Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Biases in Micro-level Probabilistic Reasoning and Its Impact on the Spectators’ Enjoyment of Tennis Games

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Intelligent Technologies for Interactive Entertainment (INTETAIN 2023)

  • 44 Accesses

Abstract

In sports games, the excitement and suspense felt by the spectators are essential to their entertainment experience. The level of excitement and suspense is linked to the spectators’ reasoning about the probability of winning or losing. In tennis, as in many other sports, spectators’ predictions of winning probabilities largely hinge on the scores. Given tennis’s hierarchical scoring system, its probabilistic reasoning is multifaceted and complex. This research examines the winning probabilities across various scoring scenarios, using data from thousands of professional tennis matches and comparing them with theoretical models generally aligned with spectators’ common beliefs. The analysis reveals that the theoretical model makes accurate probability predictions at the macro level but inaccurate predictions at the micro level, pointing to possible biases in micro-level probabilistic reasoning. A recent behavioral economic theory may help explain the causes of such biases. Biases are generally seen as undesirable errors, but this study offers a counterargument that biases in micro-level probabilistic reasoning actually enhance the enjoyment of tennis matches by creating expectations, anxiety, and surprises.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 69.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Abinzano, I., Muga, L., Santamaria, R.: Game, set and match: the favourite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges. Appl. Econ. Lett. 23, 605–608 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1093074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Altman, H.J.R., Altman, M., Torgler, B.: Behavioural sports economics : a research companion. Routledge (2021)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Antony, J.W., Hartshorne, T.H., Pomeroy, K., Gureckis, T.M., Hasson, U., McDougle, S.D., Norman, K.A.: Behavioral, physiological, and neural signatures of surprise during naturalistic sports viewing. Neuron 109, 377-390.e7 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2020.10.029

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Šarčević, A., Vranić, M., Pintar, D.: A combinatorial approach in predicting the outcome of tennis matches. Int. J. Appl. Math. Comput. Sci. 31, 525–538 (2021). https://doi.org/10.34768/amcs-2021-0036

  5. Barnett, T., Brown, A., Clarke, S.: Developing a tennis model that reflects outcomes of tennis matches. In: Proceedings of the 8th Australasian Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sport (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Benjamin, D.J.: Errors in probabilistic reasoning and judgment biases. In: Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Applications and Foundations 1, vol. 2, pp. 69–186. North-Holland (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/BS.HESBE.2018.11.002

  7. Bordalo, P., Conlon, J.J., Gennaioli, N., Kwon, S.Y., Shleifer, A.: Memory and probability. Q. J. Econ. 138, 265–311 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJAC031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Clore, G.L., Ortony, A.: Psychological construction in the OCC model of emotion. Emot. Rev. 5, 335 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1177/1754073913489751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Coates, D., Humphreys, B.R.: Behavioral and sports economics. Handbook of Behavioral Industrial Organization, pp. 307–342 (2018). https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784718985.00019

  10. Enke, B., Graeber, T.: Cognitive uncertainty. Working Paper 26518, National Bureau of Economic Research (2019). https://doi.org/10.3386/w26518

  11. Forrest, D., McHale, I.: Anyone for tennis (betting)? Europ. J. Finance 13, 751–768 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1080/13518470701705736, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470701705736

  12. Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., Kahneman, D.: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., Tversky, A.: The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences. Cogn. Psychol. 17, 295–314 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Hall, A.E.: Entertainment-oriented gratifications of sports media: contributors to suspense, hedonic enjoyment, and appreciation. J. Broadcast. Electron. Media 59, 259–277 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1080/08838151.2015.1029124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Jurejko, J.: Us open 2023: Lily Miyazaki wins on New York main-draw debut. BBC (8 2023). https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/66642122

  16. Knobloch-Westerwick, S.S., David, P., Eastin, M.S., Tamborini, R., Greenwood, D.: Sports spectators’ suspense: affect and uncertainty in sports entertainment. J. Commun. 59, 750–767 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2009.01456.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Kovalchik, S.A.: Searching for the goat of tennis win prediction. J. Quan. Anal. Sports 12(3), 127–138 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2015-0059

