Abstract
We conclude our book by discussing developments since the 2021 federal election—the AfD’s national poll numbers since 2021, its election results at the state and local level, and the party’s recent party gathering in preparation for European Parliament elections in May of 2024. Overall, these trends highlight the continued electoral strength of the AfD as well as its regional dominance in eastern Germany. Not only does the AfD not show any signs of disappearing, it has also made gains in public opinion polls—and in local elections—unseen by any previous far-right party in Germany. Next, we turn our attention in this final chapter to the challenges that the AfD might confront in the future as the party aims to sustain its success or even grow further. Here we identify three interrelated challenges that the AfD could face: voter alienation, platform cooptation by political rivals, and the lack of a true crisis to exploit. While discussing these challenges we also identify potential strategies the party could take to circumvent them, as well as identify new issues the party is attempting to make its own.
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Notes
- 1.
The most prominent far-right institution recognizing the reality of climate change as well as a response (albeit limited) to climate change is the Institut für Staatspolitik at Schellroda, a far-right think-tank run by Götz Kubitschek, who has ties to both the anti-Islamic organization PEGIDA as well as to the AfD. The publishing house Oikos, run out of Schnellroda, publishes the environmental magazine Die Kehre which, although deeply hostile to the Greens, champions a far-right ecologism which recognizes the need for action on climate change. For a discussion of this, see Forchtner and Olsen (2023).
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Hansen, M.A., Olsen, J. (2024). Conclusion: Issue Entrepreneurship and the Future of the AfD. In: Political Entrepreneurship in the Age of Dealignment. New Perspectives in German Political Studies. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-50890-5_9
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