Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

An Incremental Multi-Modelling Method to Simulate Systems of Cities’ Evolution

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Urban Dynamics and Simulation Models

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Morphogenesis ((LECTMORPH))

Abstract

Explaining the evolution of urban systems at large spatio-temporal scales is uneasy. Processes are frequently unobserved empirically and equifinality is a challenge for any generative explanation models. We try to address the causation challenge in urban modelling by proposing a multi-modelling framework for the comparison of several model structures. Each structure represents a combination of mechanisms translating alternative or complementary hypotheses about the processes at play. This approach implies that the conception, implementation and evaluation of the model(s) integrate a diversity of mechanisms. Their contribution to the explanation of urbanization is evaluated in time and space by confronting models to empirical data through an interactive visualization platform. We argue that multi-modelling can provide an alternative way to account for the possible causes generating observed patterns, between traditional approaches such as 1/simple models focusing on a single cause (as is often the case for proving a theory) or 2/very complex models including all possible mechanisms at once (as it might prevent from distinguishing their individual contribution).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 99.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 129.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 129.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Accounting for knowledge spillovers for example.

  2. 2.

    The logistic curve was estimated on empirical urban and regional demographic data between 1959 and 2010 for 108 regions of the Former Soviet Union (cf. Cottineau 2014b).

  3. 3.

    http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1108081.

  4. 4.

    http://openmole.org/.

  5. 5.

    http://shiny.parisgeo.cnrs.fr/VARIUS.

  6. 6.

    https://github.com/ClementineCttn/VARIUS.

  7. 7.

    http://www.veb.ru/common/upload/files/veb/br/mono/list342.pdf.

References

  • Auchincloss, A.H., Roux, A.V.D.: A New Tool for Epidemiology: The Usefulness of Dynamic-Agent Models in Understanding Place Effects on Health. Am. J. of epidem. 168(1), 1–8 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  • Baccaïni, B., Pumain, D.: Les migrations dans le systéme des villes françaises de 1982 á 1990. Population 53(5), 947–977 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Batty, M., Vargas-Ruiz, C., Smith, D., Serras, J., Reades, J., Johansson, A.: Visually intelligible land use transportation models for the rapid assessment of urban futures. CASA Working Paper vol. 163 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • Batty, M., Torrens, P.M.: Modelling and prediction in a complex world. Futures 37(7), 745–766 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bretagnolle,.A., Pumain, D.: Simulating urban networks through multiscalar space-time dynamics: Europe and the united states, 17–20th centuries. Urban Stud. 47(13), 2819–2839 (2010). 00043

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brockerhoff, M.: Urban growth in developing countries: a review of projections and predictions. Popul. Dev. Rev. 25(4), 757–778 (1999). 00067

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bura, S., Guérin-Pace, F., Mathian, H., Pumain, D., Sanders, L.: Multiagent systems and the dynamics of a settlement system. Geogr. Anal. 28(2), 161–178 (1996). 00160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christaller, W. (1933). Die zentralen Orte in Süddeutschland: eine ökonomisch-geographische Untersuchung über die Gesetzmässigkeit der Verbreitung und Entwicklung der Siedlungen mit städtischen Funktionen. Jena, Fischer. 00316

    Google Scholar 

  • Conte, R., Gilbert, N., Bonelli, G., Cioffi-Revilla, C., Deffuant, G., Kertesz, J., Loreto, V., Moat, S., Nadal, J.P., Sanchez, A., Nowak, A., Flache, A., San Miguel, M., Helbing, D.: Manifesto of computational social science. Eur. Phys. J.: Spec. Topics 214, 325–346 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Contractor, N., Whitbred, R., Fonti, F., Hyatt, A., O’Keefe, B., Jones, P.: Structuration theory and self-organizing networks. In: Organization Science Winter Conference, Keystone, CO (2000) 00017

    Google Scholar 

  • Cottineau, C.: DARIUS Database (2014a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cottineau, C.: L’évolution des villes dans l’espace post-soviétique. Observation et modélisations. PhD thesis, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (2014b) 00001

    Google Scholar 

  • Cottineau, C., Chapron, P., Reuillon, R.: Growing models from the bottom up. an evaluation-based incremental modelling method (ebimm) applied to the simulation of systems of cities. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social. Simulation 18(4), 9 (2015a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cottineau, C., Reuillon, R., Chapron, P., Rey-Coyrehourcq, S., Pumain, D.: A modular modelling framework for hypotheses testing in the simulation of urbanisation. Systems 3(4), 348 (2015b)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Durand-Dastès, F.: Les concepts de la modélisation en analyse spatiale. Paris, Hermés, Lavoisier (2001) 00000

