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Optimal Spare Management via Statistical Model Checking: A Case Study in Research Reactors

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Formal Methods for Industrial Critical Systems (FMICS 2023)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNCS,volume 14290))

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Abstract

Systematic spare management is important to optimize the twin goals of high reliability and low costs. However, existing approaches to spare management do not incorporate a detailed analysis of the effect on the absence of spares on the system’s reliability. In this work, we combine fault tree analysis with statistical model checking to model spare part management as a stochastic priced timed game automaton (SPTGA). We use Uppaal  Stratego to find the number of spares that minimizes the total costs due to downtime and spare purchasing; the resulting SPTGA model can then additionally be analyzed according to other metrics like expected availability. We apply these techniques to the emergency shutdown system of a research nuclear reactor. Our methods find the optimal spare management for a subsystem in a matter of minutes, minimizing cost while ensuring an expected availability of 99.96%.

This work has been partially funded by the NWO grant NWA.1160.18.238 (PrimaVera), by the ERC Consolidator Grant 864075 (CAESAR) and by EU Horizon 2020 project MISSION, number 101008233.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Reza Soltani, Matthias Volk, Milan Lopuhaä-Zwakenberg & Mariëlle Stoelinga

  2. INVAP SE, Bariloche, Argentina

    Leonardo Diamonte

  3. Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    Mariëlle Stoelinga

Authors
  1. Reza Soltani
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  2. Matthias Volk
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  3. Leonardo Diamonte
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  4. Milan Lopuhaä-Zwakenberg
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  5. Mariëlle Stoelinga
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Correspondence to Reza Soltani .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo, Italy

    Alessandro Cimatti

  2. NASA Langley Research Center, AMA-NASA LaRC, Hampton, VA, USA

    Laura Titolo

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Soltani, R., Volk, M., Diamonte, L., Lopuhaä-Zwakenberg, M., Stoelinga, M. (2023). Optimal Spare Management via Statistical Model Checking: A Case Study in Research Reactors. In: Cimatti, A., Titolo, L. (eds) Formal Methods for Industrial Critical Systems. FMICS 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14290. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43681-9_12

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43681-9_12

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