Abstract
There is always pressure on water availability due to increasing levels of societal demand and from economic activities. Hence, understanding the effect of climate change on various components of the water cycle is crucial in management of this resource. To devise sustainable water resource strategies, seeing how much change in climate and land-use/land cover (LULC) affects hydrologic regimes can help decision-makers to incorporate necessary measures in the policy instruments. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of climate coupled with land-use change on Kalna river flow situated in North Goa. The assessment involved temporal rainfall analysis to understand the historical trends. Further, future climate and land-use change projections were evaluated to comprehend the impact on the river flow. An ensemble of models was used for future predictions. For climate modeling, the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) was used under two scenarios that included RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The land-use change was simulated using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Finally, hydrological modeling was done using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results from NorESM and LCM were used as an input to SWAT model to predict future flow for Kalna River.
The historical trend in rainfall was statistically scrutinized using Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope method. Average annual rainfall data from India Meteorological Department rain gauge station at Mapusa for the period between 1980 and 2018 was used. An increasing linear trend was observed which was supported by Kendall’s tau and Q (Sen’s slope) indicating strong positive correlation between rainfall and duration. The land-use change analysis was done using satellite images of 1993, 2014 and 2019 map for validation. A Kappa co-efficient of 0.73 indicated acceptable accuracy. Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network was used for prediction of land-use for 2030 and 2040. These two future land-use maps were used as an input and SWAT model was calibrated for the years 2011 to 2015 and validated for 2016 to 2018. Two statistical measures, Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and R2 with value of 0.7 showed goodness of calibration. It was then used to predict the future streamflow till 2050. As compared to baseline average monsoon rainfall data (26.87 mm), the future projections under both RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) scenarios indicate an increase in rainfall and streamflow. This increase in average streamflow is more pronounced in RCP 4.5 as compared to RCP 8.5. As per the LCM projections, the forest area is likely to decrease by 2040 with a distinct increase of 14% in barren land owing to quarrying and mining activities. The decrease in the forest cover along with changing climate decreases the streamflow clearly demonstrating the importance of the green cover. Currently, around 10% of the water required by the water treatment plant at Chandel is extracted from Kalna River. Based on the simulations, site-specific recommendations are given to aid in the strategic planning of this watershed.
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Acknowledgements
Authors gratefully acknowledge Water Resources Department, Government of Goa, for providing the financial support and data to carry out this study. We thank India Meteorological Department, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for sharing the data. We sincerely acknowledge the timely suggestions extended by Dr. Nandagiri (Professor, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal).
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Panandiker, A.P., Venkatesh, B., Gude, S., Mahender, K., Chachadi, A.G. (2022). Examination of Historical Trends and Future Projections for Climate and Land-use Variables and its Impacts on Kalna River Flow in Goa, India. In: Phartiyal, B., Mohan, R., Chakraborty, S., Dutta, V., Gupta, A.K. (eds) Climate Change and Environmental Impacts: Past, Present and Future Perspective. Society of Earth Scientists Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-13119-6_18
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