    Google Scholar 

  • Duranton, G., Puga, D.: Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies. Handbook Reg. Urban Econ. 4(2063–2117), 01533 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  • Epstein, J.M., Axtell, R.L.: Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up. MIT press, Cambridge (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  • Galster, G.C.: The mechanism(s) of neighbourhood effects: Theory, evidence, and policy implications. In Neighbourhood effects research: New perspectives. Springer pp. 23–56 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Fotheringham, A.S.: Spatial structure and distance-decay parameters. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 71(3), 425–436 (1981). 00302

    Google Scholar 

  • Grimm, V., Railsback, S.F.: Pattern-oriented modelling: a multi-scope for predictive systems ecology. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B, Biol. Sci. 367(1586), 298–310 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hermann, C.F.: Validation problems in games and simulations with special reference to models of international politics. Behav. Sci. 12(3), 216–231 (1967)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krugman, P.: Confronting the mystery of urban hierarchy. J. Japn. Int. Econ. 10(4), 399–418 (1996a). 00228

    Google Scholar 

  • Krugman, P.: Urban concentration: the role of increasing returns and transport costs. Int. Reg.Sci. Rev. 19(1–2), 5–30 (1996b). 00333

    Google Scholar 

  • Lotka, A.J.: Elements of Physical Biology. Williams & Wilkins Company, Baltimore (1925)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lucas, C. Steyaert, P.: Modular inheritance of objects through mixin-methods. In Proceedings of the 1994 Joint Modular Languages Conference (JMLC); Ulm, German, 28–30 September, pp. 273–282 (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin, R.: Rebalancing the spatial economy: the challenge for regional theory. Terri. Polit. Gov. 3(3), 235–272 (2015). 00001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nitsch, V.: Zipf zipped. J. Urban Econ. 57(1), 86–100 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Openshaw, S.: From data crunching to model crunching: the dawn of a new era. Environ. Plann. A 15(8), 1011–1012 (1983)

    Google Scholar 

  • Openshaw, S.: Building an Automated Modeling System to Explore a Universe of Spatial Interaction Models. Geographical Analysis 20(1) (1988)

    Google Scholar 

  • Prehofer, C.: Feature-oriented programming: A fresh look at objects. In ECOOP’97 Object-Oriented Programming; Springer: Berlin and Heidelberg, German, pp. 419–443 (1997)

    Google Scholar 

  • Preston, S.H.: Urban growth in developing countries: a demographic reappraisal. Popul. Dev. Rev. 5(2), 195–215 (1979). 00231

    Google Scholar 

  • Pumain, D.: Pour une théorie évolutive des villes. Espace géographique 26(2), 119–134 (1997). 00138

    Google Scholar 

  • Pumain, D. (ed.): Hierarchy in Natural and Social Sciences. Methodos Series. Springer, Berlin (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  • Pumain, D., Paulus, F., Vacchiani-Marcuzzo, C., Lobo, J.: An evolutionary theory for interpreting urban scaling laws. Cybergeo: Eur. J. Geogr. (2006) 00000

    Google Scholar 

  • Reynaud, J.: Villes. Encyclopédie nouvelle 8, 670–687 (1841). 00034

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenthal, S.S., Strange, W.C.: The determinants of agglomeration. J. Urban Econ. 50(2), 191–229 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanders, L.: Intelligence artificielle et agents collectifs: le modèle EUROSIM. In: SAGEO 2005, Colloque International de Góomatique et d’Analyse Spatiale, pp. XX. Collection, Actes Avignon, CD-ROM (2005). ISBN 2-910545-067

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmitt, C., Rey-Coyrehourcq, S., Reuillon, R., Pumain, D.: Half a billion simulations: evolutionary algorithms and distributed computing for calibrating the SimpopLocal geographical model (preprint). Planning and Design, Environment and Planning B (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Spulber, D.F.: Global Competitive Strategy, vol. 00091. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2007)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Steyaert, P., Codenie, W., D’Hondt, T., de Hondt, K., Lucas, C., van Limberghan, M.: Nested mixin-methods in Agora. In ECOOP’93?Object-Oriented Programming; Springer: Berlin and Heidelberg, German, pp. 197–219 (1993)

    Google Scholar 

  • Thiele, J.C. (2015). Replicating and breaking models: good for you and good for ecology. Oikos, (January):1–6

    Google Scholar 

  • Tufte, E.R.: The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Graphics Pr, 2nd edn (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ullman, E.L.: A theory of location for cities. Am. J. Soc. 46(6), 853–864 (1941)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne and UMR Géographie-Cités, Paris, France

    Denise Pumain

  2. CNRS, UMR Géographie-Cités and Institut des Systémes Complexes Paris-Ile-de-France, Paris, France

    Romain Reuillon

Authors
  1. Denise Pumain
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Romain Reuillon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Denise Pumain .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Pumain, D., Reuillon, R. (2017). An Incremental Multi-Modelling Method to Simulate Systems of Cities’ Evolution. In: Urban Dynamics and Simulation Models. Lecture Notes in Morphogenesis. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46497-8_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation