Abstract
Climate change remains to be a key concern for the future sustainability of humanity. Based on the research of ecological water demand (EWD) in China, this paper estimates China’s EWD in the view of ecological subsystem, and we propose a system dynamics model to analyse the complex interaction of varied EWD factors and parameters. To access the impact of climate change on EWD, we model with probable scenarios for precipitation and temperature from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Ultimately, the model simulates and forecasts the tendency of EWD in four subsystems for a 50-year period. With legitimate proposal provided for managers, complementary policies and strategies are supposed to be taken to improve conditions and prevent risks.
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Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71771157, 71301109), Soft Science Program of Sichuan Province (Grant No. 2017ZR0154), Funding of Sichuan University (Grant No. skqx201726), and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (Grant No. 2017M610609).
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Li, J., Liu, T., Hashim, M., Yao, L. (2019). System Dynamics Modeling: The Impact of Climate Change on China’s Ecological Water Forecast Evaluation. In: Xu, J., Cooke, F., Gen, M., Ahmed, S. (eds) Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management. ICMSEM 2018. Lecture Notes on Multidisciplinary Industrial Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93351-1_104
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93351-1_104
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