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Lloyd A. Metzler (1913–1980)

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Abstract

Despite his acknowledged brilliance, Lloyd Metzler has perhaps become one of the more overlooked former members of the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, an institution where he spent most of his career. Metzler was something of an outlier at Chicago in so far as he was regarded as having Keynesian sympathies at a time when the Department was transitioning to monetarism and free market economics. He nevertheless stands out for his seminal work on money, interest, and prices, as well as important contributions to international trade theory, business cycles, and mathematical economics.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Given his Keynesian sympathies, it is unclear why Metzler did not return to Harvard after the war, where Hansen would continue to teach until 1962. Samuelson states that Metzler went to Yale with ‘mixed feelings’ (Samuelson in Lloyd Metzler Memorial Service (1980), PAS Papers, David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library, Duke University: Box 53).

  2. 2.

    Metzler was offered a position at Chicago after Samuelson decided to turn down an appointment at his alma mater following concerns that he had only been offered a job by head of department Theodore Schultz so that he would act as a counterweight to Friedman. The idea of Samuelson and Friedman in the same department at the height of their powers presents considerable food for thought for historians of economic thought interested in counterfactual history. Either way, there seems to have been some toing and froing in the process which eventually led to Metzler’s appointment at Chicago, with Metzler writing to Samuelson in February 1947 that he had in fact turned down what was presumably an initial offer from Chicago on the grounds of inadequate compensation (see Metzler to Samuelson, 11 February 1947, Paul A. Samuelson Papers (hereafter PAS Papers), David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library, Duke University: Box 53).

  3. 3.

    A particularly notable contribution in this regard was Fritz Machlup’s International Trade and the National Income Multiplier, which appeared shortly after Metzler’s article in 1943. Metzler’s piece was more sophisticated in its treatment of stability, although Machlup’s volume devoted greater space to comparative statics. Metzler (1945a) is a broadly favourable review of Machlup’s contribution, even if does criticise the lack of policy analysis.

  4. 4.

    As Flanders (1989: 286–287) notes, Metzler definition of stability was not one which implied zero unemployment or balance of payments equilibrium but rather a situation where there is no explosion in income.

  5. 5.

    The transfer problem has arguably become one of the most studied questions in economics. Apart from Keynes, Ohlin and Metzler, notable contributions have included Pigou (1932), Samuelson (1952, 1954), Johnson (1956), Mundell (1960a) and Dixit (1983).

  6. 6.

    Reflecting the fact that he had not yet moved far enough forward with the ideas that would culminate in The General Theory, Keynes’s approach to the transfer problem was a distinctly classical one (see Ellis and Metzler 1950: xi).

  7. 7.

    This table is the more succinct summary that Metzler provided in his 1951 article of his earlier two-country findings.

  8. 8.

    “A Multiple-Country Theory of Income Transfers” appears in “Part IV. Mathematical Economics and Statistics” of Metzler’s Collected Papers because of its significant mathematical content. “The Transfer Problem Reconsidered” is in “Part I. The Theory of International Trade”. It contains no mathematics apart from a short technical appendix. However, as both papers address the same issue, they are considered together here.

  9. 9.

    The Metzler paradox is in contrast to the Lerner paradox, which states that a tariff on an imported good can worsen the importing country’s terms of trade (see Lerner 1936). Lerner (ibid.: 310–311) had in fact already recognised what became known as the Metzler paradox, but only in the case where the government spends most of the revenues it receives from an import tariff.

  10. 10.

    Along with Bickerdike (1920) and Robinson (1937), Metzler (1949c) was one of the foundational contributions to the elasticity approach to the balance of payments encapsulated in the Bickerdike-Robinson-Metzler condition, which states that, within a partial equilibrium setting, the elasticities of import and export supply and demand together with the initial volume of trade determine movements in the foreign exchange value of the trade balance. Given certain assumptions, Negishi (1968) argues that the condition may also hold in general equilibrium.

  11. 11.

    The Laursen-Metzler effect has become better known as the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect.

  12. 12.

    For other examples where the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect is discussed in relation to current account dynamics, see Persson and Svensson (1985), Sen and Turnovsky (1989), Mansoorian (1993), Backus (1993), and Backus et al. (1994).

  13. 13.

    Metzler (1960) was also notable for containing a diagram which for the first time showed the joint determination of savings, investment and the interest rate in two countries.

  14. 14.

    In line with his modest character, Metzler first presented this paper to a meeting of the graduate students’ Political Economy Club at Chicago in October 1950.

  15. 15.

    Apart from stressing the importance of whether created money was “inside” or “outside”, “Wealth, Saving, and the Rate of Interest” made other important contributions. For example, as Patinkin (1956: 154) noted, the article appears to have been the first to use a “phase diagram” to describe the Keynesian system as represented in an IS-LM diagram.

  16. 16.

    Metzler was heavily influenced by Scandinavian economists’ work on lags, which he acknowledged in private correspondence with Lundberg and Heckscher (see Fleming 1994: 100).

  17. 17.

    This comment was made in a review of Measuring Business Cycles in which Metzler objected to Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell’s adoption of the so-called measurement without theory approach favoured by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). He repeated this objection a year later in a review (Metzler 1948b) of another NBER publication, Price-Quantity Interactions in Business Cycles, by Frederick Mills.

  18. 18.

    Metzler also appears to have worked on a book, provisionally entitled The Mathematical Basis of Dynamic Economics, although it was never published.

References

Main Works by Lloyd A. Metzler

  • Ellis, H.S. and L.A. Metzler (1950). ‘Introduction’. In H.S. Ellis and L.A. Metzler (eds) Readings in the Theory of International Trade. Homewood, Il.: Richard D. Irwin: vii–xiv.

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  • Hinshaw, R. and L.A. Metzler (1945). ‘World Prosperity and the British Balance of Payments’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 27(4): 156–170.

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  • Laursen, S. and L.A. Metzler (1950). ‘Flexible Exchange Rates and the Theory of Employment’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 32(4): 281–299. Reprinted as Chapter 11 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 275–307.

