Abstract
Geological hazards such as debris flows or deep-seated landslides can cause major economic damage and endanger human lives. In order to warn people living in a hazardous area during extreme meteorological events that may trigger debris flows or landslides, in many parts of the world different early warning systems (EWS) have been developed and installed. Empirical rainfall thresholds can be applied as a part of advanced early warning systems. This study combines two concepts: (i) empirical rainfall thresholds and (ii) intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, that both include information about rainfall duration and rainfall intensity. The IDF curves were constructed using a copula function. Post-event analysis of several extreme events in Slovenia, Europe, in the last 25 years was carried out. The triggering conditions responsible for the initiation of the extreme events were investigated, and several empirical rainfall thresholds were tested. It was found that different meteorological conditions were responsible for triggering deep-seated and shallow landslides. A comparison between empirical rainfall thresholds and IDF curves indicated that some thresholds correspond to a return period significantly smaller than two years. If the IDF curves are incorporated into the early warning systems, this will mean that warnings can be issued with a corresponding probability.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
References
Aleotti P (2004) A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures. Eng Geol 73:247–265
Ariff NM, Jemain AA, Ibrahim K, Zin WZW (2012) IDF relationships using bivariate copula for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia. J Hydrol 470:158–171
Bezak N, Šraj M, Brilly M, Mikoš M (2015) Return Period Determination for Several Extreme Rainfall- Induced Events Using the IDF Relationship Obtained via Copulas. In: 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP12 (324), pp 1–8
Bezak N, Šraj M, Mikoš M (2016) Copula-based IDF curves and empirical rainfall thresholds for flash floods and rainfall-induced landslides. J Hydrol. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.058
Caine N (1980) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows. Geografiska Annaler Ser A Phys Geogr 62:23–27
Clarizia M, Gullà G, Sorbino G (1996) Sui meccanismi di innesco dei soil slip. In: international conference prevention of hydrogeological hazards: the role of scientific research vol 1, pp 585–597
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe. Meteorol Atmos Phys 98:239–267
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2008) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5:3–17
Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (2005) Regional frequency analysis: an approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 244 p
Kojadinovic I, Yan J (2010) Modeling multivariate distributions with continuous margins using the copula R package. J Stat Softw 34(9):1–20
Koutsoyiannis D, Kozonis D, Manetas A (1998) A mathematical framework for studying rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships. J Hydrol 206:118–135
Logar J, Bizjak KF, Kočevar M, Mikoš M, Ribičič M, Majes B (2005) History and present state of the Slano Blato landslide. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 5:447–457
Mikoš M, Fazarinc R, Pulko B, Petkovšek A, Majes B (2005) Stepwise mitigation of the Macesnik landslide, N Slovenia. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 5:947–958
Petkovšek A, Fazarinc R, Kočevar M, Maček M, Majes B, Mikoš M (2011) The Stogovce landslide in SW Slovenia triggered during the September 2010 extreme rainfall event. Landslides 8:499–506
Rusjan S, Kobold M, Mikoš M (2009) Characteristics of the extreme rainfall event and consequent flash floods in W Slovenia in September 2007. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 9:947–956
Salvadori G, De Michele C, Kottegoda NT, Rosso R (2007) Extremes in nature: an approach using copulas. Springer, Berlin, 292 p
Segoni S, Battistini A, Rossi G, Lagomarsino D, Catani F, Moretti S, Casagli N (2015) Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space–time-variable rainfall thresholds. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sc 15:853–861
Singh VP, Zhang L (2007) IDF curves using the Frank Archimedean copula. J Hydrol Eng 12:651–662
TXT-tool 2.386-2.2 2016. A system to forecast rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia (this book)
Acknowledgements
Authors wish to thank the Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO) for rainfall data provision. The results of the study are part of the Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering (UL FGG) work on the European research project SedAlp (www.sedalp.eu), jointly financed by the European Union through the Alpine Space program, and by the Slovenian Research Agency (ARRS) through the Research Programme P2-0180 Water science and technology, and Geotechnics.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Bezak, N., Brilly, M., Šraj, M., Mikoš, M. (2018). TXT-tool 2.386-1.1 Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows Using Copula Functions. In: Sassa, K., et al. Landslide Dynamics: ISDR-ICL Landslide Interactive Teaching Tools . Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57774-6_32
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57774-6_32
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-57773-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-57774-6
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)