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Stability and Resonant Periodicity

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Epidemics

Part of the book series: Use R! ((USE R))

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Abstract

The rabies virus infects a wide range of mammalian carnivores across the world with spillovers to non-competent hosts including humans. While not always classified as rabies, there are a wide range of related lyssaviruses of bats that can also spill over to humans. These viruses are transmitted from saliva during aggressive encounters involving biting.

This chapter uses the following R packages: nleqslv and polspline.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    In this context, non-competent means host species that has no onward transmission; Sect. 15.1 will discuss interspecific spillover in more detail.

  2. 2.

    Recall the incubation period is the time to onset of symptoms, while the latent period is the time to new pathogen presentation such as to be ready for onward transmission.

  3. 3.

    And a “center” that produces amplitude-neutral oscillations like that seen in the Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model if it has only imaginary parts.

  4. 4.

    NB: Unstable equilibria will not be found with this protocol, and if there are more than one steady state (as discussed further in Chap. 11), only one will show up depending on chosen initial conditions.

  5. 5.

    The notation has been changed from the original publication to conform to conventions in the current text.

  6. 6.

    Note again how initial values are log-transformed in start, the first line in the function is x = exp(logx), and the last line returns dS/S, etc., in place of dS that comes from the chain-rule of differentiation and the fact that \(D(\log x) = 1/x\).

  7. 7.

    This equation stems from the result that if \(\tilde {\mathbf {X}}(\varpi )\) denotes the Fourier transform of the vector of state variables, the transform of \(\frac {d\mathbf {X}}{dt}\) will be \(\tilde {\mathbf {X}}(\varpi ) \imath \varpi \); rearranging in matrix form yields \(\tilde {\mathbf {X}}(\varpi ) = \tilde {\mathbf {T}}(\varpi ) \tilde {\mathbf {A}}(\varpi )\). For discrete-time systems, the transfer function is \(\tilde {\mathbf {T}}(\varpi ) = (\tilde {\mathbf {I}}-e^{-\imath \varpi } \tilde {\mathbf {J}})^{-1} \tilde {\mathbf {A}(\varpi )}\) because the Fourier transform of X t−1 is \(\tilde {\mathbf {X}}(\varpi ) e^{-\imath \varpi }\) (see example 2 below).

  8. 8.

    In addition to the discussions in Chap. 6, Chap. 11 will elaborate on the many ways linearized predictions break down when strong nonlinearities govern epidemic clockworks.

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Bjørnstad, O. (2023). Stability and Resonant Periodicity. In: Epidemics. Use R!. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12056-5_10

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