Research on Space-Time Prediction Model and Criteria for High Altitude Slope in the First Stage Jinping Hydropower Station

Abstract

Landslide is one of the ubiquitous geological disasters, and calamity brought by landslide often is shocking by sight. In order to avoid or alleviate the disasters brought by landslide, it is feasible to predicate and take effective measures for landslide in advance. At the present time, scholars in home and abroad have brought forward many prediction models, methods and criteria. All of them are focusing on the prediction of where, when and the intensity (destroy intensity of landslides) of landslides will happen. Prediction methods and criteria are the key contents in the landslide forecasting and prediction. Based on the summarization of the productions of landslide prediction, this paper systematically investigates the applicability of these predictions in depth. And based on the monitoring fruits of left bank high altitude slope in the first stage Jinping hydropower station, time-space comprehensive prediction is proposed and a comprehensive prediction model and criteria adaptive to high altitude slope in the first stage Jinping hydropower station is designed. It is useful to build a forewarning system for potential slope failure.