Your Gut”. Cambridge: Harvard Business Review, May, 2003.
Bonabeau, Eric, “Agent-based modeling: methods and techniques for simulating human systems”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol.99, suppl. 3, May 14, 2002.
Correia, Joanne, and Mertz, Sharon “CRM Market Trends”. Gartner. Inc.: Gartner Customer Relationship Management Summit, San Diego, October, 2005.
David, Paul A. “Clio and the Economics of QWERTY”. Economic History, Vol. 75 No.2, pp. 332–337, May, 1985
Farrell, Joseph, and Garth Saloner, “Standardization, Compatibility, and Innovation”. M.I.T. Working Paper #345, April, 1984.
Feiman, J., Kirwin, B., Morello, D. and Redman, P. “Enterprise Personality Profile: Dimensions and Descriptors”. Gartner, Inc., ID Number: COM-22-3417, March 16, 2004.
Haines, Michael, “The Enterprise Personality Profile Builds Sales Insight”. Gartner, Inc., ID Number: G00122510, September 2, 2004.
Katz, Michael L., and Carl Shapiro, “Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities”. The University of Chicago: Journal of Political Economy, 1986, vol. 94, no. 4, pp. 822–841
Kirwin, B., Feiman, J., Morello, D. and Redman, P. “Enterprise Personality Profile: How Did We Get There?”. Gartner, Inc., ID Number: COM-22-3093, March 16, 2004
Windrum, Paul, “Unlocking a lock-in: towards a model of technological succession”. Maastricht: Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology
Windrum, Paul & Chris Birchenhall, “Technological diffusion, welfare and growth: technological succession in the presence of network externalities”. Maastricht: Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology, MERIT Infonomics Research Memorandum Series, 2002.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer
About this paper
Cite this paper
Mertz, S.A., Groothuis, A., Fellman, P.V. (2010). Dynamic Modeling of New Technology Succession: Projecting the Impact of Macro Events and Micro Behaviors On Software Market Cycles. In: Minai, A., Braha, D., Bar-Yam, Y. (eds) Unifying Themes in Complex Systems. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-85081-6_52
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-85081-6_52
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-85080-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-85081-6
eBook Packages: Physics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy (R0)