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Lahvička, J.: What causes the favourite-longshot bias? further evidence from tennis. Appl. Econ. Lett. 21, 90–92 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.842628

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Štefan Lyócsa, Výrost, T.: To bet or not to bet: a reality check for tennis betting market efficiency. Appl. Econom. 50, 2251–2272 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1394973

  20. O’Malley, A.J.: Probability formulas and statistical analysis in tennis. J. Quan. Anal. Sports 4 (2008). https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1100

  21. Ortony, A., Clore, G.L., Collins, A.: The Cognitive Structure of Emotions. Cambridge University Press (1988)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Peterson, E.M., Raney, A.A.: Reconceptualizing and reexamining suspense as a predictor of mediated sports enjoyment. J. Broadcast. Electron. Media 52, 544–562 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1080/08838150802437263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Pronin, E.: Perception and misperception of bias in human judgment. Trends Cogn. Sci. 11, 37–43 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2006.11.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Raney, A.A.: Why we watch and enjoy mediated sports. In: Handbook of Sports and Media, pp. 313–329. Lawrence Erlbaum (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Raney, A.A.: Reflections on communication and sport: on enjoyment and disposition. Commun. Sport 1(1–2), 164–175 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1177/2167479512467979

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Sackmann, J.: The match charting project. http://www.tennisabstract.com/ 30 Aug 2023

  27. Sarcevic, A., Vranic, M., Pintar, D., Krajna, A.: Predictive modeling of tennis matches: a review. In: Proceedings of the 45th Jubilee International Convention on Information, Communication and Electronic Technology, pp. 1099–1104. IEEE (2022). https://doi.org/10.23919/MIPRO55190.2022.9803645

  28. Shafer, D.M.: Investigating suspense as a predictor of enjoyment in sports video games. J. Broadcast. Electron. Media 58, 272–288 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1080/08838151.2014.906432

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Simon, H.A.: Models of Man. Wiley (1957)

    Google Scholar 

  30. Su-lin, G., Tuggle, C.A., Mitrook, M.A., Coussement, S.H., Zillmann, D.: The thrill of a close game: Who enjoys it and who doesn’t? J. Sport Soc. Issues 21(1), 53–64 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1177/019372397021001004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Tversky, A., Kahneman, D.: Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124–1131 (1974). https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.185.4157.1124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Tversky, A., Kahneman, D.: Probabilistic reasoning. In: Goldman, A. (ed.) Readings in Philosophy and Cognitive Science, pp. 43–68. MIT Press (1993)

    Google Scholar 

  33. Zillmann, D.: The psychology of suspense in dramatic exposition. In: Suspense, pp. 199–231. Routledge (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  34. Zillmann, D., Bryant, J., Sapolsky, B.S.: Enjoyment from sports spectatorship. In: Sports, Games, and Play. Psychology Press, 2nd edn. (1988)

    Google Scholar 

  35. Zillmann, D., Paulus, P.B.: Spectators: reactions to sports events and effects on athletic performance. Handbook of research on sport psychology, pp. 600–619 (1993)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgement

The author is deeply grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their many insightful comments and suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tennis Analyzer App, Atlanta, USA

    Stephen Zhu

Authors
  1. Stephen Zhu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stephen Zhu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Durham University, Durham, UK

    Martin Clayton

  2. University of Milano Bicocca, Milan, Italy

    Mauro Passacantando

  3. University of Genova, Genova, Genova, Italy

    Marcello Sanguineti

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2024 ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Zhu, S. (2024). Biases in Micro-level Probabilistic Reasoning and Its Impact on the Spectators’ Enjoyment of Tennis Games. In: Clayton, M., Passacantando, M., Sanguineti, M. (eds) Intelligent Technologies for Interactive Entertainment. INTETAIN 2023. Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, vol 560. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-55722-4_9

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-55722-4_9

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-55721-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-55722-4

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation