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Climate Change Impact on the Establishment of the Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS)

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Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences

Part of the book series: Springer Atmospheric Sciences ((SPRINGERATMO))

Abstract

Climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the main climatic parameters that are related to the suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS). In this work, the future potentiality of IMS spread and establishment over Greece and Italy is assessed following four steps. In the first step, current Spatial Risk Databases for the establishment of IMS over Greece and Italy are developed using the meteorological parameters from the ECA&D project. In the second step, changes in the climatic parameters in 2050s are estimated using the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. In the third step, the mesoscale meteorological model WRF is used, to simulate the changes in the meteorological fields caused by climate change in a finer grid size using dynamical regional downscaling. Finally, in the fourth step, the estimated changes in the meteorological parameters from step three are combined with the observation data from step one in order to estimate the future level of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product is spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Results suggest that future climatic conditions will favor IMS spread and establishment over Greece and Italy.

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Acknowledgments

LIFE CONOPS project “Development & demonstration of management plans against—the climate change enhanced—invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe” (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Research Laboratory, NCSR Demokritos, 15310, Athens, Greece

    E. Tagaris & R. E. P. Sotiropoulou

  2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Western Macedonia, 50100, Kozani, Greece

    R. E. P. Sotiropoulou

  3. Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Western Macedonia, 50100, Kozani, Greece

    R. E. P. Sotiropoulou

  4. Terra Nova Ltd., Environmental Engineering Consultancy, 11527, Athens, Greece

    A. Sotiropoulos & I. Spanos

  5. Department of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, Benaki Phytopathological Institute, 14561, Kifisia, Greece

    P. Milonas & A. Michaelakis

Authors
  1. E. Tagaris
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  2. R. E. P. Sotiropoulou
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  3. A. Sotiropoulos
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  4. I. Spanos
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  5. P. Milonas
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  6. A. Michaelakis
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. E. P. Sotiropoulou .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Dept. of Meteorology and Climatology, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Theodore Karacostas

  2. Dept. of Applied & Environmental Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Dept. of Applied & Environmental Physics, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Alkiviadis Bais

  3. Geography and Climatology, University of Athens Geography and Climatology, Athens, Greece

    Panagiotis T. Nastos

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Tagaris, E., Sotiropoulou, R.E.P., Sotiropoulos, A., Spanos, I., Milonas, P., Michaelakis, A. (2017). Climate Change Impact on the Establishment of the Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS). In: Karacostas, T., Bais, A., Nastos, P. (eds) Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences. Springer Atmospheric Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-35095-0_98

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