Demographic Forecasting for Local Governments in Queensland, Australia – Difficult, But Effective

Abstract

In Australia, demographic projections are available at national, state and local level through Census, Bureau of Statistics and variety of institutes, however, demographic projections for smaller areas of local government/County/Shire/Council/Municipality are often developed by the Local government authority.

In Queensland, Australia, basic demographic information on dwellings and population can easily be extracted from various Council resources. The availability of databases on Property tax rates and property development status as well as technological advances like Queensland Globe, Open-Data, Google Street-view, regular aerial view updates and the like have made validating demographic forecasts feasible. It has become an effective desktop exercise to model land use across the local government area. Broader statistics provide information on trends in dwellings and population at local government level. Physical constraints are mapped and shared by various government agencies. Land uses are guided by local governments via planning schemes and development codes. Through a “attractor and detractor” analysis, projections for next 15 years are provided in quinquennial cycles. Considering all of the above inputs, it is possible to project what is achievable for a given Council area down to the lot level. Basic forecasts on land use, dwellings & population can be developed efficiently for local governments in Queensland because of data availability and consistent structure and functioning of local governments. Forecasts can be regularly updated depending on the size of local government, although the task is relatively less complex and often more accurate for smaller Councils. This chapter describes forecast methods based on government agency data, methods that have been regularly applied over a number of years by various Councils.