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  • Laursen, S. and L.A. Metzler (1954). ‘The Employment-Insulating Advantages of Flexible Exchange Rates: A Comment on Professors Laursen and Metzler: Reply’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 36(2): 228–229.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1940). ‘The Assumptions Implied in Least Squares Demand Techniques’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 22(3): 138–149. Reprinted as Chapter 24 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 575–598.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1941). ‘The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 23(3): 113–129. Reprinted as Chapter 15 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 393–427.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1942a). ‘Underemployment Equilibrium in International Trade’. Econometrica, 10(2): 97–112. Reprinted as Chapter 10 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 258–274.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1942b). ‘The Transfer Problem Reconsidered’. Journal of Political Economy, 50(3): 397–414. Reprinted as Chapter 2 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 50–69.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1942). ‘Interregional Income Generation’. PhD dissertation, Harvard University.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1943). ‘Effects of Income Redistribution’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 25(1): 49–57.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1945a). ‘Review of International Trade and the National Income Multiplier, by F. Machlup’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 27(1): 39–41.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1945b). ‘Stability of Multiple Markets: The Hicks Conditions’. Econometrica, 13(4): 277–292. Reprinted as Chapter 20 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 499–515.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1946). ‘Business Cycles and the Modern Theory of Employment’. American Economic Review, 36(3): 278–291. Reprinted as Chapter 19 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 482–496.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1947a). ‘Exchange Rates and the International Monetary Fund’. In L.A. Metzler et al., International Monetary Policies. Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: 1–45. Reprinted as Chapter 5 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 112–158.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1947b). ‘Factors Governing the Length of Inventory Cycles’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 29(1): 1–15. Reprinted as Chapter 17 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 440–464.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1947c). ‘Review of Measuring Business Cycles, by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell’. Social Research, 14(3): 370–377.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1947). ‘Keynes and the Theory of Business Cycles’. Chapter XXXIII in S. Harris (ed.) The New Economics: Keynes’ Influence on Theory and Public Policy. New York: Knopf: 436–449.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1948a). ‘Three Lags in the Circular Flow of Income’. Chapter I, Part I in L.A. Metzler et al., Income, Employment and Public Policy. New York: W.W. Norton: 11–32. Reprinted as Chapter 18 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 465–481.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1948b). ‘Review of Price-Quantity Interactions in Business Cycles, by F.C. Mills’. Social Research, 15(3): 388–390.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1949a). ‘Tariffs, the Terms of Trade, and the Distribution of National Income’. Journal of Political Economy, 57(1): 1–29. Reprinted as Chapter 6 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 159–197.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1949b). ‘Tariffs, International Demand, and Domestic Prices’. Journal of Political Economy, 57(4): 345–351. Reprinted as Chapter 7 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 198–208.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1949c). ‘The Theory of International Trade’. Chapter 6 in H.S. Ellis (ed.) A Survey of Contemporary Economics. Volume 1. Homewood, Ill.: Richard D. Irwin: 210–254. Reprinted as Chapter 1 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 1–49.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1949). ‘Exchange-Rate Stability Considered’. Econometrica, 17(Supplement): 109–111.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1950a). ‘Graham’s Theory of International Values’. American Economic Review, 40(3): 301–322. Reprinted as Chapter 9 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 234–257.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1950b). ‘The Rate of Interest and the Marginal Product of Capital’. Journal of Political Economy, 58(4): 289–306. Reprinted as Chapter 14 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 363–389.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1950). ‘A Multiple-Region Theory of Income and Trade’. Econometrica, 18(4): 329–354. Reprinted as Chapter 21 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 516–544.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1951a). ‘A Multiple-Country Theory of Income Transfers’. Journal of Political Economy, 59(1): 14–29. Reprinted as Chapter 22 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 545–567.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1951b). ‘Wealth, Saving, and the Rate of Interest’. Journal of Political Economy, 59(2): 93–116. Reprinted as Chapter 12 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 311–344.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1951c). ‘Taxes and Subsidies in Leontief’s Input-Output Model’. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 65(3): 433–438. Reprinted as Chapter 23 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 568–574.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1952). ‘The Rate of Interest: A Reply’. Journal of Political Economy, 60(3): 249–252.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1960). ‘The Process of International Adjustment Under Conditions of Full Employment: A Keynesian View’. Delivered before the Econometric Society, December 1960. Reprinted as Chapter 28 in R.E. Caves and H.G. Johnson (eds) Readings in International Economics (1968). Homewood, Ill.: Richard D. Irwin: 465–486. Also reprinted as Chapter 8 in L.A. Metzler (1973a) Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 209–233.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1973a). Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1973b). ‘The Structure of Taxes, Open-Market Operations, and the Rate of Interest’. Chapter 13 in L.A. Metzler, Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 345–362.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1973). ‘Imported Raw Materials, the Transfer Problem, and the Concepts of Income’. Chapter 3 in L.A. Metzler, Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 70–94.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1973). ‘Flexible Exchange Rates, the Transfer Problem, and the Balanced-Budget Theorem’. Chapter 4 in L.A. Metzler, Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 95–111.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1973). ‘Partial Adjustment and the Stability of Inventory Cycles’. Chapter 16 in L.A. Metzler, Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: 428–439.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1979). ‘The Colm-Dodge-Goldsmith Plan, Appendix O: Recent Experience with Monetary and Financial Reform’. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 135(3): 365–373.

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  • Metzler, L.A. (1979). ‘The Colm-Dodge-Goldsmith Plan, Appendix N: Considerations Regarding the Foreign Exchange Rate for the Deutsche Mark’. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 135(3): 474–479.

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    Robert A. Cord

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Cord, R.A. (2022). Lloyd A. Metzler (1913–1980). In: Cord, R.A. (eds) The Palgrave Companion to Chicago Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-01775-9_